A Cautionary Note on the Long-term Trend in Activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation During the Past Decades

Lyu, M. X. J.; X. N.; Wu, Z. W.

doi:10.1029/2019GL086133

[PDF-1.30 MB]

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Personal Author:

Lyu, M. X. J. ; X. N. ; Wu, Z. W. ;

NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ;

Description:

Recent studies suggest that frequency of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific, that is, the MJO Phases 4-6 defined by the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index, has increased in recent winters. A robust positive trend in MJO Phase 4-6 days during 1979-2015 winters is confirmed in this study. Our analyses, however, suggest that this trend could be exaggerated due to the blended low-frequency variability signals in the RMM. When the winter RMM is reconstructed using anomalous fields after removing their winter mean instead of the previous 120-day mean as for the original RMM, the robust trend in MJO Phase 4-6 days can no longer be detected. Therefore, cautions need to be exercised when applying the RMM for studies on the low-frequency variability and climate trend in MJO activity and using the derived MJO variability to interpret associated changes in climate systems.

Keywords:

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086133

Document Type:

Journal Article

Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4310261 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310177 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310098 ;

Place as Subject:

Arctic

Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND

Main Document Checksum:

[+]

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Supporting Files:

	Available dataset	text/html
	Available dataset	text/html

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