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A Wind Energy Ramp Tool and Metric for Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Filetype[PDF-2.82 MB]


Details:
  • Personal Author:
  • Description:
    A wind energy Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) has been developed out of recognition that during significant ramp events (large changes in wind power Delta p over short periods of time Delta t) it is more difficult to balance the electric load with power production than during quiescent periods between ramp events. A ramp specific metric is needed because standard metrics do not give special consideration to ramp events and hence may not provide an appropriate measure of model skill or skill improvement. This RT&M has three components. The first identifies ramp events in the power time series. The second matches in time forecast and observed ramps. The third determines a skill score of the forecast model. This is calculated from a utility operator's perspective, incorporates phase and duration errors in time as well as power amplitude errors, and recognizes that up and down ramps have different impacts on grid operation. The RT&M integrates skill over a matrix of ramp events of varying amplitudes and durations.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Collection(s):
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
  • Main Document Checksum:
    1. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 GEOS5
      Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5)
      Personal Author:
      Li, F.; Vikhliaev, Y. V.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.; Waugh, D. W.; Douglass, A. R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(9), 3199-3218.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the pres...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    2. Modifications to the Rapid Update Cycle Land Surface Model (RUC LSM) Available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
      Personal Author:
      Smirnova, T. G.; Brown, J. M.; Benjamin, S. G.; Kenyon, J. S.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(5), 1851-1865.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The land surface model (LSM) described in this manuscript was originally developed as part of the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model development effort; with ongoing modifications, it is now used as an option for the WRF community model. The RUC mod...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.07 MB]
    3. Observations of the Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during Intensity Change. Part I: Relationship between the Thermodynamic Structure and Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Zawislak, J.; Jiang, H. Y.; Alvey, G. R.; Zipser, E. J.; Rogers, R. F.; Zhang, J. A.; Stevenson, S. N.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.96 MB]
    4. A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
      Personal Author:
      Benjamin, S. G.; Weygandt, S. S.; Brown, J. M.; Hu, M.; Alexander, C. R.; Smirnova, T. G.; Olson, J. B.; James, E. P.; Dowell, D. C.; Grell, G. A.; Lin, H. D.; Peckham, S. E.; Smith, T. L.; Moninger, W. R.; Kenyon, J. S.; Manikin, G. S.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1669-1694.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    5. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.58 MB]
    6. BRIDGING RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS TRANSITIONS Status and Plans of Community GSI
      Personal Author:
      Shao, H.; Derber, J.; Huang, X. Y.; Hu, M.; Newman, K.; Stark, D.; Lueken, M.; Zhou, C. H.; Nance, L.; Kuo, Y. H.; Brown, B.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(8), 1427-+.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      With a goal of improving operational numerical weather prediction (NWP), the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) has been working with operational centers, including, among others, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oce...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1001.70 KB]
    7. THE EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION SUITE Toward a Coordinated US Modeling Capability
      Personal Author:
      Theurich, G.; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.; Liu, F.; Saint, K.; Vertenstein, M.; Chen, J.; Oehmke, R.; Doyle, J.; Whitcomb, T.; Wallcraft, A.; Iredell, M.; Black, T.; da Silva, A. M.; Clune, T.; Ferraro, R.; Li, P.; Kelley, M.; Aleinov, I.; Balaji, V.; Zadeh, N.; Jacob, R.; Kirtman, B.; Giraldo, F.; McCarren, D.; Sandgathe, S.; Peckham, S.; Dunlap, R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(7), 1229-1247.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.30 MB]
    8. What caused the recent "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern in winter temperatures?
      Personal Author:
      Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), 5345-5352.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use m...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.72 MB]
    9. A multi-decade record of high-quality fCO(2) data in version 3 of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT)
      Personal Author:
      Bakker, D. C. E.; Pfeil, B.; Landa, C. S.; Metzl, N.; O'Brien, K. M.; Olsen, A.; Smith, K.; Cosca, C.; Harasawa, S.; Jones, S. D.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; Schuster, U.; Steinhoff, T.; Sweeney, C.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; Wada, C.; Wanninkhof, R.; Alin, S. R.; Balestrini, C. F.; Barbero, L.; Bates, N. R.; Bianchi, A. A.; Bonou, F.; Boutin, J.; Bozec, Y.; Burger, E. F.; Cai, W. J.; Castle, R. D.; Chen, L. Q.; Chierici, M.; Currie, K.; Evans, W.; Featherstone, C.; Feely, R. A.; Fransson, A.; Goyet, C.; Greenwood, N.; Gregor, L.; Hankin, S.; Hardman-Mountford, N. J.; Harlay, J.; Hauck, J.; Hoppema, M.; Humphreys, M. P.; Hunt, C.; Huss, B.; Ibanhez, J. S. P.; Johannessen, T.; Keeling, R.; Kitidis, V.; Kortzinger, A.; Kozyr, A.; Krasakopoulou, E.; Kuwata, A.; Landschutzer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefevre, N.; Lo Monaco, C.; Manke, A.; Mathis, J. T.; Merlivat, L.; Millero, F. J.; Monteiro, P. M. S.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Newberger, T.; Omar, A. M.; Ono, T.; Paterson, K.; Pearce, D.; Pierrot, D.; Robbins, L. L.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J.; Schlitzer, R.; Schneider, B.; Schweitzer, R.; Sieger, R.; Skjelvan, I.; Sullivan, K. F.; Sutherland, S. C.; Sutton, A. J.; Tadokoro, K.; Telszewski, M.; Tuma, M.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Ward, B.; Watson, A. J.; Xu, S. Q.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Earth System Science Data, 8(2), 383-413.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis of quality-controlled fCO(2) (fugacity of carbon dioxide) values for the global surface oceans and coastal seas with regular updates. Version 3 of SOCAT has 14.7 million fCO(2) values from 3646 data ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.46 MB]
    10. On the climate impacts of atolls in the central equatorial Pacific
      Personal Author:
      Karnauskas, K. B.; Johnson, G. C.; Murtugudde, R.;
      Published Date:
      2017
      Source:
      International Journal of Climatology, 37(1), 197-203.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.86 MB]
    11. The relationships between insoluble precipitation residues, clouds, and precipitation over California's southern Sierra Nevada during winter storms
      Personal Author:
      Creamean, J. M.; White, A. B.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D. A.; Prather, K. A.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.82 MB]
    12. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6
      Personal Author:
      Pincus, R.; Forster, P. M.; Stevens, B.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3447-3460.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 - "How does the Earth system respond to forcing?" - suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in c...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 158.64 KB]
    13. Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 9.93 MB]
    14. Microwave signatures of ice hydrometeors from ground-based observations above Summit, Greenland
      Personal Author:
      Pettersen, C.; Bennartz, R.; Kulie, M. S.; Merrelli, A. J.; Shupe, M. D.; Turner, D. D.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(7), 4743-4756.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Multi-instrument, ground-based measurements provide unique and comprehensive data sets of the atmosphere for a specific location over long periods of time and resulting data compliment past and existing global satellite observations. This paper explo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.48 MB]
    15. Does El Nino intensity matter for California precipitation?
      Personal Author:
      Hoell, A.; Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Wolter, K.; Dole, R.; Perlwitz, J.; Xu, T. Y.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(2), 819-825.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The sensitivity of California precipitation to El Nino intensity is investigated by applying a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations to estimate how November-April precipitation probability distributions vary across three categorizati...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.72 MB]
    16. Understanding the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States
      Personal Author:
      Mahoney, K.; Jackson, D. L.; Neiman, P.; Hughes, M.; Darby, L.; Wick, G.; White, A.; Sukovich, E.; Cifelli, R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1617-1632.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water va...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.36 MB]
    17. Radar Rain-Rate Estimators and Their Variability due to Rainfall Type: An Assessment Based on Hydrometeorology Testbed Data from the Southeastern United States
      Personal Author:
      Matrosov, S. Y.; Cifelli, R.; Neiman, P. J.; White, A. B.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.41 MB]
    18. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted RegressionCorrected Forecasts
      Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Personal Author:
      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    19. The Role of Springtime Arctic Clouds in Determining Autumn Sea Ice Extent
      Personal Author:
      Cox, C. J.; Uttal, T.; Long, C. N.; Shupe, M. D.; Stone, R. S.; Starkweather, S.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6581-6596.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Recent studies suggest that the atmosphere conditions arctic sea ice properties in spring in a way that may be an important factor in predetermining autumn sea ice concentrations. Here, the role of clouds in this system is analyzed using surface-base...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.18 MB]
    20. Pathways to the Production of Precipitating Hydrometeors and Tropical Cyclone Development
      Personal Author:
      Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Grell, E. D.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(6), 2395-2420.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Pathways to the production of precipitation in two cloud microphysics schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are investigated in a scenario of tropical cyclone intensification. Comparisons of the results from the WRF Mo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 4.10 MB]
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