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NOAA's Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS)

United States. Office of Coast Survey; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)

2020 | Operational STOFS-3D-Global Configuration

This dataset collection describes the Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS, formerly ESTOFS), which is a collaboration between the NOAA's Office of Coast Survey (OCS)/Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL), University of Notre Dame, Virginia Institute of Marine Science and NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).STOFS ...

09/28/2026

Title : NOAA's Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS) Corporate Authors(s) : United States. Office of Coast Survey; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.) Published Date : 2020 Series : Operational STOFS-3D-Global Configuration;STOFS 2D-global;STOFS 3D Atlantic;STOFS 3D Pacific; DOI : https://doi.org/10.25923/baw0-2722
United States. Office of Coast Survey; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.) (2020). NOAA's Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS). United States. Office of Coast Survey. https://doi.org/10.25923/baw0-2722

United States. Office of Coast Survey; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.). NOAA's Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS). United States. Office of Coast Survey, 2020. https://doi.org/10.25923/baw0-2722.

United States. Office of Coast Survey; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.) NOAA's Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS). United States. Office of Coast Survey, 2020, NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.25923/baw0-2722.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - A2 - United States. Office of Coast Survey; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.) AB - This dataset collection describes the Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS, formerly ESTOFS), which is a collaboration between the NOAA's Office of Coast Survey (OCS)/Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL), University of Notre Dame, Virginia Institute of Marine Science and NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). AB - STOFS provides operational nowcast and forecast guidance for water level, water currents, water temperature, and salinity. This guidance supports a wide range of user communities, including disaster mitigation, marine navigation, emergency response, search and rescue, ecosystem health, and pollution transport. The NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) and U.S. Coast Guard Search and Rescue continuously rely on STOFS nowcast/forecast guidance for their operational requirements (operational forecasts, operational search and rescue, etc.). Furthermore, STOFS model output is being provided in S-100 Universal Hydrographic Model formats (e.g. S-104 water levels and S-111 surface currents) for NOAA's Precision Marine Navigation program. AB - The STOFS system is composed of three main products: STOFS-2D-Global, STOFS-3D-Atlantic, and STOFS-3D-Pacific. AB - STOFS-2D-Global provides users with nowcasts (analyses of near present conditions) and forecast guidance of water level conditions for the entire globe. STOFS-2D-Global has been developed to serve the marine navigation, weather forecasting, and disaster mitigation user communities. AB - STOFS-3D-Atlantic and STOFS-3D-Pacific run daily (at 12 UTC) to provide users with 24-hour nowcasts (analyses of near present conditions) and up to 96-hour (Atlantic) and 48-hour (Pacific) forecast guidance of water level conditions, and 2- and 3-dimensional fields of water temperature, salinity, and currents. The water level outputs represent the combined tidal and subtidal water surface elevations and are referenced to xGEOID20B (Atlantic) and Local Mean Sea Level (LMSL) (Pacific). AB - The Coast Survey Development Laboratory (CSDL) in NOAA/National Ocean Service (NOS)/Office of Coast Survey is upgrading the Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS) to Version 3.1. A Service Change Notice (SCN) has been issued and can be found at The Coast Survey Development Laboratory (CSDL) in NOAA/National Ocean Service (NOS)/Office of Coast Survey is upgrading the Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS) to Version 3.1. A Service Change Notice (SCN) has been issued and can be found at https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/SCN26-51_STOFS.v3.1_Updated.aaa.pdf AN - noaa:76532 DO - https://doi.org/10.25923/baw0-2722 KW - Sea Level KW - Storm Surge KW - Forecasting KW - STOFS KW - Ocean PB - United States. Office of Coast Survey PY - 2020 T3 - Operational STOFS-3D-Global Configuration TI - NOAA's Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS) UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76532 ER -
Seasonality and trends in coastal water temperature from NOAA water level monitoring stations along US coasts

Callahan, John A.

;

Armos, Bailey

2026 | Frontiers in Marine Science, 13 | PDF

Coastal regions are complex environments. They lie at the confluence of physical oceanic, atmospheric, and land-based processes, and continue to undergo significant change due to both natural and human-driven factors. Impacts from the natural hazards affecting these regions are highly localized, such as infrastructure damage due to coastal flooding ...

09/25/2026

Supporting Files

Title : Seasonality and trends in coastal water temperature from NOAA water level monitoring stations along US coasts Personal Author(s) : Callahan, John A.;Armos, Bailey;Jima, Tigist;Zervas, Christopher; Published Date : 2026 Source : Frontiers in Marine Science, 13 DOI : https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1863230 Journal Title : Frontiers in Marine Science
Callahan, J. A., Armos, B., Jima, T., & Zervas, C. (2026). Seasonality and trends in coastal water temperature from NOAA water level monitoring stations along US coasts. Frontiers in Marine Science, 13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1863230

Callahan, John A., Bailey Armos, Tigist Jima, and Christopher Zervas. "Seasonality and trends in coastal water temperature from NOAA water level monitoring stations along US coasts." Frontiers in Marine Science 13 (2026). https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1863230.

Callahan, John A., et al. "Seasonality and trends in coastal water temperature from NOAA water level monitoring stations along US coasts." Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 13, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1863230.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Callahan, John A. AU - Armos, Bailey AU - Jima, Tigist AU - Zervas, Christopher AB - Coastal regions are complex environments. They lie at the confluence of physical oceanic, atmospheric, and land-based processes, and continue to undergo significant change due to both natural and human-driven factors. Impacts from the natural hazards affecting these regions are highly localized, such as infrastructure damage due to coastal flooding or ecosystem stress due to marine heatwaves. This paper introduces a new quality-controlled dataset of coastal water temperature collected at NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) water level monitoring stations. Water temperature (WT) data records were analyzed at 90 stations extending from the mid-1990s to 2023 and representing all major US coastal regions. A series of basic statistical metrics were computed and compared across regions, including daily and monthly WT climatologies, empirical extreme quantiles, and linear trend rates. WT seasonal cycles tracked well with solar heating and peak WTs consistently tracked behind peak air temperature by a few days to a few weeks. US East Coast and Great Lakes regions have much stronger WT seasonal cycles and larger ranges (up to 25°C) than West Coast and Island regions (as low as 3°C). The great majority of stations experienced positive trends over this time period, with statistically significant linear trend rates at 46 of 90 stations, averaging nearly 0.5 °C/decade. Largest trends were found along Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Gulf regions while smallest trends found in the Northwest. Lastly, two case studies were examined, a comparison to NOAA's Optimum Interpolation SST global dataset and frequency of marine heatwaves in South Florida, both of which highlight the need for local in situ monitoring. This new WT dataset from CO-OPS provides consistent, reliable data that can support continuous local environmental monitoring and helps inform future planning and decision-making in this dynamic environment. AN - noaa:76531 DO - https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1863230 J2 - Frontiers in Marine Science KW - water temperature KW - coastal hazards KW - tide gauges KW - seasonal cycle KW - historical trends KW - extreme temperatures KW - station monitoring KW - marine heatwaves KW - CO-OPS PB - Frontiers Media SA PY - 2026 T2 - Frontiers in Marine Science T2 - Frontiers in Marine Science, 13 TI - Seasonality and trends in coastal water temperature from NOAA water level monitoring stations along US coasts VL - 13 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76531 ER -
The Equilibrium Response of Atmospheric Machine‐Learning Models to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Warming

Zhang, Bosong

;

Merlis, Timothy M.

2026 | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(9) | PDF

Machine learning (ML) models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi‐year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed. However, the ability of these ML models to generalize beyond the training distribution remains an open question. In this study, we evaluate the climate response of several state‐of‐the‐ ...

09/25/2026

Title : The Equilibrium Response of Atmospheric Machine‐Learning Models to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Warming Personal Author(s) : Zhang, Bosong;Merlis, Timothy M.; Published Date : 2026 Source : Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(9) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1029/2026MS005815 Journal Title : Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Zhang, B., & Merlis, T. M. (2026). The Equilibrium Response of Atmospheric Machine‐Learning Models to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Warming. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2026MS005815

Zhang, Bosong and Timothy M. Merlis. "The Equilibrium Response of Atmospheric Machine‐Learning Models to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Warming." Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 18, no. 9 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2026MS005815.

Zhang, Bosong, and Timothy M. Merlis "The Equilibrium Response of Atmospheric Machine‐Learning Models to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Warming." Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol. 18, no. 9, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1029/2026MS005815.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Zhang, Bosong AU - Merlis, Timothy M. AB - Machine learning (ML) models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi‐year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed. However, the ability of these ML models to generalize beyond the training distribution remains an open question. In this study, we evaluate the climate response of several state‐of‐the‐art ML models (ACE2‐ERA5, NeuralGCM, and cBottle) to a uniform sea surface temperature warming, a widely used benchmark for evaluating climate change. We assess each ML model's performance relative to a physics‐based general circulation model (NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM4) across key diagnostics, including surface air temperature, precipitation, temperature, and wind profiles, and top‐of‐atmosphere radiation. While the ML models reproduce key aspects of the physical model response, particularly the response of precipitation, some exhibit notable departures from robust physical responses, including radiative responses and land region warming. Our results highlight the promise and current limitations of ML models for climate change applications and suggest that further improvements are needed for robust out‐of‐sample generalization. AN - noaa:76529 DO - https://doi.org/10.1029/2026MS005815 IS - 9 J2 - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems PB - American Geophysical Union (AGU) PY - 2026 T2 - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems T2 - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18(9) TI - The Equilibrium Response of Atmospheric Machine‐Learning Models to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Warming VL - 18 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76529 ER -
Development of a high-resolution coupled SHiELD-MOM6-LM4 model - Part 2: Model overview, coupling technique, and evaluation of hydrological extremes during Hurricane Helene

Mouallem, Joseph

;

Malyshev, Sergey

2026 | Geoscientific Model Development, 19(17), 8427-8446 | PDF

This work describes the implementation strategy and technical challenges involved in integrating the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s Land Model (LM4) with dynamic subgrid tiling capabilities within the atmospheric model, System for High-resolution modeling for Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD), capable of kilometer-scale global simulat ...

09/25/2026

Supporting Files

Title : Development of a high-resolution coupled SHiELD-MOM6-LM4 model - Part 2: Model overview, coupling technique, and evaluation of hydrological extremes during Hurricane Helene Personal Author(s) : Mouallem, Joseph;Malyshev, Sergey;Tan, Zhihong;Shevliakova, Elena;Gao, Kun;Harris, Lucas;Benson, Rusty;Cooke, William;Zadeh, Niki;Chilutti, Lauren; Published Date : 2026 Source : Geoscientific Model Development, 19(17), 8427-8446 DOI : https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8427-2026 Journal Title : Geoscientific Model Development
Mouallem, J., Malyshev, S., Tan, Z., Shevliakova, E., Gao, K., Harris, L., Benson, R., Cooke, W., Zadeh, N., & Chilutti, L. (2026). Development of a high-resolution coupled SHiELD-MOM6-LM4 model - Part 2: Model overview, coupling technique, and evaluation of hydrological extremes during Hurricane Helene. Geoscientific Model Development, 19(17). https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8427-2026

Mouallem, Joseph, Sergey Malyshev, Zhihong Tan, Elena Shevliakova, Kun Gao, Lucas Harris, Rusty Benson, William Cooke, Niki Zadeh, and Lauren Chilutti. "Development of a high-resolution coupled SHiELD-MOM6-LM4 model - Part 2: Model overview, coupling technique, and evaluation of hydrological extremes during Hurricane Helene." Geoscientific Model Development 19, no. 17 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8427-2026.

Mouallem, Joseph, et al. "Development of a high-resolution coupled SHiELD-MOM6-LM4 model - Part 2: Model overview, coupling technique, and evaluation of hydrological extremes during Hurricane Helene." Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 19, no. 17, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8427-2026.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Mouallem, Joseph AU - Malyshev, Sergey AU - Tan, Zhihong AU - Shevliakova, Elena AU - Gao, Kun AU - Harris, Lucas AU - Benson, Rusty AU - Cooke, William AU - Zadeh, Niki AU - Chilutti, Lauren AB - This work describes the implementation strategy and technical challenges involved in integrating the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s Land Model (LM4) with dynamic subgrid tiling capabilities within the atmospheric model, System for High-resolution modeling for Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD), capable of kilometer-scale global simulations. A key challenge addressed in this effort is coupling LM4, which was designed for implicit surface flux coupling, with SHiELD's explicit physics solver. We achieve this through a refactoring of the atmospheric physics suite and code drivers, enabling implicit land-atmosphere coupling of heat and moisture within the well-established FMS coupler infrastructure. The resulting flexible architecture supports multiple model configurations from a single executable without recompilation. This extends SHiELD from an uncoupled atmospheric model, in which land processes are treated as a part of the atmospheric physics package, to a fully coupled high-resolution atmosphere-ocean-land-ice model. We demonstrate the new system through a high-resolution global simulation of Hurricane Helene's landfall where the land component realistically captures the rapid soil saturation, localized runoff generation and multi-day river flooding in Western North Carolina. These results demonstrate the technical coupling strategy, unlock new forecast capabilities, and highlight the importance of interactive land-atmosphere coupling for simulating extreme weather and hydrological events. AN - noaa:76528 DO - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8427-2026 IS - 17 J2 - Geoscientific Model Development KW - Coupled models developement KW - OAR/GFDL KW - Princeton/CIMES PB - Copernicus GmbH PY - 2026 T2 - Geoscientific Model Development T2 - Geoscientific Model Development, 19(17), 8427-8446 TI - Development of a high-resolution coupled SHiELD-MOM6-LM4 model - Part 2: Model overview, coupling technique, and evaluation of hydrological extremes during Hurricane Helene VL - 19 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76528 ER -
Contrasting Local and Non-Local PBL Closures in the Turbulence Grey Zone: A Case Study of Convection-Permitting Dryline Simulations

Lu, Duanjun ;

White, Loren D.

2026 | Atmosphere, 17(9), 825 | PDF

Accurately simulating convective initiation (CI) in capped High Plains dryline environments remains a significant challenge for convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. As a follow-up work to Lu and White, this study utilizes the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) at a 3 km grid resolution to evaluate the sensitivity of dryline mo ...

09/25/2026

Title : Contrasting Local and Non-Local PBL Closures in the Turbulence Grey Zone: A Case Study of Convection-Permitting Dryline Simulations Personal Author(s) : Lu, Duanjun;White, Loren D.; Published Date : 2026 Source : Atmosphere, 17(9), 825 DOI : https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17090825 Journal Title : Atmosphere
Lu, D., & White, L. D. (2026). Contrasting Local and Non-Local PBL Closures in the Turbulence Grey Zone: A Case Study of Convection-Permitting Dryline Simulations. Atmosphere, 17(9). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17090825

Lu, Duanjun and Loren D. White. "Contrasting Local and Non-Local PBL Closures in the Turbulence Grey Zone: A Case Study of Convection-Permitting Dryline Simulations." Atmosphere 17, no. 9 (2026). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17090825.

Lu, Duanjun, and Loren D. White "Contrasting Local and Non-Local PBL Closures in the Turbulence Grey Zone: A Case Study of Convection-Permitting Dryline Simulations." Atmosphere, vol. 17, no. 9, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17090825.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Lu, Duanjun AU - White, Loren D. AB - Accurately simulating convective initiation (CI) in capped High Plains dryline environments remains a significant challenge for convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. As a follow-up work to Lu and White, this study utilizes the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) at a 3 km grid resolution to evaluate the sensitivity of dryline morphology and CI to two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes: the non-local Yonsei University (YSU) and the local Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) frameworks. Radar observations and simulated maximum reflectivity show that while the YSU scheme successfully replicates the timing and spatial development of convective cores triggered along the elevated terrain slope at 21:30 UTC, the MYNN scheme completely suppresses deep convection throughout the study period. Vertical thermodynamic profiles indicate that YSU establishes a deeply mixed boundary layer that weakens the regional capping inversion, enabling surface parcels to break the stable lid and reach their level of free convection (LFC). Conversely, the MYNN scheme confines moisture to a thin layer near the surface beneath an unyielding temperature inversion, preventing parcels from achieving free buoyancy. For the 3 km "grey zone" of turbulence resolution, both PBL schemes successfully resolve horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) near the primary dryline boundary. YSU's non-local mixing permits these HCR perturbations to couple vertically into deep, cap-breaching updraft plumes, while MYNN's local turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure traps them as shallow horizontal waves. It was shown that the MYNN failure is driven by an intrusive synoptic wind bias, generating anomaly wind velocities of 24-28 m/s throughout the column. These winds act as a mechanical sweeper across the terrain slope which shears, flattens, and dilutes the moisture pool below 2000 m Mean Sea Level (MSL) and physically reduces fuel from the western initiation zone. In contrast, the YSU scheme maintains a well-regulated, moderate wind profile (8-12 m/s aloft), preserving a state of mesoscale equilibrium that allows moisture to ascend the terrain slope and continuously feed developing convective cells. Our findings demonstrate that the choice of PBL parameterization plays significant role in not only local vertical mixing but also the structural translation of macroscale synoptic forcing versus localized thermodynamic regulation in complex terrain. AN - noaa:76527 DO - https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17090825 IS - 9 J2 - Atmosphere PB - MDPI AG PY - 2026 T2 - Atmosphere T2 - Atmosphere, 17(9), 825 TI - Contrasting Local and Non-Local PBL Closures in the Turbulence Grey Zone: A Case Study of Convection-Permitting Dryline Simulations VL - 17 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76527 ER -
Numerical Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle of the West Texas Dryline: Impacts of Topography and Surface Moisture

Lu, Duanjun ;

White, Loren D.

2026 | Atmosphere, 17(6), 580 | PDF

The dryline is a sharp boundary between moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and dry air from the desert Southwest. In West Texas, this boundary often surges east during the day and retreats west at night. Understanding exactly why it moves back and forth is critical for predicting where severe thunderstorms will form. Yet the physical drivers of dryl ...

09/25/2026

Title : Numerical Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle of the West Texas Dryline: Impacts of Topography and Surface Moisture Personal Author(s) : Lu, Duanjun;White, Loren D.; Published Date : 2026 Source : Atmosphere, 17(6), 580 DOI : https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17060580 Journal Title : Atmosphere
Lu, D., & White, L. D. (2026). Numerical Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle of the West Texas Dryline: Impacts of Topography and Surface Moisture. Atmosphere, 17(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17060580

Lu, Duanjun and Loren D. White. "Numerical Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle of the West Texas Dryline: Impacts of Topography and Surface Moisture." Atmosphere 17, no. 6 (2026). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17060580.

Lu, Duanjun, and Loren D. White "Numerical Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle of the West Texas Dryline: Impacts of Topography and Surface Moisture." Atmosphere, vol. 17, no. 6, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17060580.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Lu, Duanjun AU - White, Loren D. AB - The dryline is a sharp boundary between moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and dry air from the desert Southwest. In West Texas, this boundary often surges east during the day and retreats west at night. Understanding exactly why it moves back and forth is critical for predicting where severe thunderstorms will form. Yet the physical drivers of dryline life cycle remain poorly understood and frequently under-predicted. This study utilizes a variable-resolution Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) configuration (3-60 km) with the YSU non-local planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme to investigate a representative dryline event from April 2017. The control simulation was validated against NWS Surface Analysis, demonstrating a high spatial correlation in both synoptic-scale pressure distributions and mesoscale moisture gradients, successfully resolving a nocturnal retrogression of approximately 170 km, with the dryline retreating from its peak afternoon surge at 100.7° W to a recovery point of 102.5° W between 0000 UTC and 0600 UTC 10 April. This recovery occurred at an average speed of 28.3 km/h, consistently constrained beneath a resilient capping inversion. To decouple the environmental drivers of this motion, two targeted sensitivity experiments were conducted: (1) Mechanical Forcing: A 50% reduction in regional topography confirms that the West Texas sloping ramp acts as a "topographic pump." Without this gradient, the hydrostatic pressure falls were insufficient to drive the nocturnal retreat, causing the boundary to stall eastward. (2) Thermodynamic Regulation: A 50% reduction in soil moisture revealed an "energy swap," the near-total partitioning of net radiation into sensible heat drove the planetary boundary layer to a higher peak value-a 600 m increase over the control simulation. These results provide a comprehensive physical framework for dryline mobility, demonstrating that while terrain plays an important role in the extent of the diurnal oscillation, soil moisture governs the vertical structure and moisture gradient intensity. Our findings suggest that high-resolution vertical layering and accurate land-surface initialization are prerequisites for capturing the inversion layer dynamics essential for dryline forecasting. However, these findings are based on a single event and require validation across a broader range of dryline cases. AN - noaa:76526 DO - https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17060580 IS - 6 J2 - Atmosphere PB - MDPI AG PY - 2026 T2 - Atmosphere T2 - Atmosphere, 17(6), 580 TI - Numerical Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle of the West Texas Dryline: Impacts of Topography and Surface Moisture VL - 17 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76526 ER -
Length-of-day changes driven by artificial water impoundment post-1835

Valencic, N ;

Mihas, A

2026 | Geophysical Journal International, 247(2) | PDF

We compute changes in the Earth's rotation period caused by water impoundment in artificial reservoirs from 1835 to 2011. The change is the sum of two effects that nearly cancel: Increased water in reservoirs, which increases the rotation period and ocean mass loss, which decreases it. Our computation, which includes the spatially varying effects o ...

09/25/2026

Title : Length-of-day changes driven by artificial water impoundment post-1835 Personal Author(s) : Valencic, N;Mihas, A;Lyons, M J;Sheehan, B A;Sutherland, K R;Vargas, J J;Hawley, W B;Pan, L;Mitrovica, J X; Published Date : 2026 Source : Geophysical Journal International, 247(2) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggag336 Journal Title : Geophysical Journal International
Valencic, N., Mihas, A., Lyons, M. J., Sheehan, B. A., Sutherland, K. R., Vargas, J. J., Hawley, W. B., Pan, L., & Mitrovica, J. X. (2026). Length-of-day changes driven by artificial water impoundment post-1835. Geophysical Journal International, 247(2). https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggag336

Valencic, N, A Mihas, M J Lyons, B A Sheehan, K R Sutherland, J J Vargas, W B Hawley, L Pan, and J X Mitrovica. "Length-of-day changes driven by artificial water impoundment post-1835." Geophysical Journal International 247, no. 2 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggag336.

Valencic, N, et al. "Length-of-day changes driven by artificial water impoundment post-1835." Geophysical Journal International, vol. 247, no. 2, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggag336.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Valencic, N AU - Mihas, A AU - Lyons, M J AU - Sheehan, B A AU - Sutherland, K R AU - Vargas, J J AU - Hawley, W B AU - Pan, L AU - Mitrovica, J X AB - We compute changes in the Earth's rotation period caused by water impoundment in artificial reservoirs from 1835 to 2011. The change is the sum of two effects that nearly cancel: Increased water in reservoirs, which increases the rotation period and ocean mass loss, which decreases it. Our computation, which includes the spatially varying effects on sea level of Earth loading and mass change, shows a decrease in the rotation period of ∼0.01 ms d−1 over the 176-yr timespan. Our computed time-series of the change in the rotation period is comparable to a previously published estimate, though during the time of greatest change (1935-1980) our computed rate is ∼50 per cent greater than the earlier estimate. The total volume of our database of reservoirs is 72 per cent of an independent global estimate; we demonstrate that the missing 28 per cent of the total global storage impacts our estimate of angular velocity change by less than ∼10 per cent. AN - noaa:76525 DO - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggag336 IS - 2 J2 - Geophysical Journal International PB - Oxford University Press (OUP) PY - 2026 T2 - Geophysical Journal International T2 - Geophysical Journal International, 247(2) TI - Length-of-day changes driven by artificial water impoundment post-1835 VL - 247 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76525 ER -
Long-Term Assessment of Inter-Sensor Radiometric Biases Among SNPP, NOAA-20, NOAA-21 OMPS Nadir, and CrIS Instruments Using the NOAA ICVS-iSensor-RCBA Portal

Yan, Banghua

;

Liang, Ding

2026 | Remote Sensing, 18(2), 254 | PDF

This study provides a comprehensive, long-term evaluation of inter-sensor radiometric calibration biases for the NOAA OMPS Nadir and CrIS instruments using four complementary validation methodologies implemented within the Inter-Sensor Radiometric Bias Assessment (iSensor-RCBA) portal, a component of the STAR Integrated Calibration/Validation Syste ...

09/25/2026

Title : Long-Term Assessment of Inter-Sensor Radiometric Biases Among SNPP, NOAA-20, NOAA-21 OMPS Nadir, and CrIS Instruments Using the NOAA ICVS-iSensor-RCBA Portal Personal Author(s) : Yan, Banghua;Liang, Ding;Jin, Xin;Sun, Ninghai;Iturbide-Sanchez, Flavio;Wu, Xiangqian;Wang, Likun; Published Date : 2026 Source : Remote Sensing, 18(2), 254 DOI : https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020254 Journal Title : Remote Sensing
Yan, B., Liang, D., Jin, X., Sun, N., Iturbide-Sanchez, F., Wu, X., & Wang, L. (2026). Long-Term Assessment of Inter-Sensor Radiometric Biases Among SNPP, NOAA-20, NOAA-21 OMPS Nadir, and CrIS Instruments Using the NOAA ICVS-iSensor-RCBA Portal. Remote Sensing, 18(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020254

Yan, Banghua, Ding Liang, Xin Jin, Ninghai Sun, Flavio Iturbide-Sanchez, Xiangqian Wu, and Likun Wang. "Long-Term Assessment of Inter-Sensor Radiometric Biases Among SNPP, NOAA-20, NOAA-21 OMPS Nadir, and CrIS Instruments Using the NOAA ICVS-iSensor-RCBA Portal." Remote Sensing 18, no. 2 (2026). https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020254.

Yan, Banghua, et al. "Long-Term Assessment of Inter-Sensor Radiometric Biases Among SNPP, NOAA-20, NOAA-21 OMPS Nadir, and CrIS Instruments Using the NOAA ICVS-iSensor-RCBA Portal." Remote Sensing, vol. 18, no. 2, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020254.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Yan, Banghua AU - Liang, Ding AU - Jin, Xin AU - Sun, Ninghai AU - Iturbide-Sanchez, Flavio AU - Wu, Xiangqian AU - Wang, Likun AB - This study provides a comprehensive, long-term evaluation of inter-sensor radiometric calibration biases for the NOAA OMPS Nadir and CrIS instruments using four complementary validation methodologies implemented within the Inter-Sensor Radiometric Bias Assessment (iSensor-RCBA) portal, a component of the STAR Integrated Calibration/Validation System. Overall, SDR data quality from the three OMPS Nadir instruments and three CrIS instruments aboard SNPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21 remains stable. The iSensor-RCBA portal has also proven to be a powerful diagnostic resource, enabling the detection of both new and previously unrecognized calibration issues and anomalies. Using the 32-day averaged difference method, we were the first to discover and identify the root cause of an inconsistency near 280 nm in inter-sensor radiometric biases between the SNPP and NOAA-20 OMPS NP instruments. The same method also revealed an unusual radiometric feature in NOAA-21 CrIS SDRs over the southern high latitudes during spring and summer. In addition, we derived decade-long degradation rates at 11 Metop-B GOME-2 wavelengths using an independent dataset-Simultaneous Nadir Overpass observations between SNPP OMPS and Metop-B GOME-2. Furthermore, iSensor-RCBA monitoring confirmed two geolocation anomalies in SNPP CrIS through a new approach involving SNO-based inter-sensor biases between GOES-16 ABI and SNPP CrIS. These cases demonstrate that iSensor-RCBA is not only a monitoring visualization tool but also a diagnostic tool that delivers unique, complementary insight into instrument performance, enabling early identification of radiometric and geolocation issues across JPSS and other satellite missions. Importantly, the analysis methods used in this study are broadly applicable to current and future missions, including JPSS-03, JPSS-04, and non-NOAA satellite systems. AN - noaa:76524 DO - https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020254 IS - 2 J2 - Remote Sensing PB - MDPI AG PY - 2026 T2 - Remote Sensing T2 - Remote Sensing, 18(2), 254 TI - Long-Term Assessment of Inter-Sensor Radiometric Biases Among SNPP, NOAA-20, NOAA-21 OMPS Nadir, and CrIS Instruments Using the NOAA ICVS-iSensor-RCBA Portal VL - 18 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76524 ER -
Service equity matrix for inclusive risk communication of extreme weather events

Vahedifard, Farshid

;

Azhar, Mohammed

2026 | npj Natural Hazards, 3(1) | PDF

Warning services for extreme weather events remain unevenly accessible and actionable, particularly for historically underserved and socially vulnerable communities. We introduce the Service Equity Matrix (SEM), a conceptual framework integrating objective risk, perceived risk, and service quality to diagnose community-level communication gaps. The ...

09/25/2026

Title : Service equity matrix for inclusive risk communication of extreme weather events Personal Author(s) : Vahedifard, Farshid;Azhar, Mohammed;Kelly, Julian;Rokooei, Saeed;Khanbilvardi, Reza;Madani, Kaveh; Published Date : 2026 Source : npj Natural Hazards, 3(1) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00222-7 Journal Title : npj Natural Hazards
Vahedifard, F., Azhar, M., Kelly, J., Rokooei, S., Khanbilvardi, R., & Madani, K. (2026). Service equity matrix for inclusive risk communication of extreme weather events. npj Natural Hazards, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00222-7

Vahedifard, Farshid, Mohammed Azhar, Julian Kelly, Saeed Rokooei, Reza Khanbilvardi, and Kaveh Madani. "Service equity matrix for inclusive risk communication of extreme weather events." npj Natural Hazards 3, no. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00222-7.

Vahedifard, Farshid, et al. "Service equity matrix for inclusive risk communication of extreme weather events." npj Natural Hazards, vol. 3, no. 1, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00222-7.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Vahedifard, Farshid AU - Azhar, Mohammed AU - Kelly, Julian AU - Rokooei, Saeed AU - Khanbilvardi, Reza AU - Madani, Kaveh AB - Warning services for extreme weather events remain unevenly accessible and actionable, particularly for historically underserved and socially vulnerable communities. We introduce the Service Equity Matrix (SEM), a conceptual framework integrating objective risk, perceived risk, and service quality to diagnose community-level communication gaps. The SEM enables risk communication tailored to the characteristics, hazards, and needs of each community, supporting targeted interventions, improving accountability, and advancing equitable preparedness for extreme weather events. AN - noaa:76523 DO - https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00222-7 IS - 1 J2 - npj Natural Hazards PB - Springer Science and Business Media LLC PY - 2026 T2 - npj Natural Hazards T2 - npj Natural Hazards, 3(1) TI - Service equity matrix for inclusive risk communication of extreme weather events VL - 3 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76523 ER -
A multi-sectoral high-resolution emission refinement system for CFD-GIS based air quality modeling

Rho, Ju-Hwan ;

Lee, Sang-Hyun

2026 | Urban Climate, 68, 103030 | PDF

Precise urban air quality management requires a high-resolution understanding of complex emission landscapes. This study proposes a multi-sectoral high-resolution emission refinement system for urban-scale modeling and evaluates its impact through comparative numerical experiments. By leveraging building-specific GIS data and road network informati ...

09/25/2026

Title : A multi-sectoral high-resolution emission refinement system for CFD-GIS based air quality modeling Personal Author(s) : Rho, Ju-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Hyun Cheol;Song, Chang-Keun;Kim, Minjoong J.;Kim, Jae-Jin; Published Date : 2026 Source : Urban Climate, 68, 103030 DOI : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103030 Journal Title : Urban Climate
Rho, J. H., Lee, S. H., Kim, H. C., Song, C. K., Kim, M. J., & Kim, J. J. (2026). A multi-sectoral high-resolution emission refinement system for CFD-GIS based air quality modeling. Urban Climate, 68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103030

Rho, Ju-Hwan, Sang-Hyun Lee, Hyun Cheol Kim, Chang-Keun Song, Minjoong J. Kim, and Jae-Jin Kim. "A multi-sectoral high-resolution emission refinement system for CFD-GIS based air quality modeling." Urban Climate 68 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103030.

Rho, Ju-Hwan, et al. "A multi-sectoral high-resolution emission refinement system for CFD-GIS based air quality modeling." Urban Climate, vol. 68, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103030.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Rho, Ju-Hwan AU - Lee, Sang-Hyun AU - Kim, Hyun Cheol AU - Song, Chang-Keun AU - Kim, Minjoong J. AU - Kim, Jae-Jin AB - Precise urban air quality management requires a high-resolution understanding of complex emission landscapes. This study proposes a multi-sectoral high-resolution emission refinement system for urban-scale modeling and evaluates its impact through comparative numerical experiments. By leveraging building-specific GIS data and road network information, the Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS), South Korea's national inventory, was refined to a 20-m resolution and chemically speciated for the Harvard chemistry mechanism to be used in CFD-Chem modeling. The high-resolution emission experiment (HE) successfully resolved localized concentration hotspots intrinsically linked to urban morphology, which were obscured in the 1-km grid-based conventional emission experiment (CE). Specifically, the HE demonstrated superior performance in reproducing the spatial heterogeneity of NO 2 concentration, showing strong agreement with road-adjacent monitoring stations. The difference ratio analysis between the two experiments revealed that NO 2 concentrations in the HE differed by up to 245.6% from the CE in dense urban corridors, effectively mitigating smoothing errors inherent in coarse-grid emissions. Furthermore, the HE proved pivotal in capturing non-linear photochemical reactions; refined roadside NO emissions in the HE actively triggered local ozone titration, resulting in a reduction in ozone concentrations of up to 50.3% along major road networks compared to the CE. While simulation fidelity for CO and PM 2.5 depended on regional background concentrations, the HE provided a more realistic representation of localized chemical destruction and production cycles. This study establishes a robust scientific foundation for precision air quality management, offering a key instrument for designating intensive management zones and establishing effective pedestrian exposure mitigation measures. AN - noaa:76522 DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103030 J2 - Urban Climate PB - Elsevier BV PY - 2026 T2 - Urban Climate T2 - Urban Climate, 68, 103030 TI - A multi-sectoral high-resolution emission refinement system for CFD-GIS based air quality modeling VL - 68 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76522 ER -
Genomic-to-space measurements reveal large-scale ocean nutrient stress

Martiny, Adam C.

;

Ustick, Lucas J.

2026 | Science Advances, 12(23) | PDF

Phytoplankton growth and ocean primary production depend on a nutrient supply that fluctuates across seasonal to millennial timescales. Because surface nutrients and phytoplankton biomass recycle rapidly, they obscure the large-scale pattern of nutrient stress. Here, we integrate a satellite-derived index of phytoplankton physiology with hydrograph ...

09/25/2026

Title : Genomic-to-space measurements reveal large-scale ocean nutrient stress Personal Author(s) : Martiny, Adam C.;Ustick, Lucas J.;Westberry, Toby K.;Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Published Date : 2026 Source : Science Advances, 12(23) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed8089 Journal Title : Science Advances
Martiny, A. C., Ustick, L. J., Westberry, T. K., & Behrenfeld, M. J. (2026). Genomic-to-space measurements reveal large-scale ocean nutrient stress. Science Advances, 12(23). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed8089

Martiny, Adam C., Lucas J. Ustick, Toby K. Westberry, and Michael J. Behrenfeld. "Genomic-to-space measurements reveal large-scale ocean nutrient stress." Science Advances 12, no. 23 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed8089.

Martiny, Adam C., et al. "Genomic-to-space measurements reveal large-scale ocean nutrient stress." Science Advances, vol. 12, no. 23, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed8089.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Martiny, Adam C. AU - Ustick, Lucas J. AU - Westberry, Toby K. AU - Behrenfeld, Michael J. AB - Phytoplankton growth and ocean primary production depend on a nutrient supply that fluctuates across seasonal to millennial timescales. Because surface nutrients and phytoplankton biomass recycle rapidly, they obscure the large-scale pattern of nutrient stress. Here, we integrate a satellite-derived index of phytoplankton physiology with hydrographic observations, omics biomarkers, and nutrient-addition experiments to understand the drivers of ocean nutrient stress. A clear biogeography emerges. Nutrient stress tracks nutricline depth and is stronger in nitrogen- than phosphate-limited waters, peaking where cells exploit rarer alternative nutrients. Seasonal variability dominates, but there are also clear signatures of major climate modes. Over the past two decades, surface warming has broadly intensified nutrient stress. A key exception is in southern hemisphere oligotrophic regions, where enhanced nitrogen fixation appears to offset stratification effects. This synthesis of hydrography, genomics, and satellite physiology exposes contemporary, climate-linked shifts in the large-scale distribution of phytoplankton nutrient stress. AN - noaa:76521 DO - https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed8089 IS - 23 J2 - Science Advances PB - American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) PY - 2026 T2 - Science Advances T2 - Science Advances, 12(23) TI - Genomic-to-space measurements reveal large-scale ocean nutrient stress VL - 12 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76521 ER -
Estimating Uncertainty of PMW‐Based Convective Fraction Product

Ji, Lei

;

Petković, Veljko

2026 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131(14) | PDF

Convective precipitation plays a crucial role in the Earth's hydrological cycle, vertical thermodynamic transport, and natural weather hazards. While satellite passive microwave (PMW) observations offer broad spatial coverage essential for global precipitation monitoring, uncertainties in PMW‐derived precipitation class (i.e., regime) remain poorly ...

09/25/2026

Title : Estimating Uncertainty of PMW‐Based Convective Fraction Product Personal Author(s) : Ji, Lei;Petković, Veljko;Orescanin, Marko; Published Date : 2026 Source : Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131(14) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046377 Journal Title : Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Ji, L., Petković, V., & Orescanin, M. (2026). Estimating Uncertainty of PMW‐Based Convective Fraction Product. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131(14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046377

Ji, Lei, Veljko Petković, and Marko Orescanin. "Estimating Uncertainty of PMW‐Based Convective Fraction Product." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 131, no. 14 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046377.

Ji, Lei, et al. "Estimating Uncertainty of PMW‐Based Convective Fraction Product." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 131, no. 14, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046377.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Ji, Lei AU - Petković, Veljko AU - Orescanin, Marko AB - Convective precipitation plays a crucial role in the Earth's hydrological cycle, vertical thermodynamic transport, and natural weather hazards. While satellite passive microwave (PMW) observations offer broad spatial coverage essential for global precipitation monitoring, uncertainties in PMW‐derived precipitation class (i.e., regime) remain poorly quantified across varying environmental conditions. This study systematically characterizes Convective Volume Fraction (CVF) uncertainty using 8 years (2015-2023) of collocated observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Core Observatory Microwave Imager (GMI) and Ku‐band Precipitation Radar (KuPR), following their widely used retrieval framework. Results reveal distinct CVF bias patterns between ocean and land surfaces: GMI generally underestimates CVF over oceans except under high moisture conditions (TCWV >60 mm) or elevated surface temperatures (T2m > 304 K), while systematically overestimating over land except in cool, dry environments. Convective volume fraction uncertainties are found to be the highest in tropical regions dominated by deep convection and within an oceanic "transition zone" (T2m: 290-300 K; TCWV: 10-60 mm) characterized by mixed precipitation regimes. Uncertainty patterns correlate strongly with ice‐phase hydrometeor presence, evidenced by brightness temperature depressions at 89 and 166 GHz. Temporal stability analysis across two independent 4‐year periods confirms the robustness of the derived uncertainties. These environment‐dependent uncertainty estimates offer upper bounds directly applicable to operational PMW algorithm refinement and uncertainty propagation in precipitation‐dependent applications. AN - noaa:76520 DO - https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046377 IS - 14 J2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres PB - American Geophysical Union (AGU) PY - 2026 T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131(14) TI - Estimating Uncertainty of PMW‐Based Convective Fraction Product VL - 131 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76520 ER -
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling During Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States

Barragan, Katherine

;

Stan, Cristiana

2026 | Geophysical Research Letters, 53(16) | PDF

Cold air outbreaks (CAOs) are extreme weather events characterized by the equatorward displacement of polar air. This study investigates CAOs occurring along the East Coast of the US and establishes that approximately 16% are driven by stratosphere‐troposphere coupling through wave dynamics. Using ERA5 data, we show that daily surface air temperatu ...

09/25/2026

Title : Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling During Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States Personal Author(s) : Barragan, Katherine;Stan, Cristiana; Published Date : 2026 Source : Geophysical Research Letters, 53(16) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL125002 Journal Title : Geophysical Research Letters
Barragan, K., & Stan, C. (2026). Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling During Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 53(16). https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL125002

Barragan, Katherine and Cristiana Stan. "Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling During Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States." Geophysical Research Letters 53, no. 16 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL125002.

Barragan, Katherine, and Cristiana Stan "Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling During Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States." Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 53, no. 16, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL125002.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Barragan, Katherine AU - Stan, Cristiana AB - Cold air outbreaks (CAOs) are extreme weather events characterized by the equatorward displacement of polar air. This study investigates CAOs occurring along the East Coast of the US and establishes that approximately 16% are driven by stratosphere‐troposphere coupling through wave dynamics. Using ERA5 data, we show that daily surface air temperature anomalies are significantly associated with the EOF2 of stratospheric variability at 10 hPa as determined by linear regression. Wave activity flux analysis indicates that approximately 14 days prior to the CAO onset, distortion of the polar vortex generates downward propagating planetary waves. As the waves reach the mid‐troposphere (500 hPa), they enhance the horizontal convergence of wave activity which interacts with the polar jet stream, extending it fartherer south and thus triggering a CAO at the surface. The 14‐day between the stratospheric triggering and the onset has potential to increase the sub‐seasonal to seasonal predictability of these events. AN - noaa:76518 DO - https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL125002 IS - 16 J2 - Geophysical Research Letters PB - American Geophysical Union (AGU) PY - 2026 T2 - Geophysical Research Letters T2 - Geophysical Research Letters, 53(16) TI - Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling During Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States VL - 53 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76518 ER -
The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information

Maraun, Douglas

;

Bojovic, Dragana

2026 | Earth's Future, 14(1) | PDF

Facing increasing risks from climate change, governments at all levels have started to mainstream the use of climate information. It has been widely acknowledged that the inclusion of stakeholder knowledge and needs, for example, in a co‐design and co‐production process, is important for producing user‐relevant information. Here we start from a hyp ...

09/25/2026

Title : The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information Personal Author(s) : Maraun, Douglas;Bojovic, Dragana;Parker, Wendy;Shepherd, Theodore G.;Sobolowski, Stefan;Caminade, Cyril;Dosio, Alessandro;Gutowski, William J.;Sörensson, Anna;Diaz, Leandro B.;Diouf, Ibrahima;Doblas‐Reyes, Francisco J.;Hernández, Valeria;Jack, Christopher;Pereira, Laura;Rivera, Juan A.;Robledo, Federico;Somot, Samuel; Published Date : 2026 Source : Earth's Future, 14(1) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005618 Journal Title : Earth's Future
Maraun, D., Bojovic, D., Parker, W., Shepherd, T. G., Sobolowski, S., Caminade, C., Dosio, A., Gutowski, W. J., Sörensson, A., Diaz, L. B., Diouf, I., Doblas‐Reyes, F. J., Hernández, V., Jack, C., Pereira, L., Rivera, J. A., Robledo, F., & Somot, S. (2026). The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information. Earth's Future, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005618

Maraun, Douglas, Dragana Bojovic, Wendy Parker, Theodore G. Shepherd, Stefan Sobolowski, Cyril Caminade, and Alessandro Dosio, et al.. "The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information." Earth's Future 14, no. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005618.

Maraun, Douglas, et al. "The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information." Earth's Future, vol. 14, no. 1, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005618.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Maraun, Douglas AU - Bojovic, Dragana AU - Parker, Wendy AU - Shepherd, Theodore G. AU - Sobolowski, Stefan AU - Caminade, Cyril AU - Dosio, Alessandro AU - Gutowski, William J. AU - Sörensson, Anna AU - Diaz, Leandro B. AU - Diouf, Ibrahima AU - Doblas‐Reyes, Francisco J. AU - Hernández, Valeria AU - Jack, Christopher AU - Pereira, Laura AU - Rivera, Juan A. AU - Robledo, Federico AU - Somot, Samuel AB - Facing increasing risks from climate change, governments at all levels have started to mainstream the use of climate information. It has been widely acknowledged that the inclusion of stakeholder knowledge and needs, for example, in a co‐design and co‐production process, is important for producing user‐relevant information. Here we start from a hypothetical example and two real‐world case studies from South America and West Africa to discuss the role of user values, power relationships and language in the construction of climate information. While these aspects have been discussed individually in several papers, we focus on the mutual influences of these aspects in the information construction and argue that, therefore, they cannot be considered separately. We identify five dimensions-the level of risk, the complexity of the scientific problem, user values, power relationships and language-to characterize the complexity of a given user context. Analyzing these dimensions can guide the choice and design of user engagement in a given situation. In particular, even basic research may benefit from such an engagement. Regularly accounting for these aspects in research projects may require substantial changes in the way research funding is organized and how the work of researchers is rewarded. AN - noaa:76517 DO - https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005618 IS - 1 J2 - Earth's Future PB - American Geophysical Union (AGU) PY - 2026 T2 - Earth's Future T2 - Earth's Future, 14(1) TI - The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information VL - 14 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76517 ER -
Wildfire Smoke Along Colorado's Front Range in 2020: An Evaluation of PM 2.5 Monitor Spacing and Smoke Forecasts

Mcguire, Brandon A.

;

Pierce, Jeffrey R.

2026 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131(18) | PDF

The 2020 wildfires caused widespread elevated fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) concentrations across the western U.S. The Colorado Front Range experienced multiple smoke episodes from nearby fires and fires hundreds of kilometers away. Multiple days (88 total) with elevated PM 2.5 along the Front Range occurred in 2020 between July and October. Smo ...

09/25/2026

Title : Wildfire Smoke Along Colorado's Front Range in 2020: An Evaluation of PM 2.5 Monitor Spacing and Smoke Forecasts Personal Author(s) : Mcguire, Brandon A.;Pierce, Jeffrey R.;Ford, Bonne;Magzamen, Sheryl;Ahmadov, Ravan;James, Eric;Anderson, Ashley;Abrams, Katie;Fischer, Emily V.; Published Date : 2026 Source : Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131(18) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046306 Journal Title : Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Mcguire, B. A., Pierce, J. R., Ford, B., Magzamen, S., Ahmadov, R., James, E., Anderson, A., Abrams, K., & Fischer, E. V. (2026). Wildfire Smoke Along Colorado's Front Range in 2020: An Evaluation of PM 2.5 Monitor Spacing and Smoke Forecasts. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131(18). https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046306

Mcguire, Brandon A., Jeffrey R. Pierce, Bonne Ford, Sheryl Magzamen, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Ashley Anderson, Katie Abrams, and Emily V. Fischer. "Wildfire Smoke Along Colorado's Front Range in 2020: An Evaluation of PM 2.5 Monitor Spacing and Smoke Forecasts." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 131, no. 18 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046306.

Mcguire, Brandon A., et al. "Wildfire Smoke Along Colorado's Front Range in 2020: An Evaluation of PM 2.5 Monitor Spacing and Smoke Forecasts." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 131, no. 18, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046306.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Mcguire, Brandon A. AU - Pierce, Jeffrey R. AU - Ford, Bonne AU - Magzamen, Sheryl AU - Ahmadov, Ravan AU - James, Eric AU - Anderson, Ashley AU - Abrams, Katie AU - Fischer, Emily V. AB - The 2020 wildfires caused widespread elevated fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) concentrations across the western U.S. The Colorado Front Range experienced multiple smoke episodes from nearby fires and fires hundreds of kilometers away. Multiple days (88 total) with elevated PM 2.5 along the Front Range occurred in 2020 between July and October. Smoke that originated solely from regional fires, defined here as the wildfires in Colorado, southern Wyoming, and eastern Utah, was present on 25 days, 23 days were impacted by solely long‐range transported smoke, and 40 days were impacted by both types of smoke. We leverage these events to (a) quantify the required spacing between PM 2.5 monitors to resolve concentration gradients in smoke plumes, and (b) evaluate the ability of a forecast system to warn the public of regional versus transported smoke. We use regulatory and community low‐cost PurpleAir monitoring networks and the High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR‐Smoke) forecast. During smoke events, the PM 2.5 concentration can deviate significantly from the nearest regulatory monitor, suggesting that the regulatory monitor network is insufficient to quantify exposure during smoke events. We find a steady decrease in correlation with distance during periods with smoke from regional fires when monitors are further than ∼8 km apart. While overall, the HRRR‐Smoke predicts >84% of the elevated hourly concentrations to within one U.S. Air Quality Index category, it performs better when long‐range smoke is present. Characterizing exposure from regional fires continues to challenge both regulatory monitoring networks and forecasting systems. AN - noaa:76516 DO - https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JD046306 IS - 18 J2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres PB - American Geophysical Union (AGU) PY - 2026 T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131(18) TI - Wildfire Smoke Along Colorado's Front Range in 2020: An Evaluation of PM 2.5 Monitor Spacing and Smoke Forecasts VL - 131 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76516 ER -
DRIFteRS : A dataset of drift invertebrate densities in streams and rivers across western North America, 1997-2024

Toskey, Elsa K.

;

Matsuoka, Toshio

2026 | Ecology, 107(9) | PDF

Prey availability is among the most influential and highly variable determinants of fish growth and freshwater habitat carrying capacity, yet it remains understudied compared to physical habitat variables (Ouellet et al., 2025; Rosenfeld et al., 2014; Weber et al., 2017). We often lack a clear understanding of how much food is available to fishes, ...

09/25/2026

Title : DRIFteRS : A dataset of drift invertebrate densities in streams and rivers across western North America, 1997-2024 Personal Author(s) : Toskey, Elsa K.;Matsuoka, Toshio;Kiffney, Peter M.;Naman, Sean M.;Liermann, Martin C.;Bailey, Javan;Beauchamp, David A.;Bellmore, J. Ryan;Binckley, Christopher A.;Blumenshine, Steve;Caldwell, Timothy J.;Carey, Michael P.;Claeson, Shannon;Clawson, Chelsea;Cox, Rosa;Cromwell, Kara J.;Danehy, Robert J.;Dodrill, Michael J.;Duda, Jeffrey J.;Fellman, Jason B.;Grimm, Adrianne Z.;Hallbert, Tyson B.;Jordan, Chris E.;Keeley, Ernest R.;Kennedy, Brian P.;Kennedy, Theodore A.;Kohler, Andre E.;Lowery, Erin D.;Macneale, Kate;Martens, Kyle D.;Morley, Sarah A.;Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.;Neuswanger, Jason B.;O'Dowd, Alison;Pneh, Shelley;Power, Mary;Rhoades, Suzanne J.;Rosenfeld, Jordan;Rossi, Gabriel;Sanderson, Beth L.;Shelby, Katy K.;Starkey‐Owens, Thomas;Thompson, Jamie N.;Volk, Carol;Williamshen, Jasmine S.;Wisseman, Robert W.; Published Date : 2026 Source : Ecology, 107(9) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70387 Journal Title : Ecology
Toskey, E. K., Matsuoka, T., Kiffney, P. M., Naman, S. M., Liermann, M. C., Bailey, J., Beauchamp, D. A., Bellmore, J. R., Binckley, C. A., Blumenshine, S., Caldwell, T. J., Carey, M. P., Claeson, S., Clawson, C., Cox, R., Cromwell, K. J., Danehy, R. J., Dodrill, M. J., Duda, J. J., ... Wisseman, R. W. (2026). DRIFteRS : A dataset of drift invertebrate densities in streams and rivers across western North America, 1997-2024. Ecology, 107(9). https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70387

Toskey, Elsa K., Toshio Matsuoka, Peter M. Kiffney, Sean M. Naman, Martin C. Liermann, Javan Bailey, and David A. Beauchamp, et al.. "DRIFteRS : A dataset of drift invertebrate densities in streams and rivers across western North America, 1997-2024." Ecology 107, no. 9 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70387.

Toskey, Elsa K., et al. "DRIFteRS : A dataset of drift invertebrate densities in streams and rivers across western North America, 1997-2024." Ecology, vol. 107, no. 9, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70387.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Toskey, Elsa K. AU - Matsuoka, Toshio AU - Kiffney, Peter M. AU - Naman, Sean M. AU - Liermann, Martin C. AU - Bailey, Javan AU - Beauchamp, David A. AU - Bellmore, J. Ryan AU - Binckley, Christopher A. AU - Blumenshine, Steve AU - Caldwell, Timothy J. AU - Carey, Michael P. AU - Claeson, Shannon AU - Clawson, Chelsea AU - Cox, Rosa AU - Cromwell, Kara J. AU - Danehy, Robert J. AU - Dodrill, Michael J. AU - Duda, Jeffrey J. AU - Fellman, Jason B. AU - Grimm, Adrianne Z. AU - Hallbert, Tyson B. AU - Jordan, Chris E. AU - Keeley, Ernest R. AU - Kennedy, Brian P. AU - Kennedy, Theodore A. AU - Kohler, Andre E. AU - Lowery, Erin D. AU - Macneale, Kate AU - Martens, Kyle D. AU - Morley, Sarah A. AU - Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D. AU - Neuswanger, Jason B. AU - O'Dowd, Alison AU - Pneh, Shelley AU - Power, Mary AU - Rhoades, Suzanne J. AU - Rosenfeld, Jordan AU - Rossi, Gabriel AU - Sanderson, Beth L. AU - Shelby, Katy K. AU - Starkey‐Owens, Thomas AU - Thompson, Jamie N. AU - Volk, Carol AU - Williamshen, Jasmine S. AU - Wisseman, Robert W. AB - Prey availability is among the most influential and highly variable determinants of fish growth and freshwater habitat carrying capacity, yet it remains understudied compared to physical habitat variables (Ouellet et al., 2025; Rosenfeld et al., 2014; Weber et al., 2017). We often lack a clear understanding of how much food is available to fishes, how it varies spatially and temporally, and how it influences responses to restoration (Ouellet et al., 2025; Rossi et al., 2024; Wipfli et al., 2010). Drift invertebrates-the primary food source for juvenile salmonids and other drift-foraging fishes-play a pivotal role in these dynamics. To better understand the spatiotemporal variability of drift invertebrate abundance and biomass across the freshwater range of drift-feeding salmonids in western North America, we compiled the DRift Invertebrates For salmonids in River Systems (DRIFteRS) dataset. The dataset encompasses 6125 samples of drift invertebrates, and, for a subset of drift samples, associated benthic invertebrate density data, collected from 1360 reaches on 459 unique rivers and streams spanning 55 river basins considered hydrologically independent (i.e., not nested within the same larger watershed) across British Columbia, Canada, and the U.S. states of Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Sample sites represent a diverse array of river and stream habitats (e.g., headwater, mainstem, side channel), in watersheds with diverse land uses (e.g., urban, wilderness, agricultural), and disturbance histories (e.g., fire, restoration). Collected between 1997 and 2024, the data span the full calendar year and capture daily and seasonal patterns in drift abundance and biomass densities. When paired with water quality and quantity data as well as remotely sensed environmental landscape data, such as land use/land cover, climate, and disturbance history, channel morphology, and riparian vegetation composition, the DRIFteRS dataset can aid in identifying key drivers of drift invertebrate densities and mean body size and support predictive modeling in unsampled locations and times. The dataset may also be used to analyze aquatic-terrestrial resource flows, derive prey-encounter rates and profitability (mean prey size), and inform broader investigations of sit-and-wait foraging ecology, especially when paired with data on drift-foraging predators. For salmonid-focused applications, the dataset can be integrated into habitat evaluation models, including bioenergetic (e.g., Naman et al., 2019) and life cycle models (e.g., Beechie et al., 2023), to improve estimates of habitat capacity and population dynamics for river- and stream-rearing salmonids. Understanding prey availability dynamics is increasingly important, because rising water temperatures increase salmonid metabolic demands (Crozier et al., 2010). Flow regime transitions (i.e., snow or glacier dominated to rain dominated; Beechie et al., 2013), wildfire frequency and intensity (Hessburg et al., 2021), as well as plant community and phenology shifts (Cleland et al., 2007; Franklin et al., 2016) are all predicted to change with rising temperatures and are potential drivers of terrestrial and aquatic invertebrate prey quality and availability in lotic systems. These insights can ultimately inform restoration prioritization and design, helping managers consider food resource implications when evaluating restoration priorities and match habitat improvement to food supply. The data are released under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license and may be reused with attribution. AN - noaa:76515 C4 - PMC13575719 DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70387 IS - 9 J2 - Ecology PB - Wiley PY - 2026 T2 - Ecology T2 - Ecology, 107(9) TI - DRIFteRS : A dataset of drift invertebrate densities in streams and rivers across western North America, 1997-2024 VL - 107 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76515 ER -
Development of the CCPP-based GEFS-aerosols component in the Unified Forecast System for subseasonal prediction (UFS-Chem v1.0)

Zhang, Li

;

Li, Haiqin

2026 | Geoscientific Model Development, 19(18), 8597-8626 | PDF

The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) version 12 has been operational at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since September 2020, with GEFS-Aerosols serving as its global aerosol forecasting member. In 2023, GEFS-Aerosols was upgraded to version 12.3 in operations, incorporating improvements to wet deposition, anthropogenic and ...

09/25/2026

Title : Development of the CCPP-based GEFS-aerosols component in the Unified Forecast System for subseasonal prediction (UFS-Chem v1.0) Personal Author(s) : Zhang, Li;Li, Haiqin;Grell, Georg A.;Bhattacharjee, Partha S.;Ferrada, Gonzalo A.;Green, Benjamin W.;Sun, Shan;Bernardet, Ligia;Jensen, Anders;Baker, Barry;Pan, Li;He, Jian;Schnell, Jordan;Ahmadov, Ravan;Trahan, Samuel;Swales, Dustin;Cheng, Anning;Yang, Fanglin;Schwantes, Rebecca H.;Mcdonald, Brian C.;Heinzeller, Dominikus;Kondragunta, Shobha; Published Date : 2026 Source : Geoscientific Model Development, 19(18), 8597-8626 DOI : https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8597-2026 Journal Title : Geoscientific Model Development
Zhang, L., Li, H., Grell, G. A., Bhattacharjee, P. S., Ferrada, G. A., Green, B. W., Sun, S., Bernardet, L., Jensen, A., Baker, B., Pan, L., He, J., Schnell, J., Ahmadov, R., Trahan, S., Swales, D., Cheng, A., Yang, F., Schwantes, R. H., ... Kondragunta, S. (2026). Development of the CCPP-based GEFS-aerosols component in the Unified Forecast System for subseasonal prediction (UFS-Chem v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 19(18). https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8597-2026

Zhang, Li, Haiqin Li, Georg A. Grell, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Gonzalo A. Ferrada, Benjamin W. Green, and Shan Sun, et al.. "Development of the CCPP-based GEFS-aerosols component in the Unified Forecast System for subseasonal prediction (UFS-Chem v1.0)." Geoscientific Model Development 19, no. 18 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8597-2026.

Zhang, Li, et al. "Development of the CCPP-based GEFS-aerosols component in the Unified Forecast System for subseasonal prediction (UFS-Chem v1.0)." Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 19, no. 18, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8597-2026.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Zhang, Li AU - Li, Haiqin AU - Grell, Georg A. AU - Bhattacharjee, Partha S. AU - Ferrada, Gonzalo A. AU - Green, Benjamin W. AU - Sun, Shan AU - Bernardet, Ligia AU - Jensen, Anders AU - Baker, Barry AU - Pan, Li AU - He, Jian AU - Schnell, Jordan AU - Ahmadov, Ravan AU - Trahan, Samuel AU - Swales, Dustin AU - Cheng, Anning AU - Yang, Fanglin AU - Schwantes, Rebecca H. AU - Mcdonald, Brian C. AU - Heinzeller, Dominikus AU - Kondragunta, Shobha AB - The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) version 12 has been operational at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since September 2020, with GEFS-Aerosols serving as its global aerosol forecasting member. In 2023, GEFS-Aerosols was upgraded to version 12.3 in operations, incorporating improvements to wet deposition, anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, aerosol optical depth calculations, and the FENGSHA dust emission scheme. While GEFS-Aerosols provides valuable operational aerosol forecasts on medium-range timescales, its one-way coupling strategy restricts aerosol-atmosphere interactions to prescribed climatological fields, thereby precluding fully interactive aerosol feedbacks for extended-range prediction. To overcome this limitation, we develop the Unified Forecast System coupled with Chemistry (UFS-Chem), which incorporates the Configurable Atmospheric Chemistry (CATChem) library and modeling component to include both aerosol and gas-phase chemistry schemes. In the current UFS-Chem configuration, the aerosol component is based on the operational GEFS-Aerosols v12.3 and implemented using the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) framework. Relative to GEFS-Aerosols v12.3, UFS-Chem incorporates several enhancements, including inline aerosol radiative feedback, inline large-scale wet deposition, and updated FENGSHA dust scheme. In particular, the integration of inline large-scale wet deposition and aerosol indirect effects through the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics scheme improves the representation of aerosol-cloud interactions and supports weather and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting when fully coupled with ocean, sea ice, land, and wave components. The performance of UFS-Chem in weather and subseasonal prediction is evaluated against reanalysis data, ground-based measurements, and satellite observations. The relative impacts of aerosol radiative and indirect effects on weather and subseasonal predictions are investigated and quantified, advancing our understanding of how aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions influence forecast skill across timescales. AN - noaa:76514 DO - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8597-2026 IS - 18 J2 - Geoscientific Model Development PB - Copernicus GmbH PY - 2026 T2 - Geoscientific Model Development T2 - Geoscientific Model Development, 19(18), 8597-8626 TI - Development of the CCPP-based GEFS-aerosols component in the Unified Forecast System for subseasonal prediction (UFS-Chem v1.0) VL - 19 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76514 ER -
Stratospheric wave predictability enhances surface forecasts over North America

Ding, Xiuyuan

;

Xiang, Baoqiang

2026 | Science Advances, 12(38) | PDF

Advances in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting have broad socioeconomic benefits. Stratospheric variability has been identified as a major source of surface predictability on S2S timescales, yet its influence on forecasting North American cold extremes has not been fully understood. Here, using hindcasts from a coupled S2S forecast system, w ...

09/25/2026

Title : Stratospheric wave predictability enhances surface forecasts over North America Personal Author(s) : Ding, Xiuyuan;Xiang, Baoqiang;Chen, Gang;Wang, Liping; Published Date : 2026 Source : Science Advances, 12(38) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aee4171 Journal Title : Science Advances
Ding, X., Xiang, B., Chen, G., & Wang, L. (2026). Stratospheric wave predictability enhances surface forecasts over North America. Science Advances, 12(38). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aee4171

Ding, Xiuyuan, Baoqiang Xiang, Gang Chen, and Liping Wang. "Stratospheric wave predictability enhances surface forecasts over North America." Science Advances 12, no. 38 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aee4171.

Ding, Xiuyuan, et al. "Stratospheric wave predictability enhances surface forecasts over North America." Science Advances, vol. 12, no. 38, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aee4171.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Ding, Xiuyuan AU - Xiang, Baoqiang AU - Chen, Gang AU - Wang, Liping AB - Advances in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting have broad socioeconomic benefits. Stratospheric variability has been identified as a major source of surface predictability on S2S timescales, yet its influence on forecasting North American cold extremes has not been fully understood. Here, using hindcasts from a coupled S2S forecast system, we identify a wave-1-like pattern among leading sources of predictability in the lower stratosphere during extended winters. This mode, characterized by strong stratospheric wave activity, improves second-week temperature prediction over North America by 15% (2 to 28%). It also increases the likelihood of North American cold extremes by 50%. Prediction skill for these extremes increases by 28% in forecasts conditioned on the wave-1-like stratospheric mode, across regions inhabited by over 69% of the Canadian population and over 30% of the U.S. population. These skill enhancements are attributed to the vertical wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, distinct from the well-known downward influence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW). By conditioning forecasts on stratospheric states, our findings highlight strong stratospheric waves as windows of opportunity for skillful winter S2S predictions. AN - noaa:76513 C4 - PMC13588185 DO - https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aee4171 IS - 38 J2 - Science Advances PB - American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) PY - 2026 T2 - Science Advances T2 - Science Advances, 12(38) TI - Stratospheric wave predictability enhances surface forecasts over North America VL - 12 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76513 ER -
Circumglobal Distribution of the Benthic Ctenophore Vallicula multiformis (Rankin 1956), Documented Through Diverse Observation Types

Bezio, Nicholas

;

Browning, Isabel

2026 | Journal of Biogeography, 53(9) | PDF

Aim To improve our understanding of the distribution of Vallicula multiformis , we integrate a series of diverse observation types, including citizen science records, published literature, metagenomic datasets, published sequences, and newly acquired material, to evaluate whether geographically isolated records reflect a single broadly distributed ...

09/25/2026

Title : Circumglobal Distribution of the Benthic Ctenophore Vallicula multiformis (Rankin 1956), Documented Through Diverse Observation Types Personal Author(s) : Bezio, Nicholas;Browning, Isabel;Rabeling, Dennis;Pujolar, José Martin;Bely, Alexandra E.;Collins, Allen G.; Published Date : 2026 Source : Journal of Biogeography, 53(9) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70363 Journal Title : Journal of Biogeography
Bezio, N., Browning, I., Rabeling, D., Pujolar, J. M., Bely, A. E., & Collins, A. G. (2026). Circumglobal Distribution of the Benthic Ctenophore Vallicula multiformis (Rankin 1956), Documented Through Diverse Observation Types. Journal of Biogeography, 53(9). https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70363

Bezio, Nicholas, Isabel Browning, Dennis Rabeling, José Martin Pujolar, Alexandra E. Bely, and Allen G. Collins. "Circumglobal Distribution of the Benthic Ctenophore Vallicula multiformis (Rankin 1956), Documented Through Diverse Observation Types." Journal of Biogeography 53, no. 9 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70363.

Bezio, Nicholas, et al. "Circumglobal Distribution of the Benthic Ctenophore Vallicula multiformis (Rankin 1956), Documented Through Diverse Observation Types." Journal of Biogeography, vol. 53, no. 9, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70363.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Bezio, Nicholas AU - Browning, Isabel AU - Rabeling, Dennis AU - Pujolar, José Martin AU - Bely, Alexandra E. AU - Collins, Allen G. AB - Aim To improve our understanding of the distribution of Vallicula multiformis , we integrate a series of diverse observation types, including citizen science records, published literature, metagenomic datasets, published sequences, and newly acquired material, to evaluate whether geographically isolated records reflect a single broadly distributed species or unresolved cryptic diversity. Location Circumtropical and subtropical marine environments. Taxon Vallicula multiformis (Phylum: Ctenophora, Order: Platyctenida, Family: Benthoplanidae). Methods In this study, we use a broad range of observations, as listed previously, to (a) elucidate the geographic range of V. multiformis through morphological and phylogenetic analysis, (b) assess the possibility of cryptic speciation, and (c) investigate population genetic structure across major ocean regions. Results After reviewing the published literature, confirming more than 100 photo‐based observations in iNaturalist, and analysing 67 mitochondrial COX1 sequences using three species delimitation models, we can confirm 107 iNaturalist citizen science observations, 20 literature sources, 43 published sequences from specimens and environmental samples, and 11 newly sequenced specimens. Additionally, we find that the holotype of Coeloplana reichelti from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, is a misidentified V. multiformis . Main Conclusions We conclude that all observations of V. multiformis belong to a single species that inhabits shallow tropical and subtropical waters worldwide. Population genetic analyses using COX1 suggest that this broad distribution is an ancient phenomenon, likely achieved through long‐distance natural dispersal. We also detect a signal consistent with anthropogenic introductions. Future work is needed to test these hypotheses and more rigorously assess population histories and hypothetical migration pathways. AN - noaa:76512 DO - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70363 IS - 9 J2 - Journal of Biogeography PB - Wiley PY - 2026 T2 - Journal of Biogeography T2 - Journal of Biogeography, 53(9) TI - Circumglobal Distribution of the Benthic Ctenophore Vallicula multiformis (Rankin 1956), Documented Through Diverse Observation Types VL - 53 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76512 ER -
Insult to Injury: Population Impacts of Sublethal Entanglement and Vessel Strikes of Common Bottlenose Dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) in Barataria Basin, Louisiana, 2011-2023

Zolman, Eric S.

;

Speakman, Todd

2026 | Marine Mammal Science, 42(4) | PDF

Human interactions, specifically fishery entanglements (FI) and vessel strikes (VI), threaten marine mammals, including the Barataria Bay Estuarine System (BBE) Stock of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). We reviewed whole‐body photographs to estimate the prevalence of sublethal entanglement and vessel strike scars for 227 dolphins sa ...

09/25/2026

Title : Insult to Injury: Population Impacts of Sublethal Entanglement and Vessel Strikes of Common Bottlenose Dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) in Barataria Basin, Louisiana, 2011-2023 Personal Author(s) : Zolman, Eric S.;Speakman, Todd;Morey, Jeanine;Hart, Leslie;Smith, Cynthia R.;Mcfee, Wayne;Schwacke, Lori;Takeshita, Ryan; Published Date : 2026 Source : Marine Mammal Science, 42(4) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.70240 Journal Title : Marine Mammal Science
Zolman, E. S., Speakman, T., Morey, J., Hart, L., Smith, C. R., Mcfee, W., Schwacke, L., & Takeshita, R. (2026). Insult to Injury: Population Impacts of Sublethal Entanglement and Vessel Strikes of Common Bottlenose Dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) in Barataria Basin, Louisiana, 2011-2023. Marine Mammal Science, 42(4). https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.70240

Zolman, Eric S., Todd Speakman, Jeanine Morey, Leslie Hart, Cynthia R. Smith, Wayne Mcfee, Lori Schwacke, and Ryan Takeshita. "Insult to Injury: Population Impacts of Sublethal Entanglement and Vessel Strikes of Common Bottlenose Dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) in Barataria Basin, Louisiana, 2011-2023." Marine Mammal Science 42, no. 4 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.70240.

Zolman, Eric S., et al. "Insult to Injury: Population Impacts of Sublethal Entanglement and Vessel Strikes of Common Bottlenose Dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) in Barataria Basin, Louisiana, 2011-2023." Marine Mammal Science, vol. 42, no. 4, 2026. NOAA IR. https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.70240.
Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Zolman, Eric S. AU - Speakman, Todd AU - Morey, Jeanine AU - Hart, Leslie AU - Smith, Cynthia R. AU - Mcfee, Wayne AU - Schwacke, Lori AU - Takeshita, Ryan AB - Human interactions, specifically fishery entanglements (FI) and vessel strikes (VI), threaten marine mammals, including the Barataria Bay Estuarine System (BBE) Stock of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). We reviewed whole‐body photographs to estimate the prevalence of sublethal entanglement and vessel strike scars for 227 dolphins sampled during catch‐and‐release health assessments, with 128 dolphins meeting analysis criteria. Two biologists independently classified scars, with good inter‐rater agreement for FI ( = 0.78; 95% CI [0.70, 0.86]) and excellent agreement for VI (= 0.91 [0.85, 0.97]). Fifty‐nine individuals (46.1% [37.5, 54.9]) had signs of entanglement; 19 (14.8% [9.6, 22.2]) dolphins had evidence of vessel strike. We fit generalized additive models to examine associations of FI or VI with sex and length. For FI, models were similar to the base model. For VI, the model that included only sex was selected, with males more likely to have strike scars (p = 0.02). The prevalence of interactions in BBE dolphins is elevated compared to other populations and could impact the stock's recovery following the 2010 DWH oil spill. Reducing human impacts basin‐wide, but especially near Grand Isle, Louisiana could help restoration efforts. AN - noaa:76511 DO - https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.70240 IS - 4 J2 - Marine Mammal Science PB - Wiley PY - 2026 T2 - Marine Mammal Science T2 - Marine Mammal Science, 42(4) TI - Insult to Injury: Population Impacts of Sublethal Entanglement and Vessel Strikes of Common Bottlenose Dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) in Barataria Basin, Louisiana, 2011-2023 VL - 42 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76511 ER -

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