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Evaluation of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast in reanalysis data sets
Filetype[PDF-2.51 MB]


Details:
  • Personal Author:
  • Description:
    An intercomparison of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) between four reanalysis data sets using one satellite-derived AR detection method as a metric to characterize landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the U.S. West Coast is performed over 15 cool seasons (October-March) during the period from water years 1998 to 2012. The four reanalysis data sets analyzed in this study are the Climate System Forecast Reanalysis (CFSR), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), ERA-Interim (ERA-I), and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2 (20CR) data set. The Atmospheric River Detection Tool is used to identify AR features in the total vertically integrated water vapor (IWV) data of the reanalysis data, and validation of the reanalysis AR data are compared with AR data derived from satellite IWV observations. The AR landfall data from reanalysis were generally found to be in good agreement with satellite observations. Reanalysis data with less (CFSR) or no assimilation (20CR) of the satellite data used in this study had greater bias with AR characteristics such as IWV, width, and landfall location. The 20CR ensemble data were found to better characterize the AR landfall characteristics than the 20CR ensemble mean although all 20CR data underestimated AR landfalls particularly in the southern section of the U.S. West Coast. Overall AR landfall detections for the 15year cool season period were within 5% of the satellite for the CFSR, MERRA, and ERA-I data.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant No: NOAA-OAR-CPO-2012-2003041
  • Collection(s):
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
    NOAA Cooperative Institutes
  • Main Document Checksum:
    1. The relationships between insoluble precipitation residues, clouds, and precipitation over California's southern Sierra Nevada during winter storms
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      Creamean, J. M.; White, A. B.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D. A.; Prather, K. A.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Environment, 140, 298-310.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ice formation in orographic mixed -phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for reg...
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    2. THE EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION SUITE Toward a Coordinated US Modeling Capability
      Personal Author:
      Theurich, G.; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.; Liu, F.; Saint, K.; Vertenstein, M.; Chen, J.; Oehmke, R.; Doyle, J.; Whitcomb, T.; Wallcraft, A.; Iredell, M.; Black, T.; da Silva, A. M.; Clune, T.; Ferraro, R.; Li, P.; Kelley, M.; Aleinov, I.; Balaji, V.; Zadeh, N.; Jacob, R.; Kirtman, B.; Giraldo, F.; McCarren, D.; Sandgathe, S.; Peckham, S.; Dunlap, R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(7), 1229-1247.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.30 MB]
    3. The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in the Global Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss
      Personal Author:
      Tomas, R. A.; Deser, C.; Sun, L. T.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(19), 6841-6859.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The purpose of this study is to elucidate the individual and combined roles of thermodynamic and dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling in the equilibrium global climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss using a suite of experiments conducted with...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.28 MB]
    4. The Variability of ASCE Standardized Reference Evapotranspiration: A Rigorous, CONUS-Wide Decomposition and Attribution
      Personal Author:
      Hobbins, M. T.
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Transactions of the Asabe, 59(2), 561-576.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      To fully attribute the variability of reference evapotranspiration to its drivers, a mean-value, second-moment uncertainty analysis is applied to a 30-year, CONUS-wide reanalysis of daily and annual tall-crop reference evapotranspiration as estimated...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.20 MB]
    5. Microwave signatures of ice hydrometeors from ground-based observations above Summit, Greenland
      Personal Author:
      Pettersen, C.; Bennartz, R.; Kulie, M. S.; Merrelli, A. J.; Shupe, M. D.; Turner, D. D.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(7), 4743-4756.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Multi-instrument, ground-based measurements provide unique and comprehensive data sets of the atmosphere for a specific location over long periods of time and resulting data compliment past and existing global satellite observations. This paper explo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.48 MB]
    6. Radar Rain-Rate Estimators and Their Variability due to Rainfall Type: An Assessment Based on Hydrometeorology Testbed Data from the Southeastern United States
      Personal Author:
      Matrosov, S. Y.; Cifelli, R.; Neiman, P. J.; White, A. B.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(6), 1345-1358.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      S-band profiling (S-PROF) radar measurements from different southeastern U.S. Hydrometeorology Testbed sites indicated a frequent occurrence of rain that did not exhibit radar bright band (BB) and was observed outside the periods of deep-convective p...
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    7. Does El Nino intensity matter for California precipitation?
      Personal Author:
      Hoell, A.; Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Wolter, K.; Dole, R.; Perlwitz, J.; Xu, T. Y.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(2), 819-825.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The sensitivity of California precipitation to El Nino intensity is investigated by applying a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations to estimate how November-April precipitation probability distributions vary across three categorizati...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.72 MB]
    8. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers, the Sierra Barrier Jet, and Extreme Daily Precipitation in Northern California's Upper Sacramento River Watershed
      Personal Author:
      Ralph, F. M.; Cordeira, J. M.; Neiman, P. J.; Hughes, M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17(7), 1905-1914.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The upper Sacramento River watershed is vital to California's water supply and is susceptible to major floods. Orographic precipitation in this complex terrain involves both atmospheric rivers (ARs) and the Sierra barrier jet (SBJ). The south-southea...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.19 MB]
    9. Reflectivity and Liquid Water Content Vertical Decomposition Diagrams to Diagnose Vertical Evolution of Raindrop Size Distributions
      Personal Author:
      Williams, C. R.
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 33(3), 579-595.
      Description:
      This study consists of two parts. The first part describes the way in which vertical air motions and raindrop size distributions (DSDs) were retrieved from 449-MHz and 2.835-GHz (UHF and S band) vertically pointing radars (VPRs) deployed side by side...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.16 MB]
    10. Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity Intrusions during Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
      Personal Author:
      Albers, J. R.; Kiladis, G. N.; Birner, T.; Dias, J.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(6), 2361-2384.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The intrusion of lower-stratospheric extratropical potential vorticity into the tropical upper troposphere in the weeks surrounding the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is examined. The analysis reveals that SSW-related PV intrusion...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 13.73 MB]
    11. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.58 MB]
    12. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5)
      Personal Author:
      Li, F.; Vikhliaev, Y. V.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.; Waugh, D. W.; Douglass, A. R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(9), 3199-3218.
      Description:
      Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the pres...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.98 MB]
    13. Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 9.93 MB]
    14. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Personal Author:
      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.90 MB]
    15. The Sensitivity of Hurricane Irene to Aerosols and Ocean Coupling: Simulations with WRF Spectral Bin Microphysics
      Personal Author:
      Lynn, B. H.; Khain, A. P.; Bao, J. W.; Michelson, S. A.; Yuan, T.; Kelman, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Shpund, J.; Benmoshe, N.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(2), 467-486.
      Description:
      Hurricane Irene (2011) moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and was expected to cause severe wind and flood damage. However, the hurricane weakened much faster than was predicted. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurr...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 4.12 MB]
    16. Examining moisture pathways and extreme precipitation in the US Intermountain West using self-organizing maps
      Personal Author:
      Swales, D.; Alexander, M.; Hughes, M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(4), 1727-1735.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were used to explore relationships between large-scale synoptic conditions, especially vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT), and extreme precipitation events in the U.S. Intermountain West (IMW). By examining ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.05 MB]
    17. International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere: An International Polar Year Legacy Consortium
      Personal Author:
      Uttal, T.; Starkweather, S.; Drummond, J. R.; Vihma, T.; Makshtas, A. P.; Darby, L. S.; Burkhart, J. F.; Cox, C. J.; Schmeisser, L. N.; Haiden, T.; Maturilli, M.; Shupe, M. D.; De Boer, G.; Saha, A.; Grachev, A. A.; Crepinsek, S. M.; Bruhwiler, L.; Goodison, B.; McArthur, B.; Walden, V. P.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Persson, P. O. G.; Lesins, G.; Laurila, T.; Ogren, J. A.; Stone, R.; Long, C. N.; Sharma, S.; Massling, A.; Turner, D. D.; Stanitski, D. M.; Asmi, E.; Aurela, M.; Skov, H.; Eleftheriadis, K.; Virkkula, A.; Platt, A.; Forland, E. J.; Iijima, Y.; Nielsen, I. E.; Bergin, M. H.; Candlish, L.; Zimov, N. S.; Zimov, S. A.; O'Neill, N. T.; Fogal, P. F.; Kivi, R.; Konopleva-Akish, E. A.; Verlinde, J.; Kustov, V. Y.; Vasel, B.; Ivakhov, V. M.; Viisanen, Y.; Intrieri, J. M.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(6), 1033-1056.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA) activities and partnerships were initiated as a part of the 2007-09 International Polar Year (IPY) and are expected to continue for many decades as a legacy program. The IASOA focus is...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.17 MB]
    18. A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
      Personal Author:
      Benjamin, S. G.; Weygandt, S. S.; Brown, J. M.; Hu, M.; Alexander, C. R.; Smirnova, T. G.; Olson, J. B.; James, E. P.; Dowell, D. C.; Grell, G. A.; Lin, H. D.; Peckham, S. E.; Smith, T. L.; Moninger, W. R.; Kenyon, J. S.; Manikin, G. S.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1669-1694.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    19. Observations of the Structure and Evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during Intensity Change. Part I: Relationship between the Thermodynamic Structure and Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Zawislak, J.; Jiang, H. Y.; Alvey, G. R.; Zipser, E. J.; Rogers, R. F.; Zhang, J. A.; Stevenson, S. N.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(9), 3333-3354.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The structural evolution of the inner core and near environment throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) is examined using a synthesis of airborne and satellite measurements. This study specifically focuses on the precipitation evolution...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.96 MB]
    20. Understanding the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States
      Personal Author:
      Mahoney, K.; Jackson, D. L.; Neiman, P.; Hughes, M.; Darby, L.; Wick, G.; White, A.; Sukovich, E.; Cifelli, R.;
      Published Date:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1617-1632.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water va...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.36 MB]
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