Applications of marine ecosystem models for Pacific salmon conservation and management in the Northeast Pacific

Details

• Journal Title:
  FACETS
• Personal Author:
  Tulloch, Vivitskaia J.D. ; Murray, Cathryn ; Surma, Szymon ; Barnes, Cheryl L. ; Conn, Jaid ; Holsman, Kirstin ; Martin, Tara ; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini ; Reum, Jonathan C.P. ; Berry, Kathryn
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center) ; NWFSC (Northwest Fisheries Science Center)
• Description:
  Pacific salmon populations have experienced widespread declines despite substantial single-species management, highlighting the need for ecosystem-based approaches that consider life-cycle dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and environmental variability. Management models are typically split between freshwater and marine realms, limiting comprehensive assessment across the full salmon life cycle. This systematic review synthesizes 34 peer-reviewed marine multispecies ecosystem models (MEMs) developed from 2000 to 2024 that include Pacific salmon, their main predators, and prey. Models ranged from aggregated frameworks to complex end-to-end platforms, covering the California Current, British Columbia, Salish Sea, Bering Sea, and Gulf of Alaska, with 11-170 functional groups. Salmon representation varied from aggregated groups to detailed life-stage frameworks, with all models including key trophic linkages with forage species and marine mammal predators. Climate change was included in 65% of studies, mostly via primary productivity anomalies, but only six simulated future scenarios. Fishing pressure was evaluated in 85% of studies, yet only 32% addressed explicit management applications, revealing a critical science-management gap. Major gaps include limited spatial-temporal resolution, insufficient climate integration, and limited operational uptake. We recommend linking marine and freshwater models, co-development with managers and rightsholders, enhanced climate coupling, and ensemble modeling to advance ecosystem-based fisheries management and address urgent salmon conservation challenges.
• Source:
  FACETS, 11, 1-24
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2025-0261
• ISSN:
  2371-1671
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  Canadian Science Publishing
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:b0f9fd53f0884f06e554032f9fad40d00ddd4ccde9bc690b804ac2daff757b6bddb9e8849614a224e4ab2c7273c58764bc9a78ec2b53e28bc43d7d801e910e4f
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/74020/noaa_74020_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.02 MB ]