Sea level variability increasingly contributes to coastal flooding and erosion as global sea levels rise, partly due to the thermal expansion of seawater, which accelerates with increasing temperature. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas emissions suggest that future sea level variability, such as the annual and interannual oscillations that alter local astronomical tidal cycles and contribute to coastal impacts, will also increase in many regions. Here, we present an analysis of the CMIP5 climate model projections of future sea level to show that there is a tendency for a near-global increase in sea level variability with continued warming that is robust across models, regardless of whether ocean temperature variability increases. Specifically, for an upper-ocean warming by 2 °C, which is likely to be reached by the end of this century, sea level variability increases by 4 to 10% globally on seasonal-to-interannual timescales because of the nonlinear thermal expansion of seawater. As the oceans continue to warm, future ocean temperature oscillations will cause increasingly larger buoyancy-related sea level fluctuations that may alter coastal risks.
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4621-4640. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0448.1.xml
Description:
A composite analysis reveals how the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-troposp...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4927-4939. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0992.1.xml
Description:
This study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on U.S. tornadogenesis using atmospheric reanalysis and model experiments....
2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 215-235. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0103.1.xml
Description:
Warm-season precipitation in the U.S. Corn Belt," the Great Plains, and the Midwest greatly influences agricultural production and is subject to high ...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7431-7454. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/17/jcliD190803.x
Description:
Arctic sea ice melting processes in summer due to internal atmospheric variability have recently received considerable attention. A regional barotropi...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3471-3486. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/9/jcli-d-19-0510.1.xml
Description:
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical geopotential heights that modulate extratropical weather, making the ...
We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six US climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in r...
Surface albedo has a significant impact in determining the amount of available net radiation at the surface and the evolution of surface water and ene...
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Many previous...
2019 | Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14063– 14071.
Description:
Recent studies suggest that frequency of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific, that is...
2020 | Atmos Sci Lett. 2020; 21:e984. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.984
Description:
Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of h...
2020 | Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Atmospheres,125,e2018JD029375.
Description:
Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between daily weather forecasts...
2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,125, e2019JD031899.
Description:
Analyzing a long simulation and a set of seasonal reforecasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), this study demonstrates a large model ...
2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 237-254. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0086.1.xml
Description:
Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this...
2019 | Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2263-2279. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/6/jcli-d-19-0475.1.xml
Description:
A hybrid statistical-dynamical model is developed to predict multiyear variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A Poisson model takes s...
The intensity and spatial extent of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) often shapes the risk posed by landfalling storms. Here we provide a comprehe...
2019 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,124, 11,766–11,782.
Description:
The impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of tropical intraseasonal convection, including the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJ...
2020 | Journal ofAdvances in Modeling Earth Systems,12, e2019MS001878. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001878
Description:
The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution ...
In this study, the prediction of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity from subseasonal to seasonal timescale in current dynamical models' reforec...
2020 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(9), 2101-2121. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/21/9/jhm-d-20-0024.1.xml
Description:
The NCEP CFSv2 ensemble reforecasts initialized with different land surface analyses for the period of 1979–2010 have been conducted to assess the e...
2020 | Geophysical Research Letters,47,e2020GL088851. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088851
Description:
Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant societal and economic impacts, as 2019's Dorian serves to remind us of these storms' destructiv...
Continued sea-level rise (SLR) will exacerbate the issue where present, and many more locations will begin to experience recurrent high-tide flooding ...
Since the inception of the international South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation initiative in the 21st century, substantial advances have b...
Links with this icon indicate that you are leaving the NOAA website.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) cannot attest to the accuracy of a non-federal
website.
Linking to a non-federal Website does not constitute an
endorsement by NOAA or any of its employees of the sponsors
or the information and products presented on the website.
You will be subject to the destination website's privacy
policy when you follow the link.
NOAA is not responsible for Section 508 compliance
(accessibility) on other federal or private websites.