A Wind Energy Ramp Tool and Metric for Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Bianco, L.; Djalalova, I. V.; Wilczak, J. M.; Cline, J.; Calvert, S.; Konopleva-Akish, E.; Finley, C.; Freedman, J.

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A Wind Energy Ramp Tool and Metric for Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Published Date:

2016

Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 31(4), 1137-1156.

Series:

CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)

[PDF-2.82 MB]

Details:

Personal Authors:

Bianco, L. ; Djalalova, I. V. ; Wilczak, J. M. ; Cline, J. ; Calvert, S. ; ... More ▼

Description:

A wind energy Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) has been developed out of recognition that during significant ramp events (large changes in wind power Delta p over short periods of time Delta t) it is more difficult to balance the electric load with power production than during quiescent periods between ramp events. A ramp specific metric is needed because standard metrics do not give special consideration to ramp events and hence may not provide an appropriate measure of model skill or skill improvement. This RT&M has three components. The first identifies ramp events in the power time series. The second matches in time forecast and observed ramps. The third determines a skill score of the forecast model. This is calculated from a utility operator's perspective, incorporates phase and duration errors in time as well as power amplitude errors, and recognizes that up and down ramps have different impacts on grid operation. The RT&M integrates skill over a matrix of ramp events of varying amplitudes and durations.

Document Type:

Journal Article

Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)

Supporting Files:

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