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A Wind Energy Ramp Tool and Metric for Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Filetype[PDF-2.82 MB]


Details:
  • Personal Authors:
  • Description:
    A wind energy Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) has been developed out of recognition that during significant ramp events (large changes in wind power Delta p over short periods of time Delta t) it is more difficult to balance the electric load with power production than during quiescent periods between ramp events. A ramp specific metric is needed because standard metrics do not give special consideration to ramp events and hence may not provide an appropriate measure of model skill or skill improvement. This RT&M has three components. The first identifies ramp events in the power time series. The second matches in time forecast and observed ramps. The third determines a skill score of the forecast model. This is calculated from a utility operator's perspective, incorporates phase and duration errors in time as well as power amplitude errors, and recognizes that up and down ramps have different impacts on grid operation. The RT&M integrates skill over a matrix of ramp events of varying amplitudes and durations.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Collection(s):
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
  • Main Document Checksum:
    1. Reflectivity and Liquid Water Content Vertical Decomposition Diagrams to Diagnose Vertical Evolution of Raindrop Size Distributions
      Reflectivity and Liquid Water Content Vertical Decomposition Diagrams to Diagnose Vertical Evolution of Raindrop Size Distributions
      Personal Author:
      Williams, C. R.
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 33(3), 579-595.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study consists of two parts. The first part describes the way in which vertical air motions and raindrop size distributions (DSDs) were retrieved from 449-MHz and 2.835-GHz (UHF and S band) vertically pointing radars (VPRs) deployed side by side...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    2. The relationships between insoluble precipitation residues, clouds, and precipitation over California's southern Sierra Nevada during winter storms
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      Creamean, J. M.; White, A. B.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D. A.; Prather, K. A.;
      Published:
      2016
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      Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.82 MB]
    3. The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irene to Aerosols and Ocean Coupling Simulations with WRF Spectral Bin Microphysics
      The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irene to Aerosols and Ocean Coupling: Simulations with WRF Spectral Bin Microphysics
      Personal Author:
      Lynn, B. H.; Khain, A. P.; Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Yuan, T.; Kelman, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Shpund, J.; Benmoshe, N.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(2), 467-486.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, the hurricane weakened much faster than was predicted. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurr...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    4. Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity Intrusions during Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
      Personal Author:
      Albers, J. R.; Kiladis, G. N.; Birner, T.; Dias, J.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(6), 2361-2384.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The intrusion of lower-stratospheric extratropical potential vorticity into the tropical upper troposphere in the weeks surrounding the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is examined. The analysis reveals that SSW-related PV intrusion...
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      Filetype[PDF - 13.73 MB]
    5. Toward autonomous surface-based infrared remote sensing of polar clouds: cloud-height retrievals
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      Rowe, P. M.; Cox, C. J.; Walden, V.;
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      2016
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      Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 9(8), 3641-3659.
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      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Polar regions are characterized by their remoteness, making measurements challenging, but an improved knowledge of clouds and radiation is necessary to understand polar climate change. Infrared radiance spectrometers can operate continuously from the...
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      Filetype[PDF - 796.95 KB]
    6. A FourDimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      A Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      Personal Author:
      Lei, L. L.; Whitaker, J. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    7. Future costcompetitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
      Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
      Personal Author:
      MacDonald, A. E.; Clack, C. T. M.; Alexander, A.; Dunbar, A.; Wilczak, J.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 526-531.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are a major cause of anthropogenic climate change. The deployment of wind and solar power reduces these emissions, but is subject to the variability of the weather. In the present study, we calcula...
    8. Understanding the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States
      Personal Author:
      Mahoney, K.; Jackson, D. L.; Neiman, P.; Hughes, M.; Darby, L.; Wick, G.; White, A.; Sukovich, E.; Cifelli, R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1617-1632.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water va...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.36 MB]
    9. Radar Rain-Rate Estimators and Their Variability due to Rainfall Type: An Assessment Based on Hydrometeorology Testbed Data from the Southeastern United States
      Personal Author:
      Matrosov, S. Y.; Cifelli, R.; Neiman, P. J.; White, A. B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.41 MB]
    10. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted RegressionCorrected Forecasts
      Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Personal Author:
      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    11. The Climate Change Web Portal: A System to Access and Display Climate and Earth System Model Output from the CMIP5 Archive
      Personal Author:
      Scott, J. D.; Alexander, M. A.; Murray, D. R.; Swales, D.; Eischeid, J.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(4), 523-530.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.44 MB]
    12. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 GEOS5
      Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5)
      Personal Author:
      Li, F.; Vikhliaev, Y. V.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.; Waugh, D. W.; Douglass, A. R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(9), 3199-3218.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the pres...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    13. Modifications to the Rapid Update Cycle Land Surface Model (RUC LSM) Available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
      Personal Author:
      Smirnova, T. G.; Brown, J. M.; Benjamin, S. G.; Kenyon, J. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(5), 1851-1865.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The land surface model (LSM) described in this manuscript was originally developed as part of the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model development effort; with ongoing modifications, it is now used as an option for the WRF community model. The RUC mod...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.07 MB]
    14. The Role of Springtime Arctic Clouds in Determining Autumn Sea Ice Extent
      Personal Author:
      Cox, C. J.; Uttal, T.; Long, C. N.; Shupe, M. D.; Stone, R. S.; Starkweather, S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6581-6596.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Recent studies suggest that the atmosphere conditions arctic sea ice properties in spring in a way that may be an important factor in predetermining autumn sea ice concentrations. Here, the role of clouds in this system is analyzed using surface-base...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.18 MB]
    15. Pathways to the Production of Precipitating Hydrometeors and Tropical Cyclone Development
      Personal Author:
      Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Grell, E. D.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(6), 2395-2420.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Pathways to the production of precipitation in two cloud microphysics schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are investigated in a scenario of tropical cyclone intensification. Comparisons of the results from the WRF Mo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 4.10 MB]
    16. The Physics of Drought in the US Central Great Plains
      The Physics of Drought in the US Central Great Plains
      Personal Author:
      Livneh, B.; Hoerling, M. P.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(18), 6783-6804.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The semiarid U.S. Great Plains is prone to severe droughts having major consequences for agricultural production, livestock health, and river navigation. The recent 2012 event was accompanied by record deficits in precipitation and high temperatures ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    17. Observations of the Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during Intensity Change. Part I: Relationship between the Thermodynamic Structure and Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Zawislak, J.; Jiang, H. Y.; Alvey, G. R.; Zipser, E. J.; Rogers, R. F.; Zhang, J. A.; Stevenson, S. N.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.96 MB]
    18. A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
      Personal Author:
      Benjamin, S. G.; Weygandt, S. S.; Brown, J. M.; Hu, M.; Alexander, C. R.; Smirnova, T. G.; Olson, J. B.; James, E. P.; Dowell, D. C.; Grell, G. A.; Lin, H. D.; Peckham, S. E.; Smith, T. L.; Moninger, W. R.; Kenyon, J. S.; Manikin, G. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1669-1694.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    19. Evaluation of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast in reanalysis data sets
      Personal Author:
      Jackson, D. L.; Hughes, M.; Wick, G. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(6), 2705-2718.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.51 MB]
    20. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.58 MB]
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