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A Wind Energy Ramp Tool and Metric for Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models
  • Published Date:
    2016
  • Source:
    Weather and Forecasting, 31(4), 1137-1156.
Filetype[PDF-2.82 MB]


Details:
    1. The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irene to Aerosols and Ocean Coupling: Simulations with WRF Spectral Bin Microphysics
      Personal Author:
      Lynn, B. H.; Khain, A. P.; Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Yuan, T.; Kelman, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Shpund, J.; Benmoshe, N.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(2), 467-486.
      Description:
      Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, the hurricane weakened much faster than was predicted. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurr...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 4.12 MB]
    2. The Physics of Drought in the US Central Great Plains
      Personal Author:
      Livneh, B.; Hoerling, M. P.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6783-6804.
      Description:
      The semiarid U.S. Great Plains is prone to severe droughts having major consequences for agricultural production, livestock health, and river navigation. The recent 2012 event was accompanied by record deficits in precipitation and high temperatures ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.75 MB]
    3. Forced Atmospheric Teleconnections during 1979-2014
      Personal Author:
      Zhang, T.; Hoerling, M. P.; Perlwitz, J.; Xu, T. Y.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2333-2357.
      Description:
      Forced atmospheric teleconnections during 1979-2014 are examined using a 50-member ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations subjected to observed variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea ice, and carbon dioxide. ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.76 MB]
    4. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5)
      Personal Author:
      Li, F.; Vikhliaev, Y. V.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.; Waugh, D. W.; Douglass, A. R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(9), 3199-3218.
      Description:
      Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the pres...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.98 MB]
    5. Reflectivity and Liquid Water Content Vertical Decomposition Diagrams to Diagnose Vertical Evolution of Raindrop Size Distributions
      Personal Author:
      Williams, C. R.
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 33(3), 579-595.
      Description:
      This study consists of two parts. The first part describes the way in which vertical air motions and raindrop size distributions (DSDs) were retrieved from 449-MHz and 2.835-GHz (UHF and S band) vertically pointing radars (VPRs) deployed side by side...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.16 MB]
    6. A Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      Personal Author:
      Lei, L. L.; Whitaker, J. S.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.
      Description:
      The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.32 MB]
    7. The relationships between insoluble precipitation residues, clouds, and precipitation over California's southern Sierra Nevada during winter storms
      Personal Author:
      Creamean, J. M.; White, A. B.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D. A.; Prather, K. A.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
      Description:
      Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.82 MB]
    8. Observations of the Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during Intensity Change. Part I: Relationship between the Thermodynamic Structure and Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Zawislak, J.; Jiang, H. Y.; Alvey, G. R.; Zipser, E. J.; Rogers, R. F.; Zhang, J. A.; Stevenson, S. N.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
      Description:
      The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.96 MB]
    9. Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years
      Personal Author:
      Turney, C. S. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lister, D.; Jones, P.; Williams, A. N.; Hogg, A.; Thomas, Z. A.; Compo, G. P.; Yin, X. G.; Fogwill, C. J.; Palmer, J.; Colwell, S.; Allan, R.; Visbeck, M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Environmental Research Letters, 11(6), 064009.
      Description:
      Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational record...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.73 MB]
    10. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6
      Personal Author:
      Pincus, R.; Forster, P. M.; Stevens, B.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3447-3460.
      Description:
      The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 - "How does the Earth system respond to forcing?" - suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in c...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 158.64 KB]
    11. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.58 MB]
    12. Evaluation of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast in reanalysis data sets
      Personal Author:
      Jackson, D. L.; Hughes, M.; Wick, G. A.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(6), 2705-2718.
      Description:
      An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.51 MB]
    13. The Evaporative Demand Drought Index. Part I: Linking Drought Evolution to Variations in Evaporative Demand
      Personal Author:
      Hobbins, M. T.; Wood, A.; McEvoy, D. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Morton, C.; Anderson, M.; Hain, C.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(6), 1745-1761.
      Description:
      Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analyses and products that reflect the evaporative dynamics of drought. The linkage bet...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 10.92 MB]
    14. Understanding the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States
      Personal Author:
      Mahoney, K.; Jackson, D. L.; Neiman, P.; Hughes, M.; Darby, L.; Wick, G.; White, A.; Sukovich, E.; Cifelli, R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1617-1632.
      Description:
      An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water va...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.36 MB]
    15. The Role of Springtime Arctic Clouds in Determining Autumn Sea Ice Extent
      Personal Author:
      Cox, C. J.; Uttal, T.; Long, C. N.; Shupe, M. D.; Stone, R. S.; Starkweather, S.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6581-6596.
      Description:
      Recent studies suggest that the atmosphere conditions arctic sea ice properties in spring in a way that may be an important factor in predetermining autumn sea ice concentrations. Here, the role of clouds in this system is analyzed using surface-base...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.18 MB]
    16. Does ocean coupling matter for the northern extratropical response to projected Arctic sea ice loss?
      Personal Author:
      Deser, C.; Sun, L. T.; Tomas, R. A.; Screen, J.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(5), 2149-2157.
      Description:
      The question of whether ocean coupling matters for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere atmospheric response to projected late 21st century Arctic sea ice loss is addressed using a series of experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.79 MB]
    17. International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere: An International Polar Year Legacy Consortium
      Personal Author:
      Uttal, T.; Starkweather, S.; Drummond, J. R.; Vihma, T.; Makshtas, A. P.; Darby, L. S.; Burkhart, J. F.; Cox, C. J.; Schmeisser, L. N.; Haiden, T.; Maturilli, M.; Shupe, M. D.; De Boer, G.; Saha, A.; Grachev, A. A.; Crepinsek, S. M.; Bruhwiler, L.; Goodison, B.; McArthur, B.; Walden, V. P.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Persson, P. O. G.; Lesins, G.; Laurila, T.; Ogren, J. A.; Stone, R.; Long, C. N.; Sharma, S.; Massling, A.; Turner, D. D.; Stanitski, D. M.; Asmi, E.; Aurela, M.; Skov, H.; Eleftheriadis, K.; Virkkula, A.; Platt, A.; Forland, E. J.; Iijima, Y.; Nielsen, I. E.; Bergin, M. H.; Candlish, L.; Zimov, N. S.; Zimov, S. A.; O'Neill, N. T.; Fogal, P. F.; Kivi, R.; Konopleva-Akish, E. A.; Verlinde, J.; Kustov, V. Y.; Vasel, B.; Ivakhov, V. M.; Viisanen, Y.; Intrieri, J. M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(6), 1033-1056.
      Description:
      International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA) activities and partnerships were initiated as a part of the 2007-09 International Polar Year (IPY) and are expected to continue for many decades as a legacy program. The IASOA focus is...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.17 MB]
    18. Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
      Description:
      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 9.93 MB]
    19. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Personal Author:
      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.90 MB]
    20. Variability in projected elevation dependent warming in boreal midlatitude winter in CMIP5 climate models and its potential drivers
      Personal Author:
      Rangwala, I.; Sinsky, E.; Miller, J. R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Climate Dynamics, 46(7-8), 2115-2122.
      Description:
      The future rate of climate change in mountains has many potential human impacts, including those related to water resources, ecosystem services, and recreation. Analysis of the ensemble mean response of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) shows amplif...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.52 MB]
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