The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulation

Tseng, Kai-Chih; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Maloney, Eric

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0512.1

Advanced Search

Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

Advanced Search
Custom Query

All these words:

For very narrow results

This exact word or phrase:

When looking for a specific result

Any of these words:

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

None of these words:

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Language:

Dates

Publication Date Range:

to

Document Data

Title:

Document Type:

Library

Collection:

Series:

People

Author:

Clear All

Query Builder

Query box

Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulation

2019
By Tseng, Kai-Chih ; Barnes, Elizabeth A. ; Maloney, Eric
Source: Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2131-2147.

[PDF-5.95 MB]

Select the Download button to view the document

This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed

Details Related Documents You May Also Like

Details:

Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Tseng, Kai-Chih ; Barnes, Elizabeth A. ; Maloney, Eric

Tseng, Kai-Chih ; Barnes, Elizabeth A. ; Maloney, Eric Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Many previous studies have explored the impact of the present state of the MJO on the future evolution and predictability of extratropical weather patterns. What is still unclear, however, is the importance of the accumulated influence of past MJO activity on these results. In this study, the importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of extratropical circulations is examined by using a linear baroclinic model (LBM) and one of the simplest machine learning algorithms: logistic regression. By increasing the complexity of the logistic regression model with additional information about the past activity of the MJO, it is demonstrated that the past 15 days play a dominant role in determining the state of MJO teleconnections more than 15 days into the future. This conclusion is supported by numerical LBM simulations. It is further shown that the past 15 days of additional information are only important for some MJO phases/lead times and not others, and the physical basis for this result is explored.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmospheric Sciences Impacts Machine Learning Madden-Julian Oscillation Mechanisms Meteorology Modulation Pna Prediction Rainfall Teleconnections
Source:

Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2131-2147.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0512.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16OAR4310064
Place as Subject:

North Atlantic
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:f5a65f7be6dd94391ff5a7872d56f6d9311882388d3d0f0240c84eeff87eb0b2
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28728/noaa_28728_DS1.pdf
File Type:

No Additional Files

More +

The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulation

Details:

Supporting Files

Related Documents

You May Also Like