An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water vapor and water vapor transport fields are compared between the U.S. West Coast (WCUS) and the SEUS, highlighting stronger seasonal variation in integrated water vapor in the SEUS and stronger seasonal variation in IVT in the WCUS. The climatological analysis suggests that IVT values above ~500 kg m(-1) s(-1) (as incorporated into an objective identification tool such as the AR detection tool used here) may serve as a sensible threshold for defining ARs in the SEUS. Atmospheric river impacts on heavy precipitation in the SEUS are shown to vary on an annual cycle, and a connection between ARs and heavy precipitation during the nonsummer months is demonstrated. When identified ARs are matched to heavy precipitation days (>100 mm day(-1)), an average match rate of ~41% is found. Results suggest that some aspects of an AR identification framework in the SEUS may offer benefit in forecasting heavy precipitation, particularly at medium- to longer-range forecast lead times. However, the relatively high frequency of SEUS heavy precipitation cases in which an AR is not identified necessitates additional careful consideration and incorporation of other critical aspects of heavy precipitation environments such that significant predictive skill might eventually result.
Creamean, J. M.; White, A. B.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D. A.; Prather, K. A.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
Description:
Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
Zawislak, J.; Jiang, H. Y.; Alvey, G. R.; Zipser, E. J.; Rogers, R. F.; Zhang, J. A.; Stevenson, S. N.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
Description:
The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
Turney, C. S. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lister, D.; Jones, P.; Williams, A. N.; Hogg, A.; Thomas, Z. A.; Compo, G. P.; Yin, X. G.; Fogwill, C. J.; Palmer, J.; Colwell, S.; Allan, R.; Visbeck, M.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Environmental Research Letters, 11(6), 064009.
Description:
Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational record...
The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 - "How does the Earth system respond to forcing?" - suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in c...
This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(6), 2705-2718.
Description:
An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over ...
Hobbins, M. T.; Wood, A.; McEvoy, D. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Morton, C.; Anderson, M.; Hain, C.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(6), 1745-1761.
Description:
Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analyses and products that reflect the evaporative dynamics of drought. The linkage bet...
Cox, C. J.; Uttal, T.; Long, C. N.; Shupe, M. D.; Stone, R. S.; Starkweather, S.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6581-6596.
Description:
Recent studies suggest that the atmosphere conditions arctic sea ice properties in spring in a way that may be an important factor in predetermining autumn sea ice concentrations. Here, the role of clouds in this system is analyzed using surface-base...
The question of whether ocean coupling matters for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere atmospheric response to projected late 21st century Arctic sea ice loss is addressed using a series of experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 ...
Uttal, T.; Starkweather, S.; Drummond, J. R.; Vihma, T.; Makshtas, A. P.; Darby, L. S.; Burkhart, J. F.; Cox, C. J.; Schmeisser, L. N.; Haiden, T.; Maturilli, M.; Shupe, M. D.; De Boer, G.; Saha, A.; Grachev, A. A.; Crepinsek, S. M.; Bruhwiler, L.; Goodison, B.; McArthur, B.; Walden, V. P.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Persson, P. O. G.; Lesins, G.; Laurila, T.; Ogren, J. A.; Stone, R.; Long, C. N.; Sharma, S.; Massling, A.; Turner, D. D.; Stanitski, D. M.; Asmi, E.; Aurela, M.; Skov, H.; Eleftheriadis, K.; Virkkula, A.; Platt, A.; Forland, E. J.; Iijima, Y.; Nielsen, I. E.; Bergin, M. H.; Candlish, L.; Zimov, N. S.; Zimov, S. A.; O'Neill, N. T.; Fogal, P. F.; Kivi, R.; Konopleva-Akish, E. A.; Verlinde, J.; Kustov, V. Y.; Vasel, B.; Ivakhov, V. M.; Viisanen, Y.; Intrieri, J. M.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(6), 1033-1056.
Description:
International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA) activities and partnerships were initiated as a part of the 2007-09 International Polar Year (IPY) and are expected to continue for many decades as a legacy program. The IASOA focus is...
Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
Description:
Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
Description:
Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
The future rate of climate change in mountains has many potential human impacts, including those related to water resources, ecosystem services, and recreation. Analysis of the ensemble mean response of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) shows amplif...
Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were used to explore relationships between large-scale synoptic conditions, especially vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT), and extreme precipitation events in the U.S. Intermountain West (IMW). By examining ...
Bakker, D. C. E.; Pfeil, B.; Landa, C. S.; Metzl, N.; O'Brien, K. M.; Olsen, A.; Smith, K.; Cosca, C.; Harasawa, S.; Jones, S. D.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; Schuster, U.; Steinhoff, T.; Sweeney, C.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; Wada, C.; Wanninkhof, R.; Alin, S. R.; Balestrini, C. F.; Barbero, L.; Bates, N. R.; Bianchi, A. A.; Bonou, F.; Boutin, J.; Bozec, Y.; Burger, E. F.; Cai, W. J.; Castle, R. D.; Chen, L. Q.; Chierici, M.; Currie, K.; Evans, W.; Featherstone, C.; Feely, R. A.; Fransson, A.; Goyet, C.; Greenwood, N.; Gregor, L.; Hankin, S.; Hardman-Mountford, N. J.; Harlay, J.; Hauck, J.; Hoppema, M.; Humphreys, M. P.; Hunt, C.; Huss, B.; Ibanhez, J. S. P.; Johannessen, T.; Keeling, R.; Kitidis, V.; Kortzinger, A.; Kozyr, A.; Krasakopoulou, E.; Kuwata, A.; Landschutzer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefevre, N.; Lo Monaco, C.; Manke, A.; Mathis, J. T.; Merlivat, L.; Millero, F. J.; Monteiro, P. M. S.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Newberger, T.; Omar, A. M.; Ono, T.; Paterson, K.; Pearce, D.; Pierrot, D.; Robbins, L. L.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J.; Schlitzer, R.; Schneider, B.; Schweitzer, R.; Sieger, R.; Skjelvan, I.; Sullivan, K. F.; Sutherland, S. C.; Sutton, A. J.; Tadokoro, K.; Telszewski, M.; Tuma, M.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Ward, B.; Watson, A. J.; Xu, S. Q.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Earth System Science Data, 8(2), 383-413.
Description:
The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis of quality-controlled fCO(2) (fugacity of carbon dioxide) values for the global surface oceans and coastal seas with regular updates. Version 3 of SOCAT has 14.7 million fCO(2) values from 3646 data ...
Pettersen, C.; Bennartz, R.; Kulie, M. S.; Merrelli, A. J.; Shupe, M. D.; Turner, D. D.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(7), 4743-4756.
Description:
Multi-instrument, ground-based measurements provide unique and comprehensive data sets of the atmosphere for a specific location over long periods of time and resulting data compliment past and existing global satellite observations. This paper explo...
Bianco, L.; Djalalova, I. V.; Wilczak, J. M.; Cline, J.; Calvert, S.; Konopleva-Akish, E.; Finley, C.; Freedman, J.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Weather and Forecasting, 31(4), 1137-1156.
Description:
A wind energy Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) has been developed out of recognition that during significant ramp events (large changes in wind power Delta p over short periods of time Delta t) it is more difficult to balance the electric load with power ...
Matrosov, S. Y.; Cifelli, R.; Neiman, P. J.; White, A. B.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
Description:
S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
Hoell, A.; Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Wolter, K.; Dole, R.; Perlwitz, J.; Xu, T. Y.; Cheng, L. Y.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, 43(2), 819-825.
Description:
The sensitivity of California precipitation to El Nino intensity is investigated by applying a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations to estimate how November-April precipitation probability distributions vary across three categorizati...
MacDonald, A. E.; Clack, C. T. M.; Alexander, A.; Dunbar, A.; Wilczak, J.; Xie, Y. F.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 526-531.
Description:
Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces these emissions, but is subject to the variability of the weather. In the present study, we calcula...
United States, National Weather Service., Eastern Region,
Published Date:
2009
Series:
NOAA technical memorandum NWS ER ; 104
Description:
WFO Blacksburg first opened in 1994 as part of the National Weather Service modernization. With modernization, there was an increased emphasis on verification for Storm Data, published by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Fourteen years of fl...
Alexander, M. A.; Scott, J. D.; Swales, D.; Hughes, M.; Mahoney, K.; Smith, C. A.;
Published Date:
2015
Source:
Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16(3), 1184-1206.
Description:
Two methods were used to identify the paths of moisture transport that reach the U.S. Intermountain West (IMW) during heavy precipitation events in winter. In the first, the top 150 precipitation events at stations located within six regions in the I...
"The combination of a surface low-pressure system located along a stationary frontal boundary off the U.S. Southeast coast, a slow moving upper low to the west, and a persistent plume of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Joaquin resulted in...