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Showing 21 - 40 of 126 results

Fisher-based assessments of sea turtle bycatch in small-scale fisheries in Pacific Mexico

Grimm, Kerry E ;

Mancini, Agnese

2025 | Endangered Species Research (2025) | pdf

Reducing bycatch of sea turtles and other protected species in artisanal fisheries depends on first understanding where, how, and to what extent bycatch is occurring. We implemented rapid bycatch assessments (RBAs)—i.e. port-based surveys with fishers—along the Pacific coast of Mexico and combined results with those from a previous RBA effort. Resu ...

01/23/2026

Title : Fisher-based assessments of sea turtle bycatch in small-scale fisheries in Pacific Mexico Personal Author(s) : Grimm, Kerry E;Mancini, Agnese;Seminoff, Jeffrey A;Alfaro-Shigueto, Joanna;Andrade Valencia, Victoria;Barragán Rocha, Ana Rebeca;Briseño Dueñas, Raquel;Comer Santos, Katherine;Dávalos Alonso, Nestor A;Delgado Trejo, Carlos;Hart, Catherine E;Leal Sepúlveda, Valeria;Ley-Quiñónez, César P;Lucero Romero, Jesús S;Miranda Marin, María Isabel;Oceguera, Karen;Oceguera, Helga;Ortíz-Alvarez, Clara;Ramos de la Torre, Diana Arely;Santana Hernández, Heriberto;Sarti Martínez, Adriana Laura;Tello-Sahagún, Luis Ángel;Zavala Norzagaray, Alan A;Zavala Fèlix, Kevin A;Wallace, Bryan P; Published Date : 2025 Source : Endangered Species Research (2025) DOI : https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01446 Journal Title : Endangered Species Research Grimm, Kerry E et al. (2025). Fisher-based assessments of sea turtle bycatch in small-scale fisheries in Pacific Mexico. https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01446 Grimm, Kerry E et al. "Fisher-based assessments of sea turtle bycatch in small-scale fisheries in Pacific Mexico" (2025), https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01446 Grimm, Kerry E et al. "Fisher-based assessments of sea turtle bycatch in small-scale fisheries in Pacific Mexico" , 2025, https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01446 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Grimm, Kerry E AU - Mancini, Agnese AU - Seminoff, Jeffrey A AU - Alfaro-Shigueto, Joanna AU - Andrade Valencia, Victoria AU - Barragán Rocha, Ana Rebeca AU - Briseño Dueñas, Raquel AU - Comer Santos, Katherine AU - Dávalos Alonso, Nestor A AU - Delgado Trejo, Carlos AU - Hart, Catherine E AU - Leal Sepúlveda, Valeria AU - Ley-Quiñónez, César P AU - Lucero Romero, Jesús S AU - Miranda Marin, María Isabel AU - Oceguera, Karen AU - Oceguera, Helga AU - Ortíz-Alvarez, Clara AU - Ramos de la Torre, Diana Arely AU - Santana Hernández, Heriberto AU - Sarti Martínez, Adriana Laura AU - Tello-Sahagún, Luis Ángel AU - Zavala Norzagaray, Alan A AU - Zavala Fèlix, Kevin A AU - Wallace, Bryan P AB - Reducing bycatch of sea turtles and other protected species in artisanal fisheries depends on first understanding where, how, and to what extent bycatch is occurring. We implemented rapid bycatch assessments (RBAs)—i.e. port-based surveys with fishers—along the Pacific coast of Mexico and combined results with those from a previous RBA effort. Results obtained from 1357 respondents across 99 communities in 11 states provided valuable insights about fishing gear and operations as well as bycatch of 5 different sea turtle species. Fishing gears varied geographically, but gillnets, followed by hook and line gears, were most commonly used. Species-specific and seasonal patterns of sea turtle bycatch also varied geographically, with olive ridleys Lepidochelysolivacea, followed by green turtles Cheloniamydas, being the most commonly reported bycatch species, especially in known feeding and breeding areas and periods. Loggerhead Carettacaretta bycatch was reported only in northwest Mexico, an area known to support foraging and developmental areas for juvenile and subadult North Pacific loggerheads. Leatherback Dermochelyscoriacea bycatch was most frequently reported in the Gulf of California (Sea of Cortez), a documented feeding area, and southern Mexico, off nesting beaches. Most respondents indicated that turtles captured incidentally were released alive, but mortality, as well as consumption and sale, were also reported fates of bycaught turtles. Our results provide a robust baseline of valuable information about characteristics of small-scale fishing and turtle bycatch in Pacific Mexico and highlight ample opportunities for informing strategies to promote sustainable fishing and bycatch reduction. AN - noaa:72371 DO - https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01446 J2 - Endangered Species Research PB - Inter-Research Science Center PY - 2025 T2 - Endangered Species Research T2 - Endangered Species Research (2025) TI - Fisher-based assessments of sea turtle bycatch in small-scale fisheries in Pacific Mexico UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72371 ER -
Urban heat forecasting in small cities: evaluation of a high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction model

Huang, Yuqi

;

Wang, Chenghao

2025 | Geoscientific Model Development, 18(22), 9237-9256 | pdf

With rising global temperatures, urban environments are increasingly vulnerable to heat stress, often exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. While most UHI research has focused on large metropolitan areas around the world, relatively smaller-sized cities (with a population 100 000–300 000) remain understudied despite their growing expos ...

01/23/2026

Title : Urban heat forecasting in small cities: evaluation of a high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction model Personal Author(s) : Huang, Yuqi;Wang, Chenghao;Danzig, Tyler;Lee, Temple R.;Pal, Sandip; Published Date : 2025 Source : Geoscientific Model Development, 18(22), 9237-9256 DOI : https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9237-2025 Journal Title : Geoscientific Model Development Huang, Yuqi et al. (2025). Urban heat forecasting in small cities: evaluation of a high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction model. 18(22). https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9237-2025 Huang, Yuqi et al. "Urban heat forecasting in small cities: evaluation of a high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction model" 18, no. 22 (2025), https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9237-2025 Huang, Yuqi et al. "Urban heat forecasting in small cities: evaluation of a high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction model" vol. 18, no. 22, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9237-2025 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Huang, Yuqi AU - Wang, Chenghao AU - Danzig, Tyler AU - Lee, Temple R. AU - Pal, Sandip AB - With rising global temperatures, urban environments are increasingly vulnerable to heat stress, often exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. While most UHI research has focused on large metropolitan areas around the world, relatively smaller-sized cities (with a population 100 000–300 000) remain understudied despite their growing exposure to extreme heat and meteorological significance. In particular, urban heat advection (UHA), the transport of heat by mean winds, remains a key but underexplored mechanism in most modeling frameworks. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential tools for simulating urban hydrometeorological conditions, yet most prior evaluations have focused on retrospective reanalysis products rather than forecasts. In this study, we assess the performance of a widely used operational weather forecast model, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), as a representative example of current NWP systems. We investigate its ability to predict spatial and temporal patterns of urban heat and UHA within and around Lubbock, Texas, a small-sized city located in a semi-arid environment in the southwestern US. Using data collected between 1 September 2023, and 31 August 2024 from the Urban Heat Island Experiment in Lubbock, Texas (U-HEAT) network and five West Texas Mesonet stations, we compare 18 h forecasts against in situ observations. HRRR forecasts exhibit a consistent nighttime cold bias at both urban and rural sites, a daytime warm bias at rural locations, and a pervasive dry bias across all seasons. The model also systematically overestimates near-surface wind speeds, further limiting its ability to accurately predict UHA. Although HRRR captures the expected slower nocturnal cooling in urban areas, it does not well capture advective heat transport under most wind regimes. Our findings reveal both systematic biases and urban representation limitations in current high-resolution NWP forecasts. Our forecast–observation comparisons underscore the need for improved urban parameterizations and evaluation frameworks focused on forecast skill, with important implications for heat-risk warning systems and forecasting in small and mid-sized cities. AN - noaa:72370 DO - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9237-2025 IS - 22 J2 - Geoscientific Model Development PB - Copernicus GmbH PY - 2025 T2 - Geoscientific Model Development T2 - Geoscientific Model Development, 18(22), 9237-9256 TI - Urban heat forecasting in small cities: evaluation of a high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction model VL - 18 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72370 ER -
Widespread and Persistent Mercury Contamination Beyond Disposal Sites: Case study on Challenges for Remediation in Artisanal Gold Mines of Tanzania

Tungaraza, Clavery

;

Mariki, Eliapenda Elisante

2026 | Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, 90(1) | pdf

Many national and international initiatives aim to control and limit the use of mercury (Hg) in gold extraction. However, the feasibility of Hg eradication from the environment depends on understanding the extent of its distribution. This case study focuses on the spatial and vertical distribution of total mercury (THg) residues at five artisanal m ...

01/23/2026

Title : Widespread and Persistent Mercury Contamination Beyond Disposal Sites: Case study on Challenges for Remediation in Artisanal Gold Mines of Tanzania Personal Author(s) : Tungaraza, Clavery;Mariki, Eliapenda Elisante;Cohen, Mark D.; Published Date : 2026 Source : Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, 90(1) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s00244-025-01172-3 Journal Title : Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology Tungaraza, Clavery et al. (2026). Widespread and Persistent Mercury Contamination Beyond Disposal Sites: Case study on Challenges for Remediation in Artisanal Gold Mines of Tanzania. 90(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00244-025-01172-3 Tungaraza, Clavery and Mariki, Eliapenda Elisante and Cohen, Mark D. "Widespread and Persistent Mercury Contamination Beyond Disposal Sites: Case study on Challenges for Remediation in Artisanal Gold Mines of Tanzania" 90, no. 1 (2026), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00244-025-01172-3 Tungaraza, Clavery et al. "Widespread and Persistent Mercury Contamination Beyond Disposal Sites: Case study on Challenges for Remediation in Artisanal Gold Mines of Tanzania" vol. 90, no. 1, 2026, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00244-025-01172-3 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Tungaraza, Clavery AU - Mariki, Eliapenda Elisante AU - Cohen, Mark D. AB - Many national and international initiatives aim to control and limit the use of mercury (Hg) in gold extraction. However, the feasibility of Hg eradication from the environment depends on understanding the extent of its distribution. This case study focuses on the spatial and vertical distribution of total mercury (THg) residues at five artisanal mining sites in Tanzania namely, Mgongo, Sekenke, Nyarugusu, Rwamgasa, and Mugusu to assess the feasibility of remediating the problem. The trend showed presence of THg residues in surface layers (0–20 cm), decreasing with depth but still detectable in deeper layers (> 20–100 cm). A horizontal distribution in surface-layer concentrations was also observed along the Mabubi River, which drains across Mugusu mine into Lake Victoria. Among all sites, the highest surface-layer (20 cm) total mercury (THg) concentration was 1.48 ± 0.02 mg/kg, measured from a sample collected at the Nyarugusu mine site, with a moderate decrease to 0.12 ± 0.001 mg/kg at a depth of 100 cm. Other soil samples from the Rwamgasa mine site showed THg concentrations of 0.048 ± 0.012 mg/kg and 0.082 ± 0.01 mg/kg at depths of 70 and 80 cm, respectively. These findings suggest that significant THg residues are detected from surface to deeper layers and wide area of river sediment distribution, mediated by physical, environmental, biological and chemical processes that support simultaneous Hg transport and suspension. The THg residues in soils and sediments challenge the feasibility of remediation efforts in areas with similar wide contamination extents. They demonstrate a long-term legacy of contamination that will continue to impact environmental quality in many regions affected by artisanal mining. AN - noaa:72369 DO - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00244-025-01172-3 IS - 1 J2 - Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology PB - Springer Science and Business Media LLC PY - 2026 T2 - Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology T2 - Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, 90(1) TI - Widespread and Persistent Mercury Contamination Beyond Disposal Sites: Case study on Challenges for Remediation in Artisanal Gold Mines of Tanzania VL - 90 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72369 ER -
Behaviour of Temperate Reef Fish Species Around Oyster Aquaculture Farms and Natural Rock Reefs

Phillips, Gillian

;

Rose, Julie M.

2025 | Aquaculture, Fish and Fisheries, 6(1) | pdf

Cultivation of eastern oysters using aquaculture gear increases habitat for temperate reef fish. Cunner (Tautogolabrus adspersus), scup (Stenotomus chrysops) and tautog (Tautoga onitis) inhabit a variety of complex natural and manmade habitats, including oyster aquaculture cage farms. Underwater video was recorded on two cage farms and a rock reef ...

01/23/2026

Title : Behaviour of Temperate Reef Fish Species Around Oyster Aquaculture Farms and Natural Rock Reefs Personal Author(s) : Phillips, Gillian;Rose, Julie M.;Clark, Paul;Dixon, Mark;Redman, Dylan H.;Smith, Barry;Auster, Peter J.;Verkade, Alison;Schillaci, Christopher;Mercaldo‐Allen, Renee; Published Date : 2025 Source : Aquaculture, Fish and Fisheries, 6(1) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1002/aff2.70159 Journal Title : Aquaculture, Fish and Fisheries Phillips, Gillian et al. (2025). Behaviour of Temperate Reef Fish Species Around Oyster Aquaculture Farms and Natural Rock Reefs. 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/aff2.70159 Phillips, Gillian et al. "Behaviour of Temperate Reef Fish Species Around Oyster Aquaculture Farms and Natural Rock Reefs" 6, no. 1 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1002/aff2.70159 Phillips, Gillian et al. "Behaviour of Temperate Reef Fish Species Around Oyster Aquaculture Farms and Natural Rock Reefs" vol. 6, no. 1, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1002/aff2.70159 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Phillips, Gillian AU - Rose, Julie M. AU - Clark, Paul AU - Dixon, Mark AU - Redman, Dylan H. AU - Smith, Barry AU - Auster, Peter J. AU - Verkade, Alison AU - Schillaci, Christopher AU - Mercaldo‐Allen, Renee AB - Cultivation of eastern oysters using aquaculture gear increases habitat for temperate reef fish. Cunner (Tautogolabrus adspersus), scup (Stenotomus chrysops) and tautog (Tautoga onitis) inhabit a variety of complex natural and manmade habitats, including oyster aquaculture cage farms. Underwater video was recorded on two cage farms and a rock reef during May–September 2018 to quantify fish behavioural interactions and to assess ecological services provided by aquaculture gear, relative to natural structured seafloor. To collect video, action cameras were mounted on four study cages at a high-density farm of 40–100 commercial cages (dense farm), on four single cages interspersed on low relief seafloor (sparse farm) and adjacent to four boulders on a rock reef (rock reef), within an embayment off Milford, Connecticut in Long Island Sound (NW Atlantic). Video was recorded hourly in 8-min segments from 7 AM to 7 PM. Behaviours associated with habitat provisioning (e.g., courtship/reproduction, escape from predators, foraging, sheltering, schooling/grouping, territoriality) were observed for all three fish species on cages and boulders. Foraging and sheltering activity in cunner was significantly higher on cages than boulders while territorial behaviour occurred more frequently on boulders. Instances of escape from predators, foraging and sheltering behaviours in scup and tautog were significantly higher on cages than on boulders. Courtship/reproduction, grouping and territoriality were also higher on cages than boulders in tautog. Our results suggest that oyster cages confer ecological services that fulfil the basic biological and functional requirements of reef-oriented fish, and provide habitat attributes afforded by natural rock reefs. AN - noaa:72368 DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/aff2.70159 IS - 1 J2 - Aquaculture, Fish and Fisheries PB - Wiley PY - 2025 T2 - Aquaculture, Fish and Fisheries T2 - Aquaculture, Fish and Fisheries, 6(1) TI - Behaviour of Temperate Reef Fish Species Around Oyster Aquaculture Farms and Natural Rock Reefs VL - 6 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72368 ER -
MEY and MSY in a General Equilibrium

Seung, Chang K.

2026 | Environmental and Resource Economics, 89(1) | pdf

Most studies have focused on the effects of targeting Maximum Economic Yield (MEY) in fisheries using a partial equilibrium (PE) approach, which fails to assess the economy-wide effects and welfare impacts on society by overlooking the interactions between the fishing and non-fishing sectors. To address this limitation, this study develops a bioeco ...

01/23/2026

Title : MEY and MSY in a General Equilibrium Personal Author(s) : Seung, Chang K. Published Date : 2026 Source : Environmental and Resource Economics, 89(1) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-025-01059-w Journal Title : Environmental and Resource Economics Seung, Chang K. (2026). MEY and MSY in a General Equilibrium. 89(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-025-01059-w Seung, Chang K. "MEY and MSY in a General Equilibrium" 89, no. 1 (2026), https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-025-01059-w Seung, Chang K. "MEY and MSY in a General Equilibrium" vol. 89, no. 1, 2026, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-025-01059-w Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Seung, Chang K. AB - Most studies have focused on the effects of targeting Maximum Economic Yield (MEY) in fisheries using a partial equilibrium (PE) approach, which fails to assess the economy-wide effects and welfare impacts on society by overlooking the interactions between the fishing and non-fishing sectors. To address this limitation, this study develops a bioeconomic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for a local fishery in Korea, embedded within a dynamic optimization framework, to calculate the economic and welfare effects of targeting MEY and Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). The CGE model considers varying degrees of the economy’s openness regarding factor mobility and commodity trade while determining the input and output prices endogenously. Next, this study conducts various simulations to assess the model’s sensitivity to different assumptions and bioeconomic parameters. This study reveals, among others, that in the steady state, the MEY is significantly lower in the GE model than in the PE model in most simulations, and that aiming for MEY often leads to a decrease in overall welfare in many simulations, while targeting the MSY typically enhances it. The study highlights the importance of employing a GE approach for accurately assessing the economy-wide effects of achieving the fishery management targets. AN - noaa:72367 DO - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-025-01059-w IS - 1 J2 - Environmental and Resource Economics PB - Springer Science and Business Media LLC PY - 2026 T2 - Environmental and Resource Economics T2 - Environmental and Resource Economics, 89(1) TI - MEY and MSY in a General Equilibrium VL - 89 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72367 ER -
Global ocean indicators: Marking pathways at the science-policy nexus

von Schuckmann, Karina ;

Godoy-Faundez, Alex

2026 | Marine Policy, 184, 106922 | pdf

Ocean knowledge is crucial for shaping policies that enable sustainable development, adaptation, and well-being at all levels, as everyone—either directly or indirectly—depends on the ocean, which today faces escalating threats from climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss, pushing us beyond critical planetary boundaries. Ocean indicators a ...

01/23/2026

Title : Global ocean indicators: Marking pathways at the science-policy nexus Personal Author(s) : von Schuckmann, Karina;Godoy-Faundez, Alex;Garçon, Véronique;Muller-Karger, Frank E.;Evans, Karen;Appeltans, Ward;Bax, Narissa;Benedetti Cecchi, Lisandro;Bernard, Anthony;Bernard, Kim;Byrnes, Jarret;Canonico, Gabrielle;Chapuis, Lucille;Clark, Malcolm R.;Darnaude, Audrey M.;Davies, Claire;Englyst, Pia;Fransson, Agneta;Hallam, Samantha;Heslop, Emma;Holland, Elisabeth;Hood, Maria;Kern, Stefan;Liné, Aurélien;Lara-Lopez, Ana;Loose, Nora;Martín Míguez, Belén;McMahon, Clive R.;Nordlund, Lina Mtwana;Post, Joanna;Speich, Sabrina;Sutton, Adrienne;Tanhua, Toste;Telszewski, Maciej;Poursanidis, Dimitris;Yu, Weidong; Published Date : 2026 Source : Marine Policy, 184, 106922 DOI : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2025.106922 Journal Title : Marine Policy von Schuckmann, Karina et al. (2026). Global ocean indicators: Marking pathways at the science-policy nexus. 184https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2025.106922 von Schuckmann, Karina et al. "Global ocean indicators: Marking pathways at the science-policy nexus" 184 (2026), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2025.106922 von Schuckmann, Karina et al. "Global ocean indicators: Marking pathways at the science-policy nexus" vol. 184, 2026, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2025.106922 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - von Schuckmann, Karina AU - Godoy-Faundez, Alex AU - Garçon, Véronique AU - Muller-Karger, Frank E. AU - Evans, Karen AU - Appeltans, Ward AU - Bax, Narissa AU - Benedetti Cecchi, Lisandro AU - Bernard, Anthony AU - Bernard, Kim AU - Byrnes, Jarret AU - Canonico, Gabrielle AU - Chapuis, Lucille AU - Clark, Malcolm R. AU - Darnaude, Audrey M. AU - Davies, Claire AU - Englyst, Pia AU - Fransson, Agneta AU - Hallam, Samantha AU - Heslop, Emma AU - Holland, Elisabeth AU - Hood, Maria AU - Kern, Stefan AU - Liné, Aurélien AU - Lara-Lopez, Ana AU - Loose, Nora AU - Martín Míguez, Belén AU - McMahon, Clive R. AU - Nordlund, Lina Mtwana AU - Post, Joanna AU - Speich, Sabrina AU - Sutton, Adrienne AU - Tanhua, Toste AU - Telszewski, Maciej AU - Poursanidis, Dimitris AU - Yu, Weidong AB - Ocean knowledge is crucial for shaping policies that enable sustainable development, adaptation, and well-being at all levels, as everyone—either directly or indirectly—depends on the ocean, which today faces escalating threats from climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss, pushing us beyond critical planetary boundaries. Ocean indicators are crucial for translating ocean science and data into practical metrics, guidance, and tools informing on the state and health of the ocean that can be directly applied by policymakers, practitioners, and the public. Despite their critical importance, ocean indicators trail behind those for continental areas, limiting effective monitoring and policy integration. Developing reliable, comparable, and regularly updated ocean indicators, backed by a unified international framework, is essential for delivering coherent, actionable insights that can guide global goals and protect the ocean's future. This paper establishes a scientific foundation for ocean indicators through international and multidisciplinary collaboration, presenting defined criteria and a set of pilot indicators for the ocean’s physical, biogeochemical, biodiversity, and ecosystem aspects. The proposed framework offers a solid foundation for generating indicators that not only track the ocean state but also provide outputs for application in informing policy and decision-making. AN - noaa:72366 DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2025.106922 J2 - Marine Policy PB - Elsevier BV PY - 2026 T2 - Marine Policy T2 - Marine Policy, 184, 106922 TI - Global ocean indicators: Marking pathways at the science-policy nexus VL - 184 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72366 ER -
Impacts of Atmospheric Near‐Surface Stability on the Arctic Summer Air‐Sea Heat Budget Using Uncrewed Surface Vehicles

Chen, Yanxu

;

Yu, Lisan

2025 | PMEL contribution; no. 5674 | pdf

The atmospheric marine boundary layer (AMBL) plays a crucial role in regulating air‐sea interactions and influencing the climate system, particularly in the Arctic due to its high sensitivity to global warming. This study utilizes five years (2018–2022) of saildrone data from the Bering‐Chukchi‐Beaufort Seas to analyze atmospheric near‐surface stab ...

01/23/2026

Title : Impacts of Atmospheric Near‐Surface Stability on the Arctic Summer Air‐Sea Heat Budget Using Uncrewed Surface Vehicles Personal Author(s) : Chen, Yanxu;Yu, Lisan;Zhang, Chidong; Published Date : 2025 Series : PMEL contribution; no. 5674 Source : Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 130(7) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022313 Journal Title : Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Chen, Yanxu et al. (2025). Impacts of Atmospheric Near‐Surface Stability on the Arctic Summer Air‐Sea Heat Budget Using Uncrewed Surface Vehicles. 130(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022313 Chen, Yanxu and Yu, Lisan and Zhang, Chidong "Impacts of Atmospheric Near‐Surface Stability on the Arctic Summer Air‐Sea Heat Budget Using Uncrewed Surface Vehicles" 130, no. 7 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022313 Chen, Yanxu et al. "Impacts of Atmospheric Near‐Surface Stability on the Arctic Summer Air‐Sea Heat Budget Using Uncrewed Surface Vehicles" vol. 130, no. 7, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022313 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Chen, Yanxu AU - Yu, Lisan AU - Zhang, Chidong AB - The atmospheric marine boundary layer (AMBL) plays a crucial role in regulating air‐sea interactions and influencing the climate system, particularly in the Arctic due to its high sensitivity to global warming. This study utilizes five years (2018–2022) of saildrone data from the Bering‐Chukchi‐Beaufort Seas to analyze atmospheric near‐surface stability and air‐sea turbulent heat fluxes during the Arctic summer. By applying Monin‐Obukhov similarity theory, we investigate the temporal variability and mechanisms that influence AMBL stability. Our findings reveal two distinct regimes of stable and unstable conditions in two contrasting years of 2020 and 2022. In 2020, cold air advection driven by northerly winds consistently destabilizes the AMBL, leading to increased oceanic heat loss. In 2022, however, southerly winds and warm air advection stabilize the AMBL, suppressing air‐sea heat exchanges. The temporal variation of turbulent heat fluxes is primarily driven by air‐sea temperature differences, with the magnitude of wind speed and its temperature covariance serving as secondary factors. We also show the importance of skin temperature measurements from saildrones for improving estimates of turbulent heat fluxes. These insights enhance our understanding of Arctic air‐sea interactions and inform climate models, underscoring the need for high‐resolution observations in polar regions and the improvement of bulk flux parameterization for stable AMBL. AN - noaa:72365 DO - https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022313 IS - 7 J2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans PB - American Geophysical Union (AGU) PY - 2025 T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 130(7) T3 - PMEL contribution; no. 5674 TI - Impacts of Atmospheric Near‐Surface Stability on the Arctic Summer Air‐Sea Heat Budget Using Uncrewed Surface Vehicles VL - 130 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72365 ER -
Evolution and prediction of the La Niña conditions in 2024/25

Tan, Wei

;

Hu, Zeng-Zhen

2025 | PMEL contribution; no. 5760 | pdf

Skillful El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is one of the most important problems in climate science due to its substantial global impacts. There have been many successful examples of predicting ENSO using dynamical climate models since the mid-1980s. It was therefore unexpected that many operational climate models significantly overest ...

01/23/2026

Title : Evolution and prediction of the La Niña conditions in 2024/25 Personal Author(s) : Tan, Wei;Hu, Zeng-Zhen;Liu, Yunyun;McPhaden, Michael J; Published Date : 2025 Series : PMEL contribution; no. 5760 Source : Environmental Research Communications, 7(12), 125031 DOI : https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae2e97 Journal Title : Environmental Research Communications Tan, Wei et al. (2025). Evolution and prediction of the La Niña conditions in 2024/25. 7(12). https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae2e97 Tan, Wei et al. "Evolution and prediction of the La Niña conditions in 2024/25" 7, no. 12 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae2e97 Tan, Wei et al. "Evolution and prediction of the La Niña conditions in 2024/25" vol. 7, no. 12, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae2e97 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Tan, Wei AU - Hu, Zeng-Zhen AU - Liu, Yunyun AU - McPhaden, Michael J AB - Skillful El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is one of the most important problems in climate science due to its substantial global impacts. There have been many successful examples of predicting ENSO using dynamical climate models since the mid-1980s. It was therefore unexpected that many operational climate models significantly overestimated the likelihood of La Niña conditions in 2024. In this report, we examine the physical processes associated with the arrested development of La Niña conditions in 2024/25, and the possible reasons for overestimated predictions of its strength. Despite favorable subsurface cooling conditions following a strong 2023/24 El Niño, we argue that arrested development of La Niña conditions in 2024/25 resulted from weak episodic easterly wind anomalies and associated weak upwelling Kelvin wave activity, which failed to shoal the thermocline sufficiently to initiate basin-wide air-sea coupling. Furthermore, we find that weaker Kelvin wave activity and ENSO amplitude reduction were linked to the ENSO regime shift with strengthened mean zonal sea surface temperature contrast and enhanced mean trade winds in the tropical Pacific around 2000. Model limitations in capturing atmospheric variability and interdecadal shift contributed to the overestimated strength of the La Niña predictions in 2024/25, underscoring the importance of properly simulating atmospheric variability and the interdecadal regime shift in dynamical models used for predicting ENSO. AN - noaa:72364 DO - https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae2e97 IS - 12 J2 - Environmental Research Communications PB - IOP Publishing PY - 2025 T2 - Environmental Research Communications T2 - Environmental Research Communications, 7(12), 125031 T3 - PMEL contribution; no. 5760 TI - Evolution and prediction of the La Niña conditions in 2024/25 VL - 7 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72364 ER -
Replacement per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS)-free aqueous film-forming foams impact growth more than a PFAS-containing product in the hard clam, Mercenaria mercenaria

Stewart, Jonathan A

;

Chung, Katy W

2025 | Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (2025) | pdf

Aqueous film-forming foams (AFFFs) are widely used fire suppression products that have been identified as a direct source of environmental per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance exposure has demonstrated chronic and sublethal effects on biota. Ongoing efforts aim to reduce and, ideally, eliminate PFAS use in ...

01/23/2026

Title : Replacement per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS)-free aqueous film-forming foams impact growth more than a PFAS-containing product in the hard clam, Mercenaria mercenaria Personal Author(s) : Stewart, Jonathan A;Chung, Katy W;Key, Peter B;Wirth, Edward F;DeLorenzo, Marie E; Published Date : 2025 Source : Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (2025) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1093/etojnl/vgaf287 Journal Title : Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Stewart, Jonathan A et al. (2025). Replacement per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS)-free aqueous film-forming foams impact growth more than a PFAS-containing product in the hard clam, Mercenaria mercenaria. https://doi.org/10.1093/etojnl/vgaf287 Stewart, Jonathan A et al. "Replacement per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS)-free aqueous film-forming foams impact growth more than a PFAS-containing product in the hard clam, Mercenaria mercenaria" (2025), https://doi.org/10.1093/etojnl/vgaf287 Stewart, Jonathan A et al. "Replacement per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS)-free aqueous film-forming foams impact growth more than a PFAS-containing product in the hard clam, Mercenaria mercenaria" , 2025, https://doi.org/10.1093/etojnl/vgaf287 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Stewart, Jonathan A AU - Chung, Katy W AU - Key, Peter B AU - Wirth, Edward F AU - DeLorenzo, Marie E AB - Aqueous film-forming foams (AFFFs) are widely used fire suppression products that have been identified as a direct source of environmental per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance exposure has demonstrated chronic and sublethal effects on biota. Ongoing efforts aim to reduce and, ideally, eliminate PFAS use in AFFF products. However, there is little known about the potential toxic effects of the new PFAS-free AFFFs, specifically on benthic organisms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of seven AFFFs on growth in the hard clam, Mercenaria mercenaria, over a 21-day exposure period with juvenile animals. Additionally, AFFF effects are reported from algal toxicity assays and a feeding study. Five of the PFAS-free AFFFs negatively impacted growth over the exposure period, while one PFAS-free AFFF and the reference PFAS-containing AFFF had no observable effect. Median effect concentrations (EC50) for shell growth ranged from 5.81 mg/L to >100 mg/L. Clam dry and wet weights also decreased with increasing exposure concentration (p < 0.05). Algal growth was impacted over a 96-hr exposure. Impacts were observed to final standing biomass and overall growth rates at the highest exposure concentrations. However, complete lethality was only observed for one PFAS-free product, suggesting lack of food availability was likely not the primary driver of growth inhibition for all products. Net particle clearance rates in AFFF-exposed clams were not found to be impacted, suggesting there was no obvious AFFF influence on organismal feeding ability. The presented results identify chronic effects of exposure to these AFFFs in this economically and ecologically important bivalve species and are expected to inform decisions regarding PFAS replacement AFFF products. AN - noaa:72363 DO - https://doi.org/10.1093/etojnl/vgaf287 J2 - Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry PB - Oxford University Press (OUP) PY - 2025 T2 - Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry T2 - Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (2025) TI - Replacement per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS)-free aqueous film-forming foams impact growth more than a PFAS-containing product in the hard clam, Mercenaria mercenaria UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72363 ER -
Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

Huo, Yiling

;

Zhang, Rudong

2025 | PMEL contribution; no. 5722 | pdf

Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, se ...

01/23/2026

Title : Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface Personal Author(s) : Huo, Yiling;Zhang, Rudong;Wang, Hailong;Sweeney, Aodhan;Fu, Qiang;Rasch, Philip J.;Zou, Yufei;Wang, Muyin;Ma, Weiming; Published Date : 2025 Series : PMEL contribution; no. 5722 Source : Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02548-y Journal Title : Communications Earth & Environment Huo, Yiling et al. (2025). Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface. 6(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02548-y Huo, Yiling et al. "Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface" 6, no. 1 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02548-y Huo, Yiling et al. "Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface" vol. 6, no. 1, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02548-y Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Huo, Yiling AU - Zhang, Rudong AU - Wang, Hailong AU - Sweeney, Aodhan AU - Fu, Qiang AU - Rasch, Philip J. AU - Zou, Yufei AU - Wang, Muyin AU - Ma, Weiming AB - Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming. AN - noaa:72361 DO - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02548-y IS - 1 J2 - Communications Earth & Environment PB - Springer Science and Business Media LLC PY - 2025 T2 - Communications Earth & Environment T2 - Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1) T3 - PMEL contribution; no. 5722 TI - Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface VL - 6 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72361 ER -
Ocean conditions drive interannual variability in juvenile albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) muscle energy content in the California Current System

Nickels, Catherine F.

;

Muhling, Barbara A.

2025 | PLOS One, 20(9), e0331436 | pdf

Juvenile albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) undertake long migrations across the North Pacific that they fuel by feeding in the California Current System (CCS) during the summer. The CCS is a highly dynamic system, which can lead to differences in foraging success that may be indicated by differences in body condition. Assessed through stomach conten ...

01/23/2026

Title : Ocean conditions drive interannual variability in juvenile albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) muscle energy content in the California Current System Personal Author(s) : Nickels, Catherine F.;Muhling, Barbara A.;Portner, Elan J.;Snodgrass, Owyn E.;Dewar, Heidi; Published Date : 2025 Source : PLOS One, 20(9), e0331436 DOI : https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0331436 Journal Title : PLOS One Nickels, Catherine F. et al. (2025). Ocean conditions drive interannual variability in juvenile albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) muscle energy content in the California Current System. 20(9). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0331436 Nickels, Catherine F. et al. "Ocean conditions drive interannual variability in juvenile albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) muscle energy content in the California Current System" 20, no. 9 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0331436 Nickels, Catherine F. et al. "Ocean conditions drive interannual variability in juvenile albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) muscle energy content in the California Current System" vol. 20, no. 9, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0331436 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Nickels, Catherine F. AU - Muhling, Barbara A. AU - Portner, Elan J. AU - Snodgrass, Owyn E. AU - Dewar, Heidi AB - Juvenile albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) undertake long migrations across the North Pacific that they fuel by feeding in the California Current System (CCS) during the summer. The CCS is a highly dynamic system, which can lead to differences in foraging success that may be indicated by differences in body condition. Assessed through stomach content analysis, albacore diet composition by mean proportional weight showed high interannual variability including some years characterized by large increases in consumption of anchovy (2011 = 81%, 2017, 2022) and sardine (Sardinops sagax, 2022). We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to investigate the impact of albacore length, month of collection, diet composition, and environmental conditions on albacore muscle energy content. Two proxies for muscle energy content, the carbon to nitrogen ratio (C:N) and ash free dry weight (AFDW), were positively but weakly correlated. Albacore C:N increased with month, body size, and upwelling in the first half of the year, and decreased with increasing sea surface temperature. The mean energy density of prey and chlorophyll-a concentration were not important predictors of muscle energy content, indicating that albacore may be resilient to changes in prey composition and productivity. Sea surface temperature was the most important predictor of muscle energy content, which suggests that marine heat waves and projected future warming in the CCS may have detrimental effects on albacore body condition or the value of the CCS as a foraging habitat. AN - noaa:72360 DO - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0331436 IS - 9 J2 - PLOS One PB - Public Library of Science (PLoS) PY - 2025 T2 - PLOS One T2 - PLOS One, 20(9), e0331436 TI - Ocean conditions drive interannual variability in juvenile albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) muscle energy content in the California Current System VL - 20 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72360 ER -
Behavioral responses of goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) to simulated military sonar

Southall, B. L. ;

Schick, R. S.

2026 | Ecosphere, 17(1) | pdf

We report direct measurements of changes in diving and movement behavior for 53 goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) in relation to experimentally controlled mid-frequency (3–4 kHz) active sonar (MFAS) signals. These signals simulate powerful Navy sources that have been associated with multiple mortal stranding events for this species. We depl ...

01/23/2026

Title : Behavioral responses of goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) to simulated military sonar Personal Author(s) : Southall, B. L.;Schick, R. S.;Cioffi, W. R.;DeRuiter, S. L.;Foley, H. J.;Harris, C. M.;Harshbarger, A. E.;Joseph, J. E.;Margolina, T.;Nowacek, D. P.;Quick, N. J.;Swaim, Z. T.;Thomas, L.;Waples, D. M.;Webster, D. L.;Wisse, J. H.;Read, A. J.; Published Date : 2026 Source : Ecosphere, 17(1) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70501 Journal Title : Ecosphere Southall, B. L. et al. (2026). Behavioral responses of goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) to simulated military sonar. 17(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70501 Southall, B. L. et al. "Behavioral responses of goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) to simulated military sonar" 17, no. 1 (2026), https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70501 Southall, B. L. et al. "Behavioral responses of goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) to simulated military sonar" vol. 17, no. 1, 2026, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70501 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Southall, B. L. AU - Schick, R. S. AU - Cioffi, W. R. AU - DeRuiter, S. L. AU - Foley, H. J. AU - Harris, C. M. AU - Harshbarger, A. E. AU - Joseph, J. E. AU - Margolina, T. AU - Nowacek, D. P. AU - Quick, N. J. AU - Swaim, Z. T. AU - Thomas, L. AU - Waples, D. M. AU - Webster, D. L. AU - Wisse, J. H. AU - Read, A. J. AB - We report direct measurements of changes in diving and movement behavior for 53 goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) in relation to experimentally controlled mid-frequency (3–4 kHz) active sonar (MFAS) signals. These signals simulate powerful Navy sources that have been associated with multiple mortal stranding events for this species. We deployed a multi-scale combination of tags to monitor individual whales, including 50 long-duration (weeks), coarse-resolution satellite-transmitting tags and 3 short-duration (hours), high-resolution archival depth, orientation, and acoustic tags. We evaluated behavioral responses during 13 experimental trials (9 MFAS; 4 no-MFAS controls), resulting in 72 exposure events; some individuals were exposed in multiple trials. Whales were exposed at known and modeled horizontal ranges from ~2 to >200 km and from below ambient noise levels to received levels (RLs) up to ~142 dB re: 1μPa (root-mean-square [RMS]). We investigated changes in diving and movement behavior separately, with a suite of metrics, descriptive evaluations, and statistical tests. We observed similar patterns and probabilities of behavioral changes for control trials and the lowest RL conditions (<100 dB). Above 100 dB RLs, increasingly prevalent and consistent responses occurred, including extended deep dives, prolonged periods between deep dives, directed spatial movement away from the source, and cessation of echolocation. Aspects of these cryptic responses typically persisted for hours following exposure but did not result in broad-scale habitat abandonment. Our study builds upon experimental and observational studies conducted on sonar testing ranges and expands our understanding of the response of this species to MFAS in a region where operational sonar use occurs far less commonly than on Navy testing ranges. These data are directly applicable in the conservation and effective management of this sensitive, protected species. AN - noaa:72359 DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70501 IS - 1 J2 - Ecosphere PB - Wiley PY - 2026 T2 - Ecosphere T2 - Ecosphere, 17(1) TI - Behavioral responses of goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) to simulated military sonar VL - 17 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72359 ER -
Probabilistic Forecasts of Fish Abundances With Spatio‐Temporal Models to Support Fisheries Management

Grüss, Arnaud

;

Allyn, Andrew J.

2025 | Fish and Fisheries, 26(6), 1180-1197 | pdf

Spatio-temporal species distribution models (SDMs) are valuable tools to support fisheries management, as they account for long-term and time-varying unmeasured variation (spatial and spatio-temporal variation), thereby providing more accurate and statistically efficient estimates than simpler SDMs. However, the application of spatio-temporal SDMs ...

01/23/2026

Title : Probabilistic Forecasts of Fish Abundances With Spatio‐Temporal Models to Support Fisheries Management Personal Author(s) : Grüss, Arnaud;Allyn, Andrew J.;Thorson, James T.;Mills, Katherine E.;Yasumiishi, Ellen;Pinkerton, Matthew H.;Parsons, Darren M.;Sibanda, Nokuthaba; Published Date : 2025 Source : Fish and Fisheries, 26(6), 1180-1197 DOI : https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70025 Journal Title : Fish and Fisheries Grüss, Arnaud et al. (2025). Probabilistic Forecasts of Fish Abundances With Spatio‐Temporal Models to Support Fisheries Management. 26(6). https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70025 Grüss, Arnaud et al. "Probabilistic Forecasts of Fish Abundances With Spatio‐Temporal Models to Support Fisheries Management" 26, no. 6 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70025 Grüss, Arnaud et al. "Probabilistic Forecasts of Fish Abundances With Spatio‐Temporal Models to Support Fisheries Management" vol. 26, no. 6, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70025 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Grüss, Arnaud AU - Allyn, Andrew J. AU - Thorson, James T. AU - Mills, Katherine E. AU - Yasumiishi, Ellen AU - Pinkerton, Matthew H. AU - Parsons, Darren M. AU - Sibanda, Nokuthaba AB - Spatio-temporal species distribution models (SDMs) are valuable tools to support fisheries management, as they account for long-term and time-varying unmeasured variation (spatial and spatio-temporal variation), thereby providing more accurate and statistically efficient estimates than simpler SDMs. However, the application of spatio-temporal SDMs for probabilistic forecasts of fish abundances has been slowed by two main challenges. First, guidance surrounding the decisions needed to generate forecasts with a spatio-temporal SDM is lacking. Second, there is limited functionality to efficiently produce forecasts with spatio-temporal SDMs while also propagating uncertainty about initial conditions and process errors. We developed new approaches to forecasting with spatio-temporal SDMs, which allow for efficient predictions with spatio-temporal SDMs and quantifying the influence of different model components on prediction uncertainty. We illustrate our approaches with two contrasting applications: west coast New Zealand snapper (Chrysophrys auratus), using fisheries data and examining retrospective forecasts; and Bering Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus), employing fisheries-independent data and generating forecasts to 2100. The applications showed that spatio-temporal variation should be included in spatio-temporal SDMs to produce forecasts, to explain a much larger fraction of the variability in the data, thereby providing more accurate reconstructions of population trends and better characterising uncertainty around forecasts. Our results also highlight that forecasts with spatio-temporal SDMs work best in data-rich situations, particularly if the time series of fish data is relatively long. Our approaches can help unlock the use of spatio-temporal SDMs to make both near-term and long-term forecasts, providing better information to fisheries managers and informing future data collection. AN - noaa:72358 DO - https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70025 IS - 6 J2 - Fish and Fisheries PB - Wiley PY - 2025 T2 - Fish and Fisheries T2 - Fish and Fisheries, 26(6), 1180-1197 TI - Probabilistic Forecasts of Fish Abundances With Spatio‐Temporal Models to Support Fisheries Management VL - 26 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72358 ER -
Estimating scale‐dependent covariate responses using two‐dimensional diffusion derived from the stochastic partial differential equation method

Lindmark, Max

;

Anderson, Sean C.

2025 | Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 17(1), 207-218 | pdf

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to standardize spatially unbalanced data, project climate impacts and identify habitat for conservation. SDMs typically estimate the impact of local environmental conditions by estimating a dome-shaped or non-parametric ‘environmental response function’. However, ecological responses often integrat ...

01/23/2026

Title : Estimating scale‐dependent covariate responses using two‐dimensional diffusion derived from the stochastic partial differential equation method Personal Author(s) : Lindmark, Max;Anderson, Sean C.;Thorson, James T.; Published Date : 2025 Source : Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 17(1), 207-218 DOI : https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.70177 Journal Title : Methods in Ecology and Evolution Lindmark, Max et al. (2025). Estimating scale‐dependent covariate responses using two‐dimensional diffusion derived from the stochastic partial differential equation method. 17(1). https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.70177 Lindmark, Max and Anderson, Sean C. and Thorson, James T. "Estimating scale‐dependent covariate responses using two‐dimensional diffusion derived from the stochastic partial differential equation method" 17, no. 1 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.70177 Lindmark, Max et al. "Estimating scale‐dependent covariate responses using two‐dimensional diffusion derived from the stochastic partial differential equation method" vol. 17, no. 1, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.70177 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Lindmark, Max AU - Anderson, Sean C. AU - Thorson, James T. AB - Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to standardize spatially unbalanced data, project climate impacts and identify habitat for conservation. SDMs typically estimate the impact of local environmental conditions by estimating a dome-shaped or non-parametric ‘environmental response function’. However, ecological responses often integrate across local habitat conditions, such that species density depends on habitat at the location of sampling but also at nearby locations. AN - noaa:72357 DO - https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.70177 IS - 1 J2 - Methods in Ecology and Evolution PB - Wiley PY - 2025 T2 - Methods in Ecology and Evolution T2 - Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 17(1), 207-218 TI - Estimating scale‐dependent covariate responses using two‐dimensional diffusion derived from the stochastic partial differential equation method VL - 17 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72357 ER -
Transient shifts in Bering Sea shelf phytoplankton size structure in response to wind‐induced mixing

Nielsen, Jens M.

;

Lomas, Michael W.

2025 | PMEL contribution; no. 5565 | pdf

Phytoplankton community size structure is a key attribute that influences pelagic trophic energy transfer and the vertical flux of organic matter to benthic food webs. To capture the ephemeral scale of phytoplankton population size spectra we developed an approach, combining long-term survey datasets, machine learning modeling and 3 yr of high-reso ...

01/23/2026

Title : Transient shifts in Bering Sea shelf phytoplankton size structure in response to wind‐induced mixing Personal Author(s) : Nielsen, Jens M.;Lomas, Michael W.;Eisner, Lisa B.;Pelland, Noel A.;Hospital, Sun B.;Lange, Priscila K.;Mordy, Calvin W.;Gann, Jeanette C.;Stabeno, Phyllis J.;Tabisola, Heather M.;Sullivan, Margaret E.; Published Date : 2025 Series : PMEL contribution; no. 5565 Source : Limnology and Oceanography Letters, 11(1) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70084 Journal Title : Limnology and Oceanography Letters Nielsen, Jens M. et al. (2025). Transient shifts in Bering Sea shelf phytoplankton size structure in response to wind‐induced mixing. 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70084 Nielsen, Jens M. et al. "Transient shifts in Bering Sea shelf phytoplankton size structure in response to wind‐induced mixing" 11, no. 1 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70084 Nielsen, Jens M. et al. "Transient shifts in Bering Sea shelf phytoplankton size structure in response to wind‐induced mixing" vol. 11, no. 1, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70084 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Nielsen, Jens M. AU - Lomas, Michael W. AU - Eisner, Lisa B. AU - Pelland, Noel A. AU - Hospital, Sun B. AU - Lange, Priscila K. AU - Mordy, Calvin W. AU - Gann, Jeanette C. AU - Stabeno, Phyllis J. AU - Tabisola, Heather M. AU - Sullivan, Margaret E. AB - Phytoplankton community size structure is a key attribute that influences pelagic trophic energy transfer and the vertical flux of organic matter to benthic food webs. To capture the ephemeral scale of phytoplankton population size spectra we developed an approach, combining long-term survey datasets, machine learning modeling and 3 yr of high-resolution moored vertical profiler measurements. We show that larger phytoplankton (> 10 μm cell diameter) dominated the spring bloom throughout the water column, however, after the bloom, smaller cells (< 10 μm cell diameter) comprise 70–80% of the phytoplankton community in the surface mixed layer. In contrast, larger cells are predominantly present at depths near the mixed layer interface. However, intermittent wind mixing events results in enhanced pulses of net community production and larger phytoplankton in the upper ocean. Our findings highlight how transient seasonal and vertical shifts in phytoplankton size structure occur in response to variable oceanographic conditions. AN - noaa:72356 DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70084 IS - 1 J2 - Limnology and Oceanography Letters PB - Wiley PY - 2025 T2 - Limnology and Oceanography Letters T2 - Limnology and Oceanography Letters, 11(1) T3 - PMEL contribution; no. 5565 TI - Transient shifts in Bering Sea shelf phytoplankton size structure in response to wind‐induced mixing VL - 11 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72356 ER -
Biophysical Interactions Stimulate the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the North Pacific Subtropical Recirculation Gyre

Sukigara, Chiho

;

Inoue, Ryuichiro

2025 | PMEL contribution; no. 5281 | pdf

Although previous studies have found that restratification caused by mixed layer eddies induces early spring blooms near fronts under the nutrient‐replete conditions of the subarctic ocean, the genesis of the spring bloom in nutrient‐depleted subtropical regions has been unclear. To investigate the biogeochemical responses to changes of ocean dynam ...

01/23/2026

Title : Biophysical Interactions Stimulate the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the North Pacific Subtropical Recirculation Gyre Personal Author(s) : Sukigara, Chiho;Inoue, Ryuichiro;Sato, Kanako;Mino, Yoshihisa;Nagai, Takeyoshi;Fassbender, Andrea J.;Takeshita, Yuichiro;Oka, Eitarou; Published Date : 2025 Series : PMEL contribution; no. 5281 Source : Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 130(7) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022718 Journal Title : Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Sukigara, Chiho et al. (2025). Biophysical Interactions Stimulate the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the North Pacific Subtropical Recirculation Gyre. 130(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022718 Sukigara, Chiho et al. "Biophysical Interactions Stimulate the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the North Pacific Subtropical Recirculation Gyre" 130, no. 7 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022718 Sukigara, Chiho et al. "Biophysical Interactions Stimulate the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the North Pacific Subtropical Recirculation Gyre" vol. 130, no. 7, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022718 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Sukigara, Chiho AU - Inoue, Ryuichiro AU - Sato, Kanako AU - Mino, Yoshihisa AU - Nagai, Takeyoshi AU - Fassbender, Andrea J. AU - Takeshita, Yuichiro AU - Oka, Eitarou AB - Although previous studies have found that restratification caused by mixed layer eddies induces early spring blooms near fronts under the nutrient‐replete conditions of the subarctic ocean, the genesis of the spring bloom in nutrient‐depleted subtropical regions has been unclear. To investigate the biogeochemical responses to changes of ocean dynamics during the spring transition season in the oligotrophic subtropical gyre of the western North Pacific from January to April of 2018, we used two Biogeochemical Argo floats equipped with oxygen, fluorescence (to estimate chlorophyll concentrations), backscatter (to estimate the concentration of particulate organic carbon [POC]), and nitrate and nitrite sensors to collect daily vertical profiles of the water column from a depth of 2,000 m to the sea surface. During February and March, as the mixed layer gradually deepened, there were slight increases of the concentrations of chlorophyll and POC after temporary restratification. At the end of March, the depth of the mixed layer reached a maximum, and the water column rapidly stratified. Chlorophyll concentrations increased significantly in the surface water, and low‐salinity water with high concentrations of nutrients and low concentrations of oxygen and POC apparently entered the subsurface layer from greater depths. We hypothesize that this vertical structure was created by ageostrophic secondary circulation in frontal areas that enhanced the upward transport of nutrients into the euphotic zone and resulted in rapid phytoplankton growth in the surface layer as the light environment improved. AN - noaa:72355 DO - https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022718 IS - 7 J2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans PB - American Geophysical Union (AGU) PY - 2025 T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 130(7) T3 - PMEL contribution; no. 5281 TI - Biophysical Interactions Stimulate the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in the North Pacific Subtropical Recirculation Gyre VL - 130 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72355 ER -
Observational ozone datasets over the global oceans and polar regions (version 2024)

Kanaya, Yugo ;

Sommariva, Roberto

2025 | Earth System Science Data, 17(9), 4901-4932 | pdf

Studying tropospheric ozone over the remote areas of the planet, such as the open oceans and the polar regions, is crucial to understand the role of ozone as a global climate forcer and regulator of atmospheric oxidative capacity. A focus on the pristine oceanic and polar regions complements the available land-based datasets and provides insights i ...

01/23/2026

Title : Observational ozone datasets over the global oceans and polar regions (version 2024) Personal Author(s) : Kanaya, Yugo;Sommariva, Roberto;Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso;Mazzeo, Andrea;Koenig, Theodore K.;Kawana, Kaori;Johnson, James E.;Colomb, Aurélie;Tulet, Pierre;Molloy, Suzie;Galbally, Ian E.;Volkamer, Rainer;Mahajan, Anoop;Halfacre, John W.;Shepson, Paul B.;Schmale, Julia;Angot, Hélène;Blomquist, Byron;Shupe, Matthew D.;Helmig, Detlev;Gil, Junsu;Lee, Meehye;Coburn, Sean C.;Ortega, Ivan;Chen, Gao;Lee, James;Aikin, Kenneth C.;Parrish, David D.;Holloway, John S.;Ryerson, Thomas B.;Pollack, Ilana B.;Williams, Eric J.;Lerner, Brian M.;Weinheimer, Andrew J.;Campos, Teresa;Flocke, Frank M.;Spackman, J. Ryan;Bourgeois, Ilann;Peischl, Jeff;Thompson, Chelsea R.;Staebler, Ralf M.;Aliabadi, Amir A.;Gong, Wanmin;Van Malderen, Roeland;Thompson, Anne M.;Stauffer, Ryan M.;Kollonige, Debra E.;Gómez Martin, Juan Carlos;Fujiwara, Masatomo;Read, Katie;Rowlinson, Matthew;Sato, Keiichi;Kurokawa, Junichi;Iwamoto, Yoko;Taketani, Fumikazu;Takashima, Hisahiro;Navarro-Comas, Mónica;Panagi, Marios;Schultz, Martin G.; Published Date : 2025 Source : Earth System Science Data, 17(9), 4901-4932 DOI : https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4901-2025 Journal Title : Earth System Science Data Kanaya, Yugo et al. (2025). Observational ozone datasets over the global oceans and polar regions (version 2024). 17(9). https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4901-2025 Kanaya, Yugo et al. "Observational ozone datasets over the global oceans and polar regions (version 2024)" 17, no. 9 (2025), https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4901-2025 Kanaya, Yugo et al. "Observational ozone datasets over the global oceans and polar regions (version 2024)" vol. 17, no. 9, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4901-2025 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Kanaya, Yugo AU - Sommariva, Roberto AU - Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso AU - Mazzeo, Andrea AU - Koenig, Theodore K. AU - Kawana, Kaori AU - Johnson, James E. AU - Colomb, Aurélie AU - Tulet, Pierre AU - Molloy, Suzie AU - Galbally, Ian E. AU - Volkamer, Rainer AU - Mahajan, Anoop AU - Halfacre, John W. AU - Shepson, Paul B. AU - Schmale, Julia AU - Angot, Hélène AU - Blomquist, Byron AU - Shupe, Matthew D. AU - Helmig, Detlev AU - Gil, Junsu AU - Lee, Meehye AU - Coburn, Sean C. AU - Ortega, Ivan AU - Chen, Gao AU - Lee, James AU - Aikin, Kenneth C. AU - Parrish, David D. AU - Holloway, John S. AU - Ryerson, Thomas B. AU - Pollack, Ilana B. AU - Williams, Eric J. AU - Lerner, Brian M. AU - Weinheimer, Andrew J. AU - Campos, Teresa AU - Flocke, Frank M. AU - Spackman, J. Ryan AU - Bourgeois, Ilann AU - Peischl, Jeff AU - Thompson, Chelsea R. AU - Staebler, Ralf M. AU - Aliabadi, Amir A. AU - Gong, Wanmin AU - Van Malderen, Roeland AU - Thompson, Anne M. AU - Stauffer, Ryan M. AU - Kollonige, Debra E. AU - Gómez Martin, Juan Carlos AU - Fujiwara, Masatomo AU - Read, Katie AU - Rowlinson, Matthew AU - Sato, Keiichi AU - Kurokawa, Junichi AU - Iwamoto, Yoko AU - Taketani, Fumikazu AU - Takashima, Hisahiro AU - Navarro-Comas, Mónica AU - Panagi, Marios AU - Schultz, Martin G. AB - Studying tropospheric ozone over the remote areas of the planet, such as the open oceans and the polar regions, is crucial to understand the role of ozone as a global climate forcer and regulator of atmospheric oxidative capacity. A focus on the pristine oceanic and polar regions complements the available land-based datasets and provides insights into key photochemical and depositional loss processes that control the concentrations and spatiotemporal variability in ozone as well as the physicochemical mechanisms driving these patterns. However, an assessment of the role of ozone over the oceanic and polar regions has been hampered by a lack of comprehensive observational datasets. Here, we present the first comprehensive collection of ozone data over the oceans and the polar regions. The overall dataset consists of 77 ship cruises/buoy-based observations and 48 aircraft-based campaigns. The dataset, consisting of more than 630 000 independent ozone measurement data points covering the period from 1977 to 2022 and an altitude range from the surface to 5000 m (with a focus on the lowest 2000 m), allows systematic analyses of the spatiotemporal distribution and long-term trends over the 11 defined ocean/polar regions. The datasets from ships, buoys, and aircraft are complemented by ozonesonde data from 29 launch sites or field campaigns and by 21 non-polar and 17 polar ground-based station datasets. The datasets contain information on how long the observed air masses were isolated from land, as estimated by backward trajectories from the individual observation points. To extract observations representative of oceanic conditions, we recommend using a subset of the data with an isolation time of 72 h or longer, from the analysis with coincident radon observations. These filtered oceanic and polar data showed typically flat diurnal cycles at high latitudes, whereas daytime decreases in ozone (11 %–16 %) were observed at lower latitudes. The ship/buoy- and aircraft-based datasets presented here will supplement the land-based ones in the TOAR-II (Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report Phase II) database to provide a fully global assessment of tropospheric ozone. The described dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.17596/0004044 (Kanaya et al., 2025). AN - noaa:72354 DO - https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4901-2025 IS - 9 J2 - Earth System Science Data PB - Copernicus GmbH PY - 2025 T2 - Earth System Science Data T2 - Earth System Science Data, 17(9), 4901-4932 TI - Observational ozone datasets over the global oceans and polar regions (version 2024) VL - 17 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72354 ER -
Novel field trial for ocean alkalinity enhancement using electrochemically derived aqueous alkalinity

Savoie, Allison M. ;

Ringham, Mallory

2025 | PMEL contribution; no. 5778 | pdf

Ocean alkalinity enhancement is a proposed method of marine carbon dioxide removal that enhances the ocean’s uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and converts it to dissolved bicarbonate for long-term ocean storage. This method of marine carbon dioxide removal has been gaining attention for its potential to durably (10,000+ years) store large ...

01/23/2026

Title : Novel field trial for ocean alkalinity enhancement using electrochemically derived aqueous alkalinity Personal Author(s) : Savoie, Allison M.;Ringham, Mallory;Torres Sanchez, Carolina;Carter, Brendan R.;Dougherty, Sean;Feely, Richard A.;Hegeman, Dave;Herndon, Julian;Khangaonkar, Tarang;Loretz, Jeremy;Minck, Tyson;Pelman, Todd;Premathilake, Lakshitha;Subban, Chinmayee;Vance, Jesse;Ward, Nicholas D.; Published Date : 2025 Series : PMEL contribution; no. 5778 Source : Frontiers in Environmental Engineering, 4 DOI : https://doi.org/10.3389/fenve.2025.1641277 Journal Title : Frontiers in Environmental Engineering Savoie, Allison M. et al. (2025). Novel field trial for ocean alkalinity enhancement using electrochemically derived aqueous alkalinity. 4https://doi.org/10.3389/fenve.2025.1641277 Savoie, Allison M. et al. "Novel field trial for ocean alkalinity enhancement using electrochemically derived aqueous alkalinity" 4 (2025), https://doi.org/10.3389/fenve.2025.1641277 Savoie, Allison M. et al. "Novel field trial for ocean alkalinity enhancement using electrochemically derived aqueous alkalinity" vol. 4, 2025, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenve.2025.1641277 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Savoie, Allison M. AU - Ringham, Mallory AU - Torres Sanchez, Carolina AU - Carter, Brendan R. AU - Dougherty, Sean AU - Feely, Richard A. AU - Hegeman, Dave AU - Herndon, Julian AU - Khangaonkar, Tarang AU - Loretz, Jeremy AU - Minck, Tyson AU - Pelman, Todd AU - Premathilake, Lakshitha AU - Subban, Chinmayee AU - Vance, Jesse AU - Ward, Nicholas D. AB - Ocean alkalinity enhancement is a proposed method of marine carbon dioxide removal that enhances the ocean’s uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and converts it to dissolved bicarbonate for long-term ocean storage. This method of marine carbon dioxide removal has been gaining attention for its potential to durably (10,000+ years) store large amounts of CO2 (Gt + where 1 Gt = 1 × 109 tons), while potentially ameliorating acidification in the vicinity of the alkalinity release. This study focuses on a novel release of electrochemically derived aqueous alkalinity into Sequim Bay, WA, through a previously established wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). This research was made possible through the collaboration of industry, academic, and federal partners, which enabled the establishment of an Ebb Carbon electrochemical mCDR system at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Sequim, WA, for ocean alkalinity enhancement field trials. During these field trials, pH was measured across the WWTP system from the initial alkalinity dosing, throughout the WWTP, and at the outfall. We use the NBS scale for pH throughout this study as it is the scale used in discharge permit limits specified for WWTP and NPDES regulation and compliance monitoring. The background pHNBS of Sequim Bay seawater was between 7.5 and 7.7 for the November and February field tests. The mixing tank’s pHNBS was raised to the maximum value permitted for the WWTP (9.0) and maintained across the system (±0.2) during the outfall releases. At the outfall, the elevated pH and alkalinity was quickly diluted, such that the region with a measurable signal was limited to within ∼2.5 m of the discharge pipe. We were able to successfully monitor an increase in pHNBS across all four pulses of alkalinity-enhanced seawater discharge during the February 2025 field trial, with peak pHNBS values of 8.3 or 8.1, as recorded by outfall-adjacent YSI Exo 2 sonde and SAMI-pH sensors, respectively. The alkalinity-enhanced seawater did not measurably alter the surrounding waters’ temperature, salinity, turbidity, or oxygen. This study provides proof-of-concept for a conservative small-scale release of electrochemically generated alkalinity-enhanced seawater from a coastal outfall. AN - noaa:72353 DO - https://doi.org/10.3389/fenve.2025.1641277 J2 - Frontiers in Environmental Engineering PB - Frontiers Media SA PY - 2025 T2 - Frontiers in Environmental Engineering T2 - Frontiers in Environmental Engineering, 4 T3 - PMEL contribution; no. 5778 TI - Novel field trial for ocean alkalinity enhancement using electrochemically derived aqueous alkalinity VL - 4 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72353 ER -
A stretched Polar Vortex and North American and Eastern Asian Cold-Air Events during January/February 2025

Overland, James

;

Chandra, Varunesh

2025 | PMEL contribution; no. 5749 | pdf

During mid-January through February 2025 the low-level stratospheric polar vortex (LSPV) at 100 mb extended from North America across the pole to east-central Asia, a stretched pattern, coinciding with a period of extended cold weather on both continents. The LSPV, and its associated tropospheric blocking projections, were a main organizing feature ...

01/23/2026

Title : A stretched Polar Vortex and North American and Eastern Asian Cold-Air Events during January/February 2025 Personal Author(s) : Overland, James;Chandra, Varunesh;Kim, Baek-Min;Wang, Muyin;Ku, Hoyoung;Hanna, Edward; Published Date : 2025 Series : PMEL contribution; no. 5749 Source : PLOS Climate, 4(8), e0000679 DOI : https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000679 Journal Title : PLOS Climate Overland, James et al. (2025). A stretched Polar Vortex and North American and Eastern Asian Cold-Air Events during January/February 2025. 4(8). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000679 Overland, James et al. "A stretched Polar Vortex and North American and Eastern Asian Cold-Air Events during January/February 2025" 4, no. 8 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000679 Overland, James et al. "A stretched Polar Vortex and North American and Eastern Asian Cold-Air Events during January/February 2025" vol. 4, no. 8, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000679 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Overland, James AU - Chandra, Varunesh AU - Kim, Baek-Min AU - Wang, Muyin AU - Ku, Hoyoung AU - Hanna, Edward AB - During mid-January through February 2025 the low-level stratospheric polar vortex (LSPV) at 100 mb extended from North America across the pole to east-central Asia, a stretched pattern, coinciding with a period of extended cold weather on both continents. The LSPV, and its associated tropospheric blocking projections, were a main organizing feature. Weather events were mostly contained in the tropospheric west-east wave guide. For the United States (US), cold conditions occurred in a corridor that includes Illinois, through Mississippi and Virginia. During the second half of January, a 500 mb ridge-trough was set up off the west coast of California, driving cold temperatures into the southeastern US, with record snow in New Orleans. During early February there were cold events in Korea and Eastern Asia; an intermediate timing between cold air outbreaks in the US. The end of February saw a second US cold air outbreak. Although the stretched LSPV at 100 mb had a one and a half month duration extending over the subarctic, mid-tropospheric weather events were of shorter duration in both the US and Eastern Asia. The troughing at 100 mb in the stretched LSPV pattern coincided with event-based barotropic atmospheric troughing response at lower levels. Tropospheric weather events can coexist with the LSPV and thus contribute to sub-seasonal forecasting. AN - noaa:72352 DO - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000679 IS - 8 J2 - PLOS Climate PB - Public Library of Science (PLoS) PY - 2025 T2 - PLOS Climate T2 - PLOS Climate, 4(8), e0000679 T3 - PMEL contribution; no. 5749 TI - A stretched Polar Vortex and North American and Eastern Asian Cold-Air Events during January/February 2025 VL - 4 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72352 ER -
Intradecadal Climate Stanzas for the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and Remote Influence on the Bering Sea

Overland, James E.

;

Ballinger, Thomas J.

2025 | PMEL contribution; no. 5737 | pdf

A recent event in the Bering Sea during 2017–2020 saw localised anomalies of increased storminess, persistent southerly winds, warm surface waters and record minimums of wintertime sea ice that influenced a major ecosystem reorganisation including northward migration of fisheries. Ecological shifts impacted Alaskan coastal communities. Following th ...

01/23/2026

Title : Intradecadal Climate Stanzas for the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and Remote Influence on the Bering Sea Personal Author(s) : Overland, James E.;Ballinger, Thomas J.; Published Date : 2025 Series : PMEL contribution; no. 5737 Source : International Journal of Climatology, 45(14) DOI : https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70092 Journal Title : International Journal of Climatology Overland, James E. and Ballinger, Thomas J. (2025). Intradecadal Climate Stanzas for the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and Remote Influence on the Bering Sea. 45(14). https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70092 Overland, James E. and Ballinger, Thomas J. "Intradecadal Climate Stanzas for the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and Remote Influence on the Bering Sea" 45, no. 14 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70092 Overland, James E. and Ballinger, Thomas J. "Intradecadal Climate Stanzas for the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and Remote Influence on the Bering Sea" vol. 45, no. 14, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70092 Export RIS Citation Information. TY - AU - Overland, James E. AU - Ballinger, Thomas J. AB - A recent event in the Bering Sea during 2017–2020 saw localised anomalies of increased storminess, persistent southerly winds, warm surface waters and record minimums of wintertime sea ice that influenced a major ecosystem reorganisation including northward migration of fisheries. Ecological shifts impacted Alaskan coastal communities. Following this event, the Bering Sea returned to a typical range of environmental conditions. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) represents a robust, recurring pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean–atmosphere climate variability centered over the northern mid-latitude Pacific Ocean basin. The resulting positive (negative) PDO pattern has anomalously cool (warm) SSTs in the interior northern North Pacific. The PDO had a short shift to positive values at the same time as the 2017–2020 Bering Sea event, and then returned to long-term negative values thereafter. We propose a teleconnection between northern North Pacific positive SST anomalies and Bering Sea conditions, mediated by the position of the Aleutian Low storm track. During a negative PDO phase, the gradient of overlying lower tropospheric air temperatures on the north side of the warm North Pacific SST pattern reinforces strong zonal flow of the Aleutian Low that inhibits advection of warm air temperatures into the central Bering Sea. PDO index values are often observed on decade and longer periods of one prevailing sign and thus give a mechanism for multi-year memory. We refer to sequential values of Bering Sea and PDO indicators as stanzas, although it is not possible to statistically determine if they represent clear regime shifts. The ongoing 2021–2025 negative PDO stanza, and its contrast with the previous 2017–2020 period, suggest a mechanism for the recent return of the Bering Sea to historical typical conditions, and provides a low chance of the Bering Sea returning to 2017–2020-like extreme conditions in the near future. AN - noaa:72351 DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70092 IS - 14 J2 - International Journal of Climatology PB - Wiley PY - 2025 T2 - International Journal of Climatology T2 - International Journal of Climatology, 45(14) T3 - PMEL contribution; no. 5737 TI - Intradecadal Climate Stanzas for the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and Remote Influence on the Bering Sea VL - 45 UR - https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72351 ER -

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