A Cautionary Note on the Long-term Trend in Activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation During the Past Decades

Lyu, Mengxia; Jiang, Xianan; Wu, Zhiwei

doi:10.1029/2019GL086133

i

A Cautionary Note on the Long-term Trend in Activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation During the Past Decades

2019
By Lyu, Mengxia ; Jiang, Xianan ; Wu, Zhiwei

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Lyu, Mengxia ; Jiang, Xianan ; Wu, Zhiwei
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)
Description:

Recent studies suggest that frequency of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific, that is, the MJO Phases 4-6 defined by the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index, has increased in recent winters. A robust positive trend in MJO Phase 4-6 days during 1979-2015 winters is confirmed in this study. Our analyses, however, suggest that this trend could be exaggerated due to the blended low-frequency variability signals in the RMM. When the winter RMM is reconstructed using anomalous fields after removing their winter mean instead of the previous 120-day mean as for the original RMM, the robust trend in MJO Phase 4-6 days can no longer be detected. Therefore, cautions need to be exercised when applying the RMM for studies on the low-frequency variability and climate trend in MJO activity and using the derived MJO variability to interpret associated changes in climate systems.
Keywords:

Arctic Amplification Geology Madden-Julian Oscillation Mjo MJO Index Climate Trend Predictability Prediction Real-time Multivariate Skill Surface Air-temperature Teleconnections Tropical Cyclogenesis Wintertime Arctic Amplification MJO Index Climate Trend Real-time Multivariate Surface Air-temperature Tropical Cyclogenesis
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14063– 14071.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086133
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17OAR4310261 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310177 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4310098
Place as Subject:

Arctic
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:a0e5e999831df9a0790f6382468b675cd56e72d8b3c9856d97ee86104c6439ca
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28669/noaa_28669_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.30 MB ]

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