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Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years
Filetype[PDF-2.73 MB]


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  • Personal Author:
  • Description:
    Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational records are relatively short but where high rates of warming have been experienced since records began. Here we interrogate recently developed monthly-resolved observational datasets from the Falkland Islands and South Georgia, and extend the records back using climate-sensitive peat growth over the past 6000 years. Investigating the subantarctic climate data with ERA-Interim and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, we find that a stepped increase in precipitation across the 1940s is related to a change in synoptic atmospheric circulation: a westward migration of quasi-permanent positive pressure anomalies in the South Atlantic has brought the subantarctic islands under the increased influence of meridional airflow associated with the Amundsen Sea Low. Analysis of three comprehensively multi-dated (using C-14 and Cs-137) peat sequences across the two islands demonstrates unprecedented growth rates since the mid-twentieth century relative to the last 6000 years. Comparison to observational and reconstructed sea surface temperatures suggests this change is linked to a warming tropical Pacific Ocean. Our results imply 'modern' South Atlantic atmospheric circulation has not been under this configuration for millennia.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Collection(s):
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Supporting Files:
    meta
    		application/octet-stream
    1. Reflectivity and Liquid Water Content Vertical Decomposition Diagrams to Diagnose Vertical Evolution of Raindrop Size Distributions
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      Published Date:
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      Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 33(3), 579-595.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      2016
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      Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
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      Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
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    3. The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irene to Aerosols and Ocean Coupling Simulations with WRF Spectral Bin Microphysics
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      2016
      Source:
      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(2), 467-486.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, the hurricane weakened much faster than was predicted. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurr...
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    4. Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity Intrusions during Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.
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      Description:
      The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
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    7. Future costcompetitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
      Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
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      MacDonald, A. E.; Clack, C. T. M.; Alexander, A.; Dunbar, A.; Wilczak, J.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published Date:
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      Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 526-531.
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      Description:
      Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces these emissions, but is subject to the variability of the weather. In the present study, we calcula...
    8. Understanding the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States
      Personal Author:
      Mahoney, K.; Jackson, D. L.; Neiman, P.; Hughes, M.; Darby, L.; Wick, G.; White, A.; Sukovich, E.; Cifelli, R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1617-1632.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water va...
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    9. Radar Rain-Rate Estimators and Their Variability due to Rainfall Type: An Assessment Based on Hydrometeorology Testbed Data from the Southeastern United States
      Personal Author:
      Matrosov, S. Y.; Cifelli, R.; Neiman, P. J.; White, A. B.;
      Published Date:
      2016
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      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
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    10. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted RegressionCorrected Forecasts
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      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    11. The Climate Change Web Portal: A System to Access and Display Climate and Earth System Model Output from the CMIP5 Archive
      Personal Author:
      Scott, J. D.; Alexander, M. A.; Murray, D. R.; Swales, D.; Eischeid, J.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(4), 523-530.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.44 MB]
    12. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 GEOS5
      Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5)
      Personal Author:
      Li, F.; Vikhliaev, Y. V.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.; Waugh, D. W.; Douglass, A. R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(9), 3199-3218.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the pres...
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    13. Modifications to the Rapid Update Cycle Land Surface Model (RUC LSM) Available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
      Personal Author:
      Smirnova, T. G.; Brown, J. M.; Benjamin, S. G.; Kenyon, J. S.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(5), 1851-1865.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The land surface model (LSM) described in this manuscript was originally developed as part of the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model development effort; with ongoing modifications, it is now used as an option for the WRF community model. The RUC mod...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.07 MB]
    14. The Role of Springtime Arctic Clouds in Determining Autumn Sea Ice Extent
      Personal Author:
      Cox, C. J.; Uttal, T.; Long, C. N.; Shupe, M. D.; Stone, R. S.; Starkweather, S.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6581-6596.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Recent studies suggest that the atmosphere conditions arctic sea ice properties in spring in a way that may be an important factor in predetermining autumn sea ice concentrations. Here, the role of clouds in this system is analyzed using surface-base...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.18 MB]
    15. Pathways to the Production of Precipitating Hydrometeors and Tropical Cyclone Development
      Personal Author:
      Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Grell, E. D.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(6), 2395-2420.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Pathways to the production of precipitation in two cloud microphysics schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are investigated in a scenario of tropical cyclone intensification. Comparisons of the results from the WRF Mo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 4.10 MB]
    16. The Physics of Drought in the US Central Great Plains
      The Physics of Drought in the US Central Great Plains
      Personal Author:
      Livneh, B.; Hoerling, M. P.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6783-6804.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The semiarid U.S. Great Plains is prone to severe droughts having major consequences for agricultural production, livestock health, and river navigation. The recent 2012 event was accompanied by record deficits in precipitation and high temperatures ...
      File Type:
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    17. Observations of the Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during Intensity Change. Part I: Relationship between the Thermodynamic Structure and Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Zawislak, J.; Jiang, H. Y.; Alvey, G. R.; Zipser, E. J.; Rogers, R. F.; Zhang, J. A.; Stevenson, S. N.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.96 MB]
    18. A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
      Personal Author:
      Benjamin, S. G.; Weygandt, S. S.; Brown, J. M.; Hu, M.; Alexander, C. R.; Smirnova, T. G.; Olson, J. B.; James, E. P.; Dowell, D. C.; Grell, G. A.; Lin, H. D.; Peckham, S. E.; Smith, T. L.; Moninger, W. R.; Kenyon, J. S.; Manikin, G. S.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1669-1694.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    19. Evaluation of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast in reanalysis data sets
      Personal Author:
      Jackson, D. L.; Hughes, M.; Wick, G. A.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(6), 2705-2718.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.51 MB]
    20. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.58 MB]
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