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THE EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION SUITE Toward a Coordinated US Modeling Capability
  • Published Date:
    2016
  • Source:
    Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(7), 1229-1247.
Filetype[PDF-3.30 MB]


  • Supporting Files:
    No Additional Files
    1. Impact of midnight thermosphere dynamics on the equatorial ionospheric vertical drifts
      Impact of midnight thermosphere dynamics on the equatorial ionospheric vertical drifts
      Personal Author:
      Fang, T. W.; Akmaev, R. A.; Stoneback, R. A.; Fuller-Rowell, T.; Wang, H.; Wu, F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 121(5), 4858-4868.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Recent satellite and ground-based observations have revealed the existence of upward drifts in the postmidnight equatorial ionosphere (similar to 0-3LT). The phenomenon has not been explained by theoretical models. Simulations using the Whole Atmosph...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 82.39 KB]
    2. Characteristics of acoustic gravity waves obtained from Dynasonde data
      Characteristics of acoustic gravity waves obtained from Dynasonde data
      Personal Author:
      Negrea, C.; Zabotin, N.; Bullett, T.; Fuller-Rowell, T.; Fang, T. W.; Codrescu, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 121(4), 3665-3680.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) are ubiquitous in the thermosphere-ionosphere and are often assumed to be caused by acoustic gravity waves (AGWs). This study performs an analysis of the TID and AGW activity above Wallops Island, VA, during ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 90.28 KB]
    3. On computation of Hough functions
      Personal Author:
      Wang, H. J.; Boyd, J. P.; Akmaev, R. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(4), 1477-1488.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Hough functions are the eigenfunctions of the Laplace tidal equation governing fluid motion on a rotating sphere with a resting basic state. Several numerical methods have been used in the past. In this paper, we compare two of those methods: normali...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.16 MB]
    4. Effect of data gaps: comparison of different spectral analysis methods
      Personal Author:
      Munteanu, C.; Negrea, C.; Echim, M.; Mursula, K.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Annales Geophysicae, 34(4), 437-449.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      In this paper we investigate quantitatively the effect of data gaps for four methods of estimating the amplitude spectrum of a time series: fast Fourier transform (FFT), discrete Fourier transform (DFT), Z transform (ZTR) and the Lomb-Scargle algorit...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 6.29 MB]
    5. Validation of an operational product to determine L1 to Earth propagation time delays
      Validation of an operational product to determine L1 to Earth propagation time delays
      Personal Author:
      Cash, M. D.; Hicks, S. W.; Biesecker, D. A.; Reinard, A. A.; de Koning, C. A.; Weimer, D. R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Space Weather-the International Journal of Research and Applications, 14(2), 93-112.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      We describe the development and validation of an operational space weather tool to forecast propagation delay times between L1 and Earth using the Weimer and King (2008) tilted phase front technique. A simple flat plane convection delay method is cur...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 90.39 KB]
    6. Mean spectral characteristics of acoustic gravity waves in the thermosphere-ionosphere determined from Dynasonde data
      Personal Author:
      Negrea, C.; Zabotin, N. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Radio Science, 51(3), 213-222.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Wave-like disturbances have been observed in the ionospheric plasma for several decades using a wide range of remote sensing techniques. In this paper, the use of Dynasonde-derived ionospheric tilt measurements is demonstrated to determine the domina...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.23 MB]
    7. High-latitude ionospheric conductivity variability in three dimensions
      High-latitude ionospheric conductivity variability in three dimensions
      Personal Author:
      McGranaghan, R.; Knipp, D. J.; Matsuo, T.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(15), 7867-7877.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      We perform the first ever global-scale, altitude-dependent analysis of polar ionospheric conductivity variability using spectrally resolved in situ satellite particle measurements. With an empirical orthogonal function analysis we identify three prim...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 83.37 KB]
    8. Optimal interpolation analysis of high-latitude ionospheric Hall and Pedersen conductivities: Application to assimilative ionospheric electrodynamics reconstruction
      Optimal interpolation analysis of high-latitude ionospheric Hall and Pedersen conductivities: Application to assimilative ionospheric electrodynamics reconstruction
      Personal Author:
      McGranaghan, R.; Knipp, D. J.; Matsuo, T.; Cousins, E.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 121(5), 4898-4923.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      We have developed a new optimal interpolation (OI) technique to estimate complete high-latitude ionospheric conductance distributions from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program particle data. The technique combines particle precipitation-based cal...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 84.19 KB]
    9. Pathways to the Production of Precipitating Hydrometeors and Tropical Cyclone Development
      Personal Author:
      Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Grell, E. D.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(6), 2395-2420.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Pathways to the production of precipitation in two cloud microphysics schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are investigated in a scenario of tropical cyclone intensification. Comparisons of the results from the WRF Mo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 4.10 MB]
    10. What caused the recent "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern in winter temperatures?
      Personal Author:
      Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), 5345-5352.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use m...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.72 MB]
    11. Examining moisture pathways and extreme precipitation in the US Intermountain West using self-organizing maps
      Personal Author:
      Swales, D.; Alexander, M.; Hughes, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(4), 1727-1735.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were used to explore relationships between large-scale synoptic conditions, especially vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT), and extreme precipitation events in the U.S. Intermountain West (IMW). By examining ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.05 MB]
    12. BRIDGING RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS TRANSITIONS Status and Plans of Community GSI
      Personal Author:
      Shao, H.; Derber, J.; Huang, X. Y.; Hu, M.; Newman, K.; Stark, D.; Lueken, M.; Zhou, C. H.; Nance, L.; Kuo, Y. H.; Brown, B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(8), 1427-+.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      With a goal of improving operational numerical weather prediction (NWP), the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) has been working with operational centers, including, among others, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oce...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1001.70 KB]
    13. Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
      Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
      Personal Author:
      Thorarinsdottir, T. L.; Scheuerer, M.; Heinz, C.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 25(1), 105-122.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Any decision-making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily requires a calibrated forecast. This article proposes new methods for empirically assessing forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the prob...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 40.72 KB]
    14. A Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      A Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      Personal Author:
      Lei, L. L.; Whitaker, J. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    15. Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 9.93 MB]
    16. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited
      Personal Author:
      Newman, M.; Alexander, M. A.; Ault, T. R.; Cobb, K. M.; Deser, C.; Di Lorenzo, E.; Mantua, N. J.; Miller, A. J.; Minobe, S.; Nakamura, H.; Schneider, N.; Vimont, D. J.; Phillips, A. S.; Scott, J. D.; Smith, C. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(12), 4399-4427.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within the meteorological and climate dynamics communities and is ce...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.80 MB]
    17. A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
      Personal Author:
      Benjamin, S. G.; Weygandt, S. S.; Brown, J. M.; Hu, M.; Alexander, C. R.; Smirnova, T. G.; Olson, J. B.; James, E. P.; Dowell, D. C.; Grell, G. A.; Lin, H. D.; Peckham, S. E.; Smith, T. L.; Moninger, W. R.; Kenyon, J. S.; Manikin, G. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1669-1694.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    18. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Personal Author:
      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    19. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6
      Personal Author:
      Pincus, R.; Forster, P. M.; Stevens, B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3447-3460.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 - "How does the Earth system respond to forcing?" - suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in c...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 158.64 KB]
    20. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.58 MB]
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