Does El Nino intensity matter for California precipitation?

Hoell, Andrew; Hoerling, Martin; Eischeid, Jon; Wolter, Klaus; Dole, Randall; Perlwitz, Judith; Xu, Taiyi; Cheng, Linyin

doi:10.1002/2015GL067102

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Does El Nino intensity matter for California precipitation?

2016
By Hoell, Andrew ; Hoerling, Martin ; Eischeid, Jon ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 43(2), 819-825.

[PDF-1.72 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Hoell, Andrew ; Hoerling, Martin ; Eischeid, Jon ; Wolter, Klaus ; Dole, Randall ; ... More +

Hoell, Andrew ; Hoerling, Martin ; Eischeid, Jon ; Wolter, Klaus ; Dole, Randall ; Perlwitz, Judith ; Xu, Taiyi ; Cheng, Linyin Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) Less -
Description:

The sensitivity of California precipitation to El Nino intensity is investigated by applying a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations to estimate how November-April precipitation probability distributions vary across three categorizations of El Nino intensity. Weak and moderate El Nino events fail to appreciably alter wet or dry risks across northern and central California, though odds for wet conditions increase across southern California duringmoderate El Nino. Significant increases in wet probabilities occur during strong El Nino events across the entire state. In California's main northern watershed regions, simulations indicate an 85% chance of greater than normal precipitation and a 50% probability of at least 125% of normal. Our results indicate that both the statewide average and the spatial distribution of California precipitation are sensitive to El Nino intensity. Forecasts of El Nino intensity would thus contribute to improved situational awareness for California water planning and related water resource impacts.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 43(2), 819-825.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067102
Document Type:

Journal Article
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:ce5df8efd786d5f27014ebc9ddefd21e3fd07cf4e0e9d7c29afce73cefec082f
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/14554/noaa_14554_DS1.pdf
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abstract

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