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Examining moisture pathways and extreme precipitation in the US Intermountain West using self-organizing maps
  • Published Date:
    2016
  • Source:
    Geophysical Research Letters, 43(4), 1727-1735.
Filetype[PDF-7.05 MB]


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Examining moisture pathways and extreme precipitation in the US Intermountain West using self-organizing maps
Details:
  • Personal Authors:
  • Series:
    CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
  • Description:
    Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were used to explore relationships between large-scale synoptic conditions, especially vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT), and extreme precipitation events in the U.S. Intermountain West (IMW). By examining spatial patterns in the IVT, pathways are identified where moisture can penetrate into the IMW. A substantial number of extreme precipitation events in the IMW are associated with infrequently occurring synoptic patterns. The transition frequency between each of the SOM nodes, which indicate temporal relationships between the patterns, identified two synoptic settings associated with extreme precipitation in the IMW: (1) a landfalling, zonally propagating trough that results in a concentrated IVT band that moves southward as the system moves inland and (2) a southwesterly storm track associated with strong ridging over the coast that results in persistent IVT transport into the Pacific Northwest that can last for several days.

  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Collection(s):
    Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
    1. Pathways to the Production of Precipitating Hydrometeors and Tropical Cyclone Development
      Personal Author:
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      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(6), 2395-2420.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Pathways to the production of precipitation in two cloud microphysics schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are investigated in a scenario of tropical cyclone intensification. Comparisons of the results from the WRF Mo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 4.10 MB]
    2. What caused the recent "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern in winter temperatures?
      Personal Author:
      Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Research Letters, 43(10), 5345-5352.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It has been speculated that this "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use m...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.72 MB]
    3. THE EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION SUITE Toward a Coordinated US Modeling Capability
      Personal Author:
      Theurich, G.; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.; Liu, F.; Saint, K.; Vertenstein, M.; Chen, J.; Oehmke, R.; Doyle, J.; Whitcomb, T.; Wallcraft, A.; Iredell, M.; Black, T.; da Silva, A. M.; Clune, T.; Ferraro, R.; Li, P.; Kelley, M.; Aleinov, I.; Balaji, V.; Zadeh, N.; Jacob, R.; Kirtman, B.; Giraldo, F.; McCarren, D.; Sandgathe, S.; Peckham, S.; Dunlap, R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(7), 1229-1247.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.30 MB]
    4. BRIDGING RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS TRANSITIONS Status and Plans of Community GSI
      Personal Author:
      Shao, H.; Derber, J.; Huang, X. Y.; Hu, M.; Newman, K.; Stark, D.; Lueken, M.; Zhou, C. H.; Nance, L.; Kuo, Y. H.; Brown, B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(8), 1427-+.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      With a goal of improving operational numerical weather prediction (NWP), the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) has been working with operational centers, including, among others, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oce...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1001.70 KB]
    5. Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
      Assessing the Calibration of High-Dimensional Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms
      Personal Author:
      Thorarinsdottir, T. L.; Scheuerer, M.; Heinz, C.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 25(1), 105-122.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Any decision-making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily requires a calibrated forecast. This article proposes new methods for empirically assessing forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the prob...
      File Type:
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    6. A Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      A Four-Dimensional Incremental Analysis Update for the Ensemble Kalman Filter
      Personal Author:
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      Published:
      2016
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      Monthly Weather Review, 144(7), 2605-2621.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The analysis produced by the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) may be dynamically inconsistent and contain unbalanced gravity waves that are absent in the real atmosphere. These imbalances can be exacerbated by covariance localization and inflation. One ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    7. Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
      Personal Author:
      Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X. W.; Wolter, K.; Cheng, L. Y.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(7), 2313-2332.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979-2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increase...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 9.93 MB]
    8. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited
      Personal Author:
      Newman, M.; Alexander, M. A.; Ault, T. R.; Cobb, K. M.; Deser, C.; Di Lorenzo, E.; Mantua, N. J.; Miller, A. J.; Minobe, S.; Nakamura, H.; Schneider, N.; Vimont, D. J.; Phillips, A. S.; Scott, J. D.; Smith, C. A.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(12), 4399-4427.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within the meteorological and climate dynamics communities and is ce...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.80 MB]
    9. A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh
      Personal Author:
      Benjamin, S. G.; Weygandt, S. S.; Brown, J. M.; Hu, M.; Alexander, C. R.; Smirnova, T. G.; Olson, J. B.; James, E. P.; Dowell, D. C.; Grell, G. A.; Lin, H. D.; Peckham, S. E.; Smith, T. L.; Moninger, W. R.; Kenyon, J. S.; Manikin, G. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1669-1694.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental ...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.13 MB]
    10. Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Inaccuracies with Multimodel Postprocessing Methods Involving Weighted, Regression-Corrected Forecasts
      Personal Author:
      Hodyss, D.; Satterfield, E.; McLay, J.; Hamill, T. M.; Scheuerer, M.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1649-1668.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Ensemble postprocessing is frequently applied to correct biases and deficiencies in the spread of ensemble forecasts. Methods involving weighted, regression-corrected forecasts address the typical biases and under-dispersion of ensembles through a re...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 58.60 KB]
    11. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6
      Personal Author:
      Pincus, R.; Forster, P. M.; Stevens, B.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3447-3460.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 - "How does the Earth system respond to forcing?" - suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in c...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 158.64 KB]
    12. Rapid Mesoscale Environmental Changes Accompanying Genesis of an Unusual Tornado
      Personal Author:
      Koch, S. E.; Ware, R.; Jiang, H. L.; Xie, Y. F.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(3), 763-786.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      This study documents a very rapid increase in convective instability, vertical wind shear, and mesoscale forcing for ascent leading to the formation of a highly unusual tornado as detected by a ground-based microwave radiometer and wind profiler, and...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 7.58 MB]
    13. The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in the Global Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss
      Personal Author:
      Tomas, R. A.; Deser, C.; Sun, L. T.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(19), 6841-6859.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The purpose of this study is to elucidate the individual and combined roles of thermodynamic and dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling in the equilibrium global climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss using a suite of experiments conducted with...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 3.28 MB]
    14. Understanding the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States
      Personal Author:
      Mahoney, K.; Jackson, D. L.; Neiman, P.; Hughes, M.; Darby, L.; Wick, G.; White, A.; Sukovich, E.; Cifelli, R.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(4), 1617-1632.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      An analysis of atmospheric rivers (ARs) as defined by an automated AR detection tool based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and the connection to heavy precipitation in the southeast United States (SEUS) is performed. Climatological water va...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 2.36 MB]
    15. Modifications to the Rapid Update Cycle Land Surface Model (RUC LSM) Available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
      Personal Author:
      Smirnova, T. G.; Brown, J. M.; Benjamin, S. G.; Kenyon, J. S.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Monthly Weather Review, 144(5), 1851-1865.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      The land surface model (LSM) described in this manuscript was originally developed as part of the NOAA Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model development effort; with ongoing modifications, it is now used as an option for the WRF community model. The RUC mod...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 5.07 MB]
    16. The POWER Experiment: Impact of Assimilation of a Network of Coastal Wind Profiling Radars on Simulating Offshore Winds in and above the Wind Turbine Layer
      Personal Author:
      Djalalova, I. V.; Olson, J.; Carley, J. R.; Bianco, L.; Wilczak, J. M.; Pichugina, Y.; Banta, R.; Marquis, M.; Cline, J.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Weather and Forecasting, 31(4), 1071-1091.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      During the summer of 2004 a network of 11 wind profiling radars (WPRs) was deployed in New England as part of the New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Observations from this dataset are used to determine their impact on numerical weather prediction...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 6.12 MB]
    17. A Five-Century Reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands Winter Rainfall
      Personal Author:
      Diaz, H. F.; Wahl, E. R.; Zorita, E.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Eischeid, J. K.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Journal of Climate, 29(15), 5661-5674.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Few if any high-resolution (annually resolved) paleoclimate records are available for the Hawaiian Islands prior to; similar to 1850 CE, after which some instrumental records start to become available. This paper shows how atmospheric teleconnection ...
      File Type:
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    18. Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery
      Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery
      Personal Author:
      Pershing, A. J.; Alexander, M. A.; Hernandez, C. M.; Kerr, L. A.; Le Bris, A.; Mills, K. E.; Nye, J. A.; Record, N. R.; Scannell, H. A.; Scott, J. D.; Sherwood, G. D.; Thomass, A. C.;
      Published:
      2015
      Source:
      Science, 350(6262), 809-812.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Several studies have documented fish populations changing in response to long-term warming. Over the past decade, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Maine increased faster than 99% of the global ocean. The warming, which was related to a northwa...
      File Type:
      Filetype[BIN - 205.04 KB]
    19. Ocean acoustic remote sensing using ambient noise: results from the Florida Straits
      Personal Author:
      Brown, M. G.; Godin, O. A.; Zang, X.; Ball, J. S.; Zabotin, N. A.; Zabotina, L. Y.; Williams, N. J.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Geophysical Journal International, 206(1), 574-589.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Noise interferometry is the process by which approximations to acoustic Green's functions, which describe sound propagation between two locations, are estimated by cross-correlating time series of ambient noise measured at those locations. Noise-inte...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 11.38 MB]
    20. Microwave signatures of ice hydrometeors from ground-based observations above Summit, Greenland
      Personal Author:
      Pettersen, C.; Bennartz, R.; Kulie, M. S.; Merrelli, A. J.; Shupe, M. D.; Turner, D. D.;
      Published:
      2016
      Source:
      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(7), 4743-4756.
      Series:
      CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
      Description:
      Multi-instrument, ground-based measurements provide unique and comprehensive data sets of the atmosphere for a specific location over long periods of time and resulting data compliment past and existing global satellite observations. This paper explo...
      File Type:
      Filetype[PDF - 1.48 MB]
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