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Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years
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  • Description:
    Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational records are relatively short but where high rates of warming have been experienced since records began. Here we interrogate recently developed monthly-resolved observational datasets from the Falkland Islands and South Georgia, and extend the records back using climate-sensitive peat growth over the past 6000 years. Investigating the subantarctic climate data with ERA-Interim and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, we find that a stepped increase in precipitation across the 1940s is related to a change in synoptic atmospheric circulation: a westward migration of quasi-permanent positive pressure anomalies in the South Atlantic has brought the subantarctic islands under the increased influence of meridional airflow associated with the Amundsen Sea Low. Analysis of three comprehensively multi-dated (using C-14 and Cs-137) peat sequences across the two islands demonstrates unprecedented growth rates since the mid-twentieth century relative to the last 6000 years. Comparison to observational and reconstructed sea surface temperatures suggests this change is linked to a warming tropical Pacific Ocean. Our results imply 'modern' South Atlantic atmospheric circulation has not been under this configuration for millennia.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
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    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
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    1. Variability in projected elevation dependent warming in boreal midlatitude winter in CMIP5 climate models and its potential drivers
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      Rangwala, I.; Sinsky, E.; Miller, J. R.;
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      Source:
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      The future rate of climate change in mountains has many potential human impacts, including those related to water resources, ecosystem services, and recreation. Analysis of the ensemble mean response of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) shows amplif...
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      Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published:
      2016
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      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
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      Description:
      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
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      Jackson, D. L.; Hughes, M.; Wick, G. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(6), 2705-2718.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over ...
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      Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
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      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
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      Hobbins, M. T.; Wood, A.; McEvoy, D. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Morton, C.; Anderson, M.; Hain, C.;
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      2016
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      Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(6), 1745-1761.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analyses and products that reflect the evaporative dynamics of drought. The linkage bet...
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      Personal Author:
      Pincus, R.; Forster, P. M.; Stevens, B.;
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      2016
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      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3447-3460.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 - "How does the Earth system respond to forcing?" - suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in c...
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    8. What caused the recent "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern in winter temperatures?
      Personal Author:
      Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M.;
      Published:
      2016
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      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), 5345-5352.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use m...
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      Filetype[PDF - 2.72 MB]
    9. Microwave signatures of ice hydrometeors from ground-based observations above Summit, Greenland
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      Pettersen, C.; Bennartz, R.; Kulie, M. S.; Merrelli, A. J.; Shupe, M. D.; Turner, D. D.;
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      2016
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      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(7), 4743-4756.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Multi-instrument, ground-based measurements provide unique and comprehensive data sets of the atmosphere for a specific location over long periods of time and resulting data compliment past and existing global satellite observations. This paper explo...
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    10. The relationships between insoluble precipitation residues, clouds, and precipitation over California's southern Sierra Nevada during winter storms
      Personal Author:
      Creamean, J. M.; White, A. B.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D. A.; Prather, K. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
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    11. Toward autonomous surface-based infrared remote sensing of polar clouds: cloud-height retrievals
      Personal Author:
      Rowe, P. M.; Cox, C. J.; Walden, V.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 9(8), 3641-3659.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Polar regions are characterized by their remoteness, making measurements challenging, but an improved knowledge of clouds and radiation is necessary to understand polar climate change. Infrared radiance spectrometers can operate continuously from the...
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    12. Radar Rain-Rate Estimators and Their Variability due to Rainfall Type: An Assessment Based on Hydrometeorology Testbed Data from the Southeastern United States
      Personal Author:
      Matrosov, S. Y.; Cifelli, R.; Neiman, P. J.; White, A. B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
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      Published:
      2016
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
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    14. Mountain waves and orographic precipitation in a northern Colorado winter storm
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      Personal Author:
      Kingsmill, D. E.; Persson, P. O. G.; Haimov, S.; Shupe, M. D.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(695), 836-853.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Lynn, B. H.; Khain, A. P.; Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Yuan, T.; Kelman, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Shpund, J.; Benmoshe, N.;
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      2016
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      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(2), 467-486.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, the hurricane weakened much faster than was predicted. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurr...
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    16. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published:
      2016
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      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
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    17. Assessing the Calibration of HighDimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
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      Thorarinsdottir, T. L.; Scheuerer, M.; Heinz, C.;
      Published:
      2016
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      Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 25(1), 105-122.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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    18. A FourDimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
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      Personal Author:
      Lei, L. L.; Whitaker, J. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
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      Personal Author:
      Ralph, F. M.; Cordeira, J. M.; Neiman, P. J.; Hughes, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(7), 1905-1914.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The upper Sacramento River watershed is vital to California's water supply and is susceptible to major floods. Orographic precipitation in this complex terrain involves both atmospheric rivers (ARs) and the Sierra barrier jet (SBJ). The south-southea...
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      Filetype[PDF - 3.19 MB]
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      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(4), 523-530.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      File Type:
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