Details:

Journal Title:
Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:
Lyu, M. X. J. ; X. N. ; Wu, Z. W. ;
Lyu, M. X. J. ; X. N. ; Wu, Z. W. ; Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ;
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; Less -
Description:
Recent studies suggest that frequency of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific, that is, the MJO Phases 4-6 defined by the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index, has increased in recent winters. A robust positive trend in MJO Phase 4-6 days during 1979-2015 winters is confirmed in this study. Our analyses, however, suggest that this trend could be exaggerated due to the blended low-frequency variability signals in the RMM. When the winter RMM is reconstructed using anomalous fields after removing their winter mean instead of the previous 120-day mean as for the original RMM, the robust trend in MJO Phase 4-6 days can no longer be detected. Therefore, cautions need to be exercised when applying the RMM for studies on the low-frequency variability and climate trend in MJO activity and using the derived MJO variability to interpret associated changes in climate systems.
Keywords:
[+]
Arctic Amplification
Geology
Madden-Julian Oscillation
Mjo
MJO Index Climate Trend
Predictability
Prediction
Real-time Multivariate
Skill
Surface Air-temperature
Teleconnections
Tropical Cyclogenesis
Wintertime

Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14063– 14071.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086133
Document Type:
Journal Article ;
Funding:
Grant no. NA17OAR4310261 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310177 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310098 ;
Grant no. NA17OAR4310261 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310177 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310098 ; Less -
Place as Subject:
Arctic ;
Rights Information:
CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:
Submitted
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:a0e5e999831df9a0790f6382468b675cd56e72d8b3c9856d97ee86104c6439ca
File Type:

Supporting Files

• 	Available dataset	htm
  	Available dataset	htm

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