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Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years
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  • Description:
    Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational records are relatively short but where high rates of warming have been experienced since records began. Here we interrogate recently developed monthly-resolved observational datasets from the Falkland Islands and South Georgia, and extend the records back using climate-sensitive peat growth over the past 6000 years. Investigating the subantarctic climate data with ERA-Interim and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, we find that a stepped increase in precipitation across the 1940s is related to a change in synoptic atmospheric circulation: a westward migration of quasi-permanent positive pressure anomalies in the South Atlantic has brought the subantarctic islands under the increased influence of meridional airflow associated with the Amundsen Sea Low. Analysis of three comprehensively multi-dated (using C-14 and Cs-137) peat sequences across the two islands demonstrates unprecedented growth rates since the mid-twentieth century relative to the last 6000 years. Comparison to observational and reconstructed sea surface temperatures suggests this change is linked to a warming tropical Pacific Ocean. Our results imply 'modern' South Atlantic atmospheric circulation has not been under this configuration for millennia.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
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    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
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      Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 33(3), 579-595.
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      Description:
      The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1617-1632.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water va...
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      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
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      Published:
      2016
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      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
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      Journal of Climate, 29(9), 3199-3218.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(5), 1851-1865.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6581-6596.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Grell, E. D.;
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      2016
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(6), 2395-2420.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Personal Author:
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      Published:
      2016
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      Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6783-6804.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Personal Author:
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1669-1694.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental ...
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      Jackson, D. L.; Hughes, M.; Wick, G. A.;
      Published:
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      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
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      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
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      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
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