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A Wind Energy Ramp Tool and Metric for Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Filetype[PDF-2.82 MB]


Details:
  • Personal Authors:
  • Description:
    A wind energy Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) has been developed out of recognition that during significant ramp events (large changes in wind power Delta p over short periods of time Delta t) it is more difficult to balance the electric load with power production than during quiescent periods between ramp events. A ramp specific metric is needed because standard metrics do not give special consideration to ramp events and hence may not provide an appropriate measure of model skill or skill improvement. This RT&M has three components. The first identifies ramp events in the power time series. The second matches in time forecast and observed ramps. The third determines a skill score of the forecast model. This is calculated from a utility operator's perspective, incorporates phase and duration errors in time as well as power amplitude errors, and recognizes that up and down ramps have different impacts on grid operation. The RT&M integrates skill over a matrix of ramp events of varying amplitudes and durations.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Collection(s):
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
  • Main Document Checksum:
    1. Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years
      Personal Author:
      Turney, C. S. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lister, D.; Jones, P.; Williams, A. N.; Hogg, A.; Thomas, Z. A.; Compo, G. P.; Yin, X. G.; Fogwill, C. J.; Palmer, J.; Colwell, S.; Allan, R.; Visbeck, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Environmental Research Letters, 11(6), 064009.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational record...
      File Type:
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    2. Variability in projected elevation dependent warming in boreal midlatitude winter in CMIP5 climate models and its potential drivers
      Personal Author:
      Rangwala, I.; Sinsky, E.; Miller, J. R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Climate Dynamics, 46(7-8), 2115-2122.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The future rate of climate change in mountains has many potential human impacts, including those related to water resources, ecosystem services, and recreation. Analysis of the ensemble mean response of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) shows amplif...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.52 MB]
    3. Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 9.93 MB]
    4. Evaluation of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast in reanalysis data sets
      Personal Author:
      Jackson, D. L.; Hughes, M.; Wick, G. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(6), 2705-2718.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.51 MB]
    5. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted RegressionCorrected Forecasts
      Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
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      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    6. Future costcompetitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
      Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
      Personal Author:
      MacDonald, A. E.; Clack, C. T. M.; Alexander, A.; Dunbar, A.; Wilczak, J.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 526-531.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces these emissions, but is subject to the variability of the weather. In the present study, we calcula...
    7. The Evaporative Demand Drought Index. Part I: Linking Drought Evolution to Variations in Evaporative Demand
      Personal Author:
      Hobbins, M. T.; Wood, A.; McEvoy, D. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Morton, C.; Anderson, M.; Hain, C.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(6), 1745-1761.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analyses and products that reflect the evaporative dynamics of drought. The linkage bet...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 10.92 MB]
    8. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6
      Personal Author:
      Pincus, R.; Forster, P. M.; Stevens, B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3447-3460.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 - "How does the Earth system respond to forcing?" - suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in c...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 158.64 KB]
    9. What caused the recent "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern in winter temperatures?
      Personal Author:
      Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), 5345-5352.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use m...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.72 MB]
    10. Microwave signatures of ice hydrometeors from ground-based observations above Summit, Greenland
      Personal Author:
      Pettersen, C.; Bennartz, R.; Kulie, M. S.; Merrelli, A. J.; Shupe, M. D.; Turner, D. D.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(7), 4743-4756.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Multi-instrument, ground-based measurements provide unique and comprehensive data sets of the atmosphere for a specific location over long periods of time and resulting data compliment past and existing global satellite observations. This paper explo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.48 MB]
    11. The relationships between insoluble precipitation residues, clouds, and precipitation over California's southern Sierra Nevada during winter storms
      Personal Author:
      Creamean, J. M.; White, A. B.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D. A.; Prather, K. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.82 MB]
    12. Toward autonomous surface-based infrared remote sensing of polar clouds: cloud-height retrievals
      Personal Author:
      Rowe, P. M.; Cox, C. J.; Walden, V.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 9(8), 3641-3659.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Polar regions are characterized by their remoteness, making measurements challenging, but an improved knowledge of clouds and radiation is necessary to understand polar climate change. Infrared radiance spectrometers can operate continuously from the...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 796.95 KB]
    13. Radar Rain-Rate Estimators and Their Variability due to Rainfall Type: An Assessment Based on Hydrometeorology Testbed Data from the Southeastern United States
      Personal Author:
      Matrosov, S. Y.; Cifelli, R.; Neiman, P. J.; White, A. B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.41 MB]
    14. Observations of the Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during Intensity Change. Part I: Relationship between the Thermodynamic Structure and Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Zawislak, J.; Jiang, H. Y.; Alvey, G. R.; Zipser, E. J.; Rogers, R. F.; Zhang, J. A.; Stevenson, S. N.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.96 MB]
    15. Mountain waves and orographic precipitation in a northern Colorado winter storm
      Mountain waves and orographic precipitation in a northern Colorado winter storm
      Personal Author:
      Kingsmill, D. E.; Persson, P. O. G.; Haimov, S.; Shupe, M. D.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(695), 836-853.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study characterizes mountain waves and orographic precipitation associated with a winter storm passing over the approximate to 3.5 km above mean sea level (MSL) Park Range of northern Colorado on 15 December 2010. Observations from an airborne v...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 53.70 KB]
    16. The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irene to Aerosols and Ocean Coupling Simulations with WRF Spectral Bin Microphysics
      The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irene to Aerosols and Ocean Coupling: Simulations with WRF Spectral Bin Microphysics
      Personal Author:
      Lynn, B. H.; Khain, A. P.; Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Yuan, T.; Kelman, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Shpund, J.; Benmoshe, N.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(2), 467-486.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, the hurricane weakened much faster than was predicted. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurr...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    17. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.58 MB]
    18. Assessing the Calibration of HighDimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
      Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
      Personal Author:
      Thorarinsdottir, T. L.; Scheuerer, M.; Heinz, C.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 25(1), 105-122.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Any decision-making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily requires a calibrated forecast. This article proposes new methods for empirically assessing forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the prob...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 40.72 KB]
    19. A FourDimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      A Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      Personal Author:
      Lei, L. L.; Whitaker, J. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    20. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers, the Sierra Barrier Jet, and Extreme Daily Precipitation in Northern California's Upper Sacramento River Watershed
      Personal Author:
      Ralph, F. M.; Cordeira, J. M.; Neiman, P. J.; Hughes, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(7), 1905-1914.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The upper Sacramento River watershed is vital to California's water supply and is susceptible to major floods. Orographic precipitation in this complex terrain involves both atmospheric rivers (ARs) and the Sierra barrier jet (SBJ). The south-southea...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.19 MB]
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