-
- Add this to...
-
Twitter
-
Facebook
-
Google Bookmarks
-
LinkedIn
File Format:
RIS
A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
-
Published Date:2016
-
Source:Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1669-1694.

Details:
-
Personal Authors:
-
Description:The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2012. The need for an effective hourly updated assimilation and modeling system for the United States for situational awareness and related decision-making has continued to increase for various applications including aviation (and transportation in general), severe weather, and energy. The RAP is distinct from the previous RUC in three primary aspects: a larger geographical domain (covering North America), use of the community-based Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (ARW) replacing the RUC forecast model, and use of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system (GSI) instead of the RUC three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar). As part of the RAP development, modifications have been made to the community ARW model (especially in model physics) and GSI assimilation systems, some based on previous model and assimilation design innovations developed initially with the RUC. Upper-air comparison is included for forecast verification against both rawinsondes and aircraft reports, the latter allowing hourly verification. In general, the RAP produces superior forecasts to those from the RUC, and its skill has continued to increase from 2012 up to RAP version 3 as of 2015. In addition, the RAP can improve on persistence forecasts for the 1-3-h forecast range for surface, upper-air, and ceiling forecasts.
-
Document Type:
-
Supporting Files:No Additional Files
Related Documents:
-
-
Personal Author:Jackson, D. L.; Hughes, M.; Wick, G. A.;Published:2016Source:Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(6), 2705-2718.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over ...
-
Personal Author:Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;Published:2016Source:Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
-
Personal Author:Matrosov, S. Y.; Cifelli, R.; Neiman, P. J.; White, A. B.;Published:2016Source:Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
-
Personal Author:Zawislak, J.; Jiang, H. Y.; Alvey, G. R.; Zipser, E. J.; Rogers, R. F.; Zhang, J. A.; Stevenson, S. N.;Published:2016Source:Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
-
Personal Author:Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;Published:2016Source:Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
-
Personal Author:Thorarinsdottir, T. L.; Scheuerer, M.; Heinz, C.;Published:2016Source:Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 25(1), 105-122.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:Any decision-making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily requires a calibrated forecast. This article proposes new methods for empirically assessing forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the prob...
-
Personal Author:Albers, J. R.; Kiladis, G. N.; Birner, T.; Dias, J.;Published:2016Source:Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(6), 2361-2384.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:The intrusion of lower-stratospheric extratropical potential vorticity into the tropical upper troposphere in the weeks surrounding the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is examined. The analysis reveals that SSW-related PV intrusion...
-
Personal Author:Lynn, B. H.; Khain, A. P.; Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Yuan, T.; Kelman, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Shpund, J.; Benmoshe, N.;Published:2016Source:Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(2), 467-486.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, the hurricane weakened much faster than was predicted. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurr...
-
Personal Author:Kingsmill, D. E.; Persson, P. O. G.; Haimov, S.; Shupe, M. D.;Published:2016Source:Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(695), 836-853.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:This study characterizes mountain waves and orographic precipitation associated with a winter storm passing over the approximate to 3.5 km above mean sea level (MSL) Park Range of northern Colorado on 15 December 2010. Observations from an airborne v...
-
Personal Author:Li, F.; Vikhliaev, Y. V.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.; Waugh, D. W.; Douglass, A. R.;Published:2016Source:Journal of Climate, 29(9), 3199-3218.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the pres...
-
Personal Author:Mahoney, K.; Jackson, D. L.; Neiman, P.; Hughes, M.; Darby, L.; Wick, G.; White, A.; Sukovich, E.; Cifelli, R.;Published:2016Source:Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1617-1632.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water va...
-
Personal Author:Lei, L. L.; Whitaker, J. S.;Published:2016Source:Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
-
Personal Author:Swales, D.; Alexander, M.; Hughes, M.;Published:2016Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 43(4), 1727-1735.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were used to explore relationships between large-scale synoptic conditions, especially vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT), and extreme precipitation events in the U.S. Intermountain West (IMW). By examining ...
-
Personal Author:Hoell, A.; Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Wolter, K.; Dole, R.; Perlwitz, J.; Xu, T. Y.; Cheng, L. Y.;Published:2016Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 43(2), 819-825.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:The sensitivity of California precipitation to El Nino intensity is investigated by applying a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations to estimate how November-April precipitation probability distributions vary across three categorizati...
-
Personal Author:Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;Published:2016Source:Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
-
Personal Author:Scott, J. D.; Alexander, M. A.; Murray, D. R.; Swales, D.; Eischeid, J.;Published:2016Source:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(4), 523-530.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
-
Personal Author:Ralph, F. M.; Cordeira, J. M.; Neiman, P. J.; Hughes, M.;Published:2016Source:Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(7), 1905-1914.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:The upper Sacramento River watershed is vital to California's water supply and is susceptible to major floods. Orographic precipitation in this complex terrain involves both atmospheric rivers (ARs) and the Sierra barrier jet (SBJ). The south-southea...
-
Personal Author:Hobbins, M. T.Published:2016Source:Transactions of the Asabe, 59(2), 561-576.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:To fully attribute the variability of reference evapotranspiration to its drivers, a mean-value, second-moment uncertainty analysis is applied to a 30-year, CONUS-wide reanalysis of daily and annual tall-crop reference evapotranspiration as estimated...
-
Personal Author:Williams, C. R.Published:2016Source:Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 33(3), 579-595.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:This study consists of two parts. The first part describes the way in which vertical air motions and raindrop size distributions (DSDs) were retrieved from 449-MHz and 2.835-GHz (UHF and S band) vertically pointing radars (VPRs) deployed side by side...
-
Personal Author:Bianco, L.; Djalalova, I. V.; Wilczak, J. M.; Cline, J.; Calvert, S.; Konopleva-Akish, E.; Finley, C.; Freedman, J.;Published:2016Source:Weather and Forecasting, 31(4), 1137-1156.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:A wind energy Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) has been developed out of recognition that during significant ramp events (large changes in wind power Delta p over short periods of time Delta t) it is more difficult to balance the electric load with power ...
-
You May Also Like:
-
Personal Author:Peckham, S. E.; Smirnova, T. G.; Benjamin, S. G.; Brown, J. M.; Kenyon, J. S.;Published:2016Source:Monthly Weather Review, 144(1), 99-106.Description:Because of limitations of variational and ensemble data assimilation schemes, resulting analysis fields exhibit some noise from imbalance in subsequent model forecasts. Controlling finescale noise is desirable in the NOAA's Rapid Refresh (RAP) assimi...
-
Personal Author:Djalalova, I. V.; Olson, J.; Carley, J. R.; Bianco, L.; Wilczak, J. M.; Pichugina, Y.; Banta, R.; Marquis, M.; Cline, J.;Published:2016Source:Weather and Forecasting, 31(4), 1071-1091.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:During the summer of 2004 a network of 11 wind profiling radars (WPRs) was deployed in New England as part of the New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Observations from this dataset are used to determine their impact on numerical weather prediction...
-
Personal Author:Benjamin, S. G.; Brown, J. M.; Smirnova, T. G.;Published:2016Source:Weather and Forecasting, 31(2), 609-619.Description:The Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), both operational at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) use the Thompson et al. mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. This scheme permits predicted surfac...
-
Personal Author:Smirnova, T. G.; Brown, J. M.; Benjamin, S. G.; Kenyon, J. S.;Published:2016Source:Monthly Weather Review, 144(5), 1851-1865.Series:CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)Description:The land surface model (LSM) described in this manuscript was originally developed as part of the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model development effort; with ongoing modifications, it is now used as an option for the WRF community model. The RUC mod...
-
Personal Author:Schlatter, Thomas W.Corporate Author:Earth System Research Laboratory (U.S.), Global Systems Division,Published:2012Series:NOAA technical memorandum OAR GSD ; 55Description:"This survey was commissioned by the National Weather Service (NWS), U.S. Department of Commerce. Its purpose is to obtain a fairly comprehensive inventory of aviation weather products available at the middle of calendar year 2011. The survey will be...