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Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years
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  • Description:
    Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational records are relatively short but where high rates of warming have been experienced since records began. Here we interrogate recently developed monthly-resolved observational datasets from the Falkland Islands and South Georgia, and extend the records back using climate-sensitive peat growth over the past 6000 years. Investigating the subantarctic climate data with ERA-Interim and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, we find that a stepped increase in precipitation across the 1940s is related to a change in synoptic atmospheric circulation: a westward migration of quasi-permanent positive pressure anomalies in the South Atlantic has brought the subantarctic islands under the increased influence of meridional airflow associated with the Amundsen Sea Low. Analysis of three comprehensively multi-dated (using C-14 and Cs-137) peat sequences across the two islands demonstrates unprecedented growth rates since the mid-twentieth century relative to the last 6000 years. Comparison to observational and reconstructed sea surface temperatures suggests this change is linked to a warming tropical Pacific Ocean. Our results imply 'modern' South Atlantic atmospheric circulation has not been under this configuration for millennia.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
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    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
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    1. Variability in projected elevation dependent warming in boreal midlatitude winter in CMIP5 climate models and its potential drivers
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      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
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      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
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      Published:
      2016
      Source:
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analyses and products that reflect the evaporative dynamics of drought. The linkage bet...
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      Pincus, R.; Forster, P. M.; Stevens, B.;
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      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3447-3460.
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      Description:
      The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 - "How does the Earth system respond to forcing?" - suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in c...
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      Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M.;
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      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), 5345-5352.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use m...
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      2016
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      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(7), 4743-4756.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Multi-instrument, ground-based measurements provide unique and comprehensive data sets of the atmosphere for a specific location over long periods of time and resulting data compliment past and existing global satellite observations. This paper explo...
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    10. The relationships between insoluble precipitation residues, clouds, and precipitation over California's southern Sierra Nevada during winter storms
      Personal Author:
      Creamean, J. M.; White, A. B.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D. A.; Prather, K. A.;
      Published:
      2016
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      Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
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      Rowe, P. M.; Cox, C. J.; Walden, V.;
      Published:
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      Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 9(8), 3641-3659.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Polar regions are characterized by their remoteness, making measurements challenging, but an improved knowledge of clouds and radiation is necessary to understand polar climate change. Infrared radiance spectrometers can operate continuously from the...
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    12. Radar Rain-Rate Estimators and Their Variability due to Rainfall Type: An Assessment Based on Hydrometeorology Testbed Data from the Southeastern United States
      Personal Author:
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      2016
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      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Personal Author:
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      Published:
      2016
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Personal Author:
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Published:
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      Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(7), 1905-1914.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The upper Sacramento River watershed is vital to California's water supply and is susceptible to major floods. Orographic precipitation in this complex terrain involves both atmospheric rivers (ARs) and the Sierra barrier jet (SBJ). The south-southea...
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      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(4), 523-530.
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