i
Predictability of mid-summer Great Plains low-level jet and associated precipitation
-
2019
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 215-235. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0103.1.xml
[PDF-5.68 MB]
Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed
Details:
-
Journal Title:Weather and Forecasting
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Warm-season precipitation in the U.S. Corn Belt," the Great Plains, and the Midwest greatly influences agricultural production and is subject to high interannual and intraseasonal variability. Unfortunately, current seasonal and subseasonal forecasts for summer precipitation have relatively low skill. Therefore, there are ongoing efforts to understand hydroclimate variability targeted at improving predictions, particularly through its primary transporter of moisture: the Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ). This study uses the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), July forecasts, made as part of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), to assess skill in reproducing the monthly Great Plains LLJ and associated precipitation. Generally, the CCSM4 forecasts capture the climatological jet but have problems representing the observed variability beyond two weeks. In addition, there are predictors associated with the large-scale variability identified through linear regression analysis, shifts in kernel density estimators, and case study analysis that suggest potential for improving confidence in forecasts. In this study, a strengthened Caribbean LLJ, negative Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection, El Nino, and a negative Atlantic multidecadal oscillation each have a relatively strong and consistent relationship with a strengthened Great Plains LLJ. The circulation predictors, the Caribbean LLJ and PNA, present the greatest "forecast of opportunity" for considering and assigning confidence in monthly forecasts."
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 215-235. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0103.1.xml
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Place as Subject:
-
Rights Information:CC BY
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:c962116181389a1a8960e5d2fef69638cad630063c9fb7c88a6da03bd9eeb3b2
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
Personal Author:Arcodia, Marybeth C. ;Kirtman, Ben P....2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4621-4640. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0448.1.xmlDescription:A composite analysis reveals how the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-troposp...Personal Author:Kim, Dongmin ;Lee, Sang-Ki...2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4927-4939. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0992.1.xmlDescription:This study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on U.S. tornadogenesis using atmospheric reanalysis and model experiments....Personal Author:Topál, Dániel ;Ding, Qinghua...2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7431-7454. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/17/jcliD190803.xDescription:Arctic sea ice melting processes in summer due to internal atmospheric variability have recently received considerable attention. A regional barotropi...Personal Author:Tseng, Kai-Chih ;Maloney, Eric...2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3471-3486. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/9/jcli-d-19-0510.1.xmlDescription:The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical geopotential heights that modulate extratropical weather, making the ...Personal Author:Orbe, Clara ;Van Roekel, Luke...2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7431-7454.Description:We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six US climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in r...2020 | Remote Sens. 2020, 12(4), 645;Description:Surface albedo has a significant impact in determining the amount of available net radiation at the surface and the evolution of surface water and ene...The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulationCitePersonal Author:Tseng, Kai-Chih ;Barnes, Elizabeth A....2019 | Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2131-2147.Description:The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Many previous...2019 | Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14063– 14071.Description:Recent studies suggest that frequency of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific, that is...2020 | Atmos Sci Lett. 2020; 21:e984. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.984Description:Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of h...2020 | Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Atmospheres,125,e2018JD029375.Description:Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between daily weather forecasts...2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,125, e2019JD031899.Description:Analyzing a long simulation and a set of seasonal reforecasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), this study demonstrates a large model ...Personal Author:Materia, Stefano ;Muñoz, Ángel G....2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 237-254. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0086.1.xmlDescription:Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this...Multi-Year Hybrid Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Predictability SourcesCitePersonal Author:Chang, Chuan-Chieh ;Wang, Zhuo2019 | Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2263-2279. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/6/jcli-d-19-0475.1.xmlDescription:A hybrid statistical-dynamical model is developed to predict multiyear variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A Poisson model takes s...2019 | Geophysical ResearchLetters,46, 13,992–14,002.Description:The intensity and spatial extent of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) often shapes the risk posed by landfalling storms. Here we provide a comprehe...2019 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,124, 11,766–11,782.Description:The impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of tropical intraseasonal convection, including the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJ...2020 | Journal ofAdvances in Modeling Earth Systems,12, e2019MS001878. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001878Description:The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution ...2020 | Commun Earth Environ 1, 9 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0008-8Description:Sea level variability increasingly contributes to coastal flooding and erosion as global sea levels rise, partly due to the thermal expansion of seawa...2019 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 12057– 12077. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031252Description:In this study, the prediction of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity from subseasonal to seasonal timescale in current dynamical models' reforec...Personal Author:Shin, Chul-Su ;Dirmeyer, Paul A....2020 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(9), 2101-2121. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/21/9/jhm-d-20-0024.1.xmlDescription:The NCEP CFSv2 ensemble reforecasts initialized with different land surface analyses for the period of 1979–2010 have been conducted to assess the e...2020 | Geophysical Research Letters,47,e2020GL088851. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088851Description:Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant societal and economic impacts, as 2019's Dorian serves to remind us of these storms' destructiv...
More +
You May Also Like
2023 | J. Hydrometeor., 24, 479–495
Description:
Uncertainty in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models manifests in errors in the amounts of rainfa...
Personal Author:
Carr, Rachel Hogan ;
Semmens, Kathryn
...
2021 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(10), E1878-E1896
Description:
Uncertainty is everywhere and understanding how individuals understand and use forecast information to make decisions given varying levels of certaint...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov