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THE EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION SUITE Toward a Coordinated US Modeling Capability
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    1. Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years
      Personal Author:
      Turney, C. S. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lister, D.; Jones, P.; Williams, A. N.; Hogg, A.; Thomas, Z. A.; Compo, G. P.; Yin, X. G.; Fogwill, C. J.; Palmer, J.; Colwell, S.; Allan, R.; Visbeck, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Environmental Research Letters, 11(6), 064009.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational record...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.73 MB]
    2. Variability in projected elevation dependent warming in boreal midlatitude winter in CMIP5 climate models and its potential drivers
      Personal Author:
      Rangwala, I.; Sinsky, E.; Miller, J. R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Climate Dynamics, 46(7-8), 2115-2122.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The future rate of climate change in mountains has many potential human impacts, including those related to water resources, ecosystem services, and recreation. Analysis of the ensemble mean response of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) shows amplif...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.52 MB]
    3. Optimal interpolation analysis of highlatitude ionospheric Hall and Pedersen conductivities Application to assimilative ionospheric electrodynamics reconstruction
      Optimal interpolation analysis of high-latitude ionospheric Hall and Pedersen conductivities: Application to assimilative ionospheric electrodynamics reconstruction
      Personal Author:
      McGranaghan, R.; Knipp, D. J.; Matsuo, T.; Cousins, E.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 121(5), 4898-4923.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      We have developed a new optimal interpolation (OI) technique to estimate complete high-latitude ionospheric conductance distributions from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program particle data. The technique combines particle precipitation-based cal...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 84.19 KB]
    4. Highlatitude ionospheric conductivity variability in three dimensions
      High-latitude ionospheric conductivity variability in three dimensions
      Personal Author:
      McGranaghan, R.; Knipp, D. J.; Matsuo, T.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(15), 7867-7877.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      We perform the first ever global-scale, altitude-dependent analysis of polar ionospheric conductivity variability using spectrally resolved in situ satellite particle measurements. With an empirical orthogonal function analysis we identify three prim...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 83.37 KB]
    5. Mean spectral characteristics of acoustic gravity waves in the thermosphere-ionosphere determined from Dynasonde data
      Personal Author:
      Negrea, C.; Zabotin, N. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Radio Science, 51(3), 213-222.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Wave-like disturbances have been observed in the ionospheric plasma for several decades using a wide range of remote sensing techniques. In this paper, the use of Dynasonde-derived ionospheric tilt measurements is demonstrated to determine the domina...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.23 MB]
    6. Impact of midnight thermosphere dynamics on the equatorial ionospheric vertical drifts
      Impact of midnight thermosphere dynamics on the equatorial ionospheric vertical drifts
      Personal Author:
      Fang, T. W.; Akmaev, R. A.; Stoneback, R. A.; Fuller-Rowell, T.; Wang, H.; Wu, F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 121(5), 4858-4868.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Recent satellite and ground-based observations have revealed the existence of upward drifts in the postmidnight equatorial ionosphere (similar to 0-3LT). The phenomenon has not been explained by theoretical models. Simulations using the Whole Atmosph...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 82.39 KB]
    7. Validation of an operational product to determine L1 to Earth propagation time delays
      Validation of an operational product to determine L1 to Earth propagation time delays
      Personal Author:
      Cash, M. D.; Hicks, S. W.; Biesecker, D. A.; Reinard, A. A.; de Koning, C. A.; Weimer, D. R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Space Weather-the International Journal of Research and Applications, 14(2), 93-112.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      We describe the development and validation of an operational space weather tool to forecast propagation delay times between L1 and Earth using the Weimer and King (2008) tilted phase front technique. A simple flat plane convection delay method is cur...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 90.39 KB]
    8. On computation of Hough functions
      Personal Author:
      Wang, H. J.; Boyd, J. P.; Akmaev, R. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(4), 1477-1488.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Hough functions are the eigenfunctions of the Laplace tidal equation governing fluid motion on a rotating sphere with a resting basic state. Several numerical methods have been used in the past. In this paper, we compare two of those methods: normali...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.16 MB]
    9. Characteristics of acoustic gravity waves obtained from Dynasonde data
      Characteristics of acoustic gravity waves obtained from Dynasonde data
      Personal Author:
      Negrea, C.; Zabotin, N.; Bullett, T.; Fuller-Rowell, T.; Fang, T. W.; Codrescu, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics, 121(4), 3665-3680.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) are ubiquitous in the thermosphere-ionosphere and are often assumed to be caused by acoustic gravity waves (AGWs). This study performs an analysis of the TID and AGW activity above Wallops Island, VA, during ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 90.28 KB]
    10. Effect of data gaps: comparison of different spectral analysis methods
      Personal Author:
      Munteanu, C.; Negrea, C.; Echim, M.; Mursula, K.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Annales Geophysicae, 34(4), 437-449.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      In this paper we investigate quantitatively the effect of data gaps for four methods of estimating the amplitude spectrum of a time series: fast Fourier transform (FFT), discrete Fourier transform (DFT), Z transform (ZTR) and the Lomb-Scargle algorit...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 6.29 MB]
    11. Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 9.93 MB]
    12. Evaluation of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast in reanalysis data sets
      Personal Author:
      Jackson, D. L.; Hughes, M.; Wick, G. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(6), 2705-2718.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.51 MB]
    13. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted RegressionCorrected Forecasts
      Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Personal Author:
      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    14. Future costcompetitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
      Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
      Personal Author:
      MacDonald, A. E.; Clack, C. T. M.; Alexander, A.; Dunbar, A.; Wilczak, J.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 526-531.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces these emissions, but is subject to the variability of the weather. In the present study, we calcula...
    15. The Evaporative Demand Drought Index. Part I: Linking Drought Evolution to Variations in Evaporative Demand
      Personal Author:
      Hobbins, M. T.; Wood, A.; McEvoy, D. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Morton, C.; Anderson, M.; Hain, C.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(6), 1745-1761.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analyses and products that reflect the evaporative dynamics of drought. The linkage bet...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 10.92 MB]
    16. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6
      Personal Author:
      Pincus, R.; Forster, P. M.; Stevens, B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3447-3460.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 - "How does the Earth system respond to forcing?" - suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in c...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 158.64 KB]
    17. What caused the recent "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern in winter temperatures?
      Personal Author:
      Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), 5345-5352.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use m...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.72 MB]
    18. Microwave signatures of ice hydrometeors from ground-based observations above Summit, Greenland
      Personal Author:
      Pettersen, C.; Bennartz, R.; Kulie, M. S.; Merrelli, A. J.; Shupe, M. D.; Turner, D. D.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(7), 4743-4756.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Multi-instrument, ground-based measurements provide unique and comprehensive data sets of the atmosphere for a specific location over long periods of time and resulting data compliment past and existing global satellite observations. This paper explo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.48 MB]
    19. The relationships between insoluble precipitation residues, clouds, and precipitation over California's southern Sierra Nevada during winter storms
      Personal Author:
      Creamean, J. M.; White, A. B.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D. A.; Prather, K. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.82 MB]
    20. Toward autonomous surface-based infrared remote sensing of polar clouds: cloud-height retrievals
      Personal Author:
      Rowe, P. M.; Cox, C. J.; Walden, V.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 9(8), 3641-3659.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Polar regions are characterized by their remoteness, making measurements challenging, but an improved knowledge of clouds and radiation is necessary to understand polar climate change. Infrared radiance spectrometers can operate continuously from the...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 796.95 KB]
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