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A Wind Energy Ramp Tool and Metric for Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Filetype[PDF-2.82 MB]


Details:
  • Personal Authors:
  • Description:
    A wind energy Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) has been developed out of recognition that during significant ramp events (large changes in wind power Delta p over short periods of time Delta t) it is more difficult to balance the electric load with power production than during quiescent periods between ramp events. A ramp specific metric is needed because standard metrics do not give special consideration to ramp events and hence may not provide an appropriate measure of model skill or skill improvement. This RT&M has three components. The first identifies ramp events in the power time series. The second matches in time forecast and observed ramps. The third determines a skill score of the forecast model. This is calculated from a utility operator's perspective, incorporates phase and duration errors in time as well as power amplitude errors, and recognizes that up and down ramps have different impacts on grid operation. The RT&M integrates skill over a matrix of ramp events of varying amplitudes and durations.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Collection(s):
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
    1. Evaluation of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast in reanalysis data sets
      Personal Author:
      Jackson, D. L.; Hughes, M.; Wick, G. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(6), 2705-2718.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.51 MB]
    2. Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 9.93 MB]
    3. Radar Rain-Rate Estimators and Their Variability due to Rainfall Type: An Assessment Based on Hydrometeorology Testbed Data from the Southeastern United States
      Personal Author:
      Matrosov, S. Y.; Cifelli, R.; Neiman, P. J.; White, A. B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.41 MB]
    4. Observations of the Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during Intensity Change. Part I: Relationship between the Thermodynamic Structure and Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Zawislak, J.; Jiang, H. Y.; Alvey, G. R.; Zipser, E. J.; Rogers, R. F.; Zhang, J. A.; Stevenson, S. N.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.96 MB]
    5. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Personal Author:
      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    6. Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
      Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
      Personal Author:
      Thorarinsdottir, T. L.; Scheuerer, M.; Heinz, C.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 25(1), 105-122.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Any decision-making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily requires a calibrated forecast. This article proposes new methods for empirically assessing forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the prob...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 40.72 KB]
    7. Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity Intrusions during Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
      Personal Author:
      Albers, J. R.; Kiladis, G. N.; Birner, T.; Dias, J.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(6), 2361-2384.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The intrusion of lower-stratospheric extratropical potential vorticity into the tropical upper troposphere in the weeks surrounding the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is examined. The analysis reveals that SSW-related PV intrusion...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 13.73 MB]
    8. The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irene to Aerosols and Ocean Coupling: Simulations with WRF Spectral Bin Microphysics
      The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irene to Aerosols and Ocean Coupling: Simulations with WRF Spectral Bin Microphysics
      Personal Author:
      Lynn, B. H.; Khain, A. P.; Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Yuan, T.; Kelman, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Shpund, J.; Benmoshe, N.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(2), 467-486.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, the hurricane weakened much faster than was predicted. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurr...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    9. Mountain waves and orographic precipitation in a northern Colorado winter storm
      Mountain waves and orographic precipitation in a northern Colorado winter storm
      Personal Author:
      Kingsmill, D. E.; Persson, P. O. G.; Haimov, S.; Shupe, M. D.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(695), 836-853.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study characterizes mountain waves and orographic precipitation associated with a winter storm passing over the approximate to 3.5 km above mean sea level (MSL) Park Range of northern Colorado on 15 December 2010. Observations from an airborne v...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 53.70 KB]
    10. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5)
      Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5)
      Personal Author:
      Li, F.; Vikhliaev, Y. V.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.; Waugh, D. W.; Douglass, A. R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(9), 3199-3218.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the pres...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    11. Understanding the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States
      Personal Author:
      Mahoney, K.; Jackson, D. L.; Neiman, P.; Hughes, M.; Darby, L.; Wick, G.; White, A.; Sukovich, E.; Cifelli, R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1617-1632.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water va...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.36 MB]
    12. A Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      A Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      Personal Author:
      Lei, L. L.; Whitaker, J. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    13. Examining moisture pathways and extreme precipitation in the US Intermountain West using self-organizing maps
      Personal Author:
      Swales, D.; Alexander, M.; Hughes, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(4), 1727-1735.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were used to explore relationships between large-scale synoptic conditions, especially vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT), and extreme precipitation events in the U.S. Intermountain West (IMW). By examining ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.05 MB]
    14. Does El Nino intensity matter for California precipitation?
      Personal Author:
      Hoell, A.; Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Wolter, K.; Dole, R.; Perlwitz, J.; Xu, T. Y.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(2), 819-825.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The sensitivity of California precipitation to El Nino intensity is investigated by applying a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations to estimate how November-April precipitation probability distributions vary across three categorizati...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.72 MB]
    15. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.58 MB]
    16. The Climate Change Web Portal: A System to Access and Display Climate and Earth System Model Output from the CMIP5 Archive
      Personal Author:
      Scott, J. D.; Alexander, M. A.; Murray, D. R.; Swales, D.; Eischeid, J.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(4), 523-530.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.44 MB]
    17. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers, the Sierra Barrier Jet, and Extreme Daily Precipitation in Northern California's Upper Sacramento River Watershed
      Personal Author:
      Ralph, F. M.; Cordeira, J. M.; Neiman, P. J.; Hughes, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(7), 1905-1914.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The upper Sacramento River watershed is vital to California's water supply and is susceptible to major floods. Orographic precipitation in this complex terrain involves both atmospheric rivers (ARs) and the Sierra barrier jet (SBJ). The south-southea...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.19 MB]
    18. The Variability of ASCE Standardized Reference Evapotranspiration: A Rigorous, CONUS-Wide Decomposition and Attribution
      Personal Author:
      Hobbins, M. T.
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Transactions of the Asabe, 59(2), 561-576.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      To fully attribute the variability of reference evapotranspiration to its drivers, a mean-value, second-moment uncertainty analysis is applied to a 30-year, CONUS-wide reanalysis of daily and annual tall-crop reference evapotranspiration as estimated...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.20 MB]
    19. Reflectivity and Liquid Water Content Vertical Decomposition Diagrams to Diagnose Vertical Evolution of Raindrop Size Distributions
      Reflectivity and Liquid Water Content Vertical Decomposition Diagrams to Diagnose Vertical Evolution of Raindrop Size Distributions
      Personal Author:
      Williams, C. R.
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 33(3), 579-595.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study consists of two parts. The first part describes the way in which vertical air motions and raindrop size distributions (DSDs) were retrieved from 449-MHz and 2.835-GHz (UHF and S band) vertically pointing radars (VPRs) deployed side by side...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    20. The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in the Global Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss
      Personal Author:
      Tomas, R. A.; Deser, C.; Sun, L. T.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(19), 6841-6859.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The purpose of this study is to elucidate the individual and combined roles of thermodynamic and dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling in the equilibrium global climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss using a suite of experiments conducted with...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.28 MB]
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