Recent studies suggest that frequency of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific, that is, the MJO Phases 4-6 defined by the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index, has increased in recent winters. A robust positive trend in MJO Phase 4-6 days during 1979-2015 winters is confirmed in this study. Our analyses, however, suggest that this trend could be exaggerated due to the blended low-frequency variability signals in the RMM. When the winter RMM is reconstructed using anomalous fields after removing their winter mean instead of the previous 120-day mean as for the original RMM, the robust trend in MJO Phase 4-6 days can no longer be detected. Therefore, cautions need to be exercised when applying the RMM for studies on the low-frequency variability and climate trend in MJO activity and using the derived MJO variability to interpret associated changes in climate systems.
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4621-4640. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0448.1.xml
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A composite analysis reveals how the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-troposp...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4927-4939. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0992.1.xml
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This study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on U.S. tornadogenesis using atmospheric reanalysis and model experiments....
2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 215-235. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0103.1.xml
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Warm-season precipitation in the U.S. Corn Belt," the Great Plains, and the Midwest greatly influences agricultural production and is subject to high ...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7431-7454. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/17/jcliD190803.x
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Arctic sea ice melting processes in summer due to internal atmospheric variability have recently received considerable attention. A regional barotropi...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3471-3486. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/9/jcli-d-19-0510.1.xml
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The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical geopotential heights that modulate extratropical weather, making the ...
We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six US climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in r...
Surface albedo has a significant impact in determining the amount of available net radiation at the surface and the evolution of surface water and ene...
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Many previous...
2020 | Atmos Sci Lett. 2020; 21:e984. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.984
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Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of h...
2020 | Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Atmospheres,125,e2018JD029375.
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Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between daily weather forecasts...
2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,125, e2019JD031899.
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Analyzing a long simulation and a set of seasonal reforecasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), this study demonstrates a large model ...
2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 237-254. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0086.1.xml
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Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this...
2019 | Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2263-2279. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/6/jcli-d-19-0475.1.xml
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A hybrid statistical-dynamical model is developed to predict multiyear variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A Poisson model takes s...
The intensity and spatial extent of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) often shapes the risk posed by landfalling storms. Here we provide a comprehe...
2019 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,124, 11,766–11,782.
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The impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of tropical intraseasonal convection, including the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJ...
2020 | Journal ofAdvances in Modeling Earth Systems,12, e2019MS001878. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001878
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The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution ...
2020 | Commun Earth Environ 1, 9 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0008-8
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Sea level variability increasingly contributes to coastal flooding and erosion as global sea levels rise, partly due to the thermal expansion of seawa...
In this study, the prediction of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity from subseasonal to seasonal timescale in current dynamical models' reforec...
2020 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(9), 2101-2121. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/21/9/jhm-d-20-0024.1.xml
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The NCEP CFSv2 ensemble reforecasts initialized with different land surface analyses for the period of 1979–2010 have been conducted to assess the e...
2020 | Geophysical Research Letters,47,e2020GL088851. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088851
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Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant societal and economic impacts, as 2019's Dorian serves to remind us of these storms' destructiv...