The intensity and spatial extent of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) often shapes the risk posed by landfalling storms. Here we provide a comprehensive climatology of landfalling TCP characteristics as a function of tropical cyclone strength, using daily precipitation station data and Atlantic U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone tracks from 1900 to 2017. We analyze the intensity and spatial extent of >= 1 mm/day TCP (Z(1)) and >= 50 mm/day TCP (Z(50)) over land. We show that the highest median intensity and largest median spatial extent of Z(1) and Z(50) occur for major hurricanes that have weakened to tropical storms, indicating greater flood risk despite weaker wind speeds. We also find some signs of TCP change in recent decades. In particular, for major hurricanes that have weakened to tropical storms, Z(50) intensity has significantly increased, indicating possible increases in flood risk to coastal communities in more recent years.
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4621-4640. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0448.1.xml
Description:
A composite analysis reveals how the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-troposp...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4927-4939. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0992.1.xml
Description:
This study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on U.S. tornadogenesis using atmospheric reanalysis and model experiments....
2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 215-235. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0103.1.xml
Description:
Warm-season precipitation in the U.S. Corn Belt," the Great Plains, and the Midwest greatly influences agricultural production and is subject to high ...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7431-7454. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/17/jcliD190803.x
Description:
Arctic sea ice melting processes in summer due to internal atmospheric variability have recently received considerable attention. A regional barotropi...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3471-3486. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/9/jcli-d-19-0510.1.xml
Description:
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical geopotential heights that modulate extratropical weather, making the ...
We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six US climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in r...
Surface albedo has a significant impact in determining the amount of available net radiation at the surface and the evolution of surface water and ene...
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Many previous...
2019 | Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14063– 14071.
Description:
Recent studies suggest that frequency of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific, that is...
2020 | Atmos Sci Lett. 2020; 21:e984. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.984
Description:
Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of h...
2020 | Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Atmospheres,125,e2018JD029375.
Description:
Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between daily weather forecasts...
2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,125, e2019JD031899.
Description:
Analyzing a long simulation and a set of seasonal reforecasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), this study demonstrates a large model ...
2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 237-254. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0086.1.xml
Description:
Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this...
2019 | Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2263-2279. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/6/jcli-d-19-0475.1.xml
Description:
A hybrid statistical-dynamical model is developed to predict multiyear variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A Poisson model takes s...
2019 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,124, 11,766–11,782.
Description:
The impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of tropical intraseasonal convection, including the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJ...
2020 | Journal ofAdvances in Modeling Earth Systems,12, e2019MS001878. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001878
Description:
The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution ...
2020 | Commun Earth Environ 1, 9 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0008-8
Description:
Sea level variability increasingly contributes to coastal flooding and erosion as global sea levels rise, partly due to the thermal expansion of seawa...
In this study, the prediction of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity from subseasonal to seasonal timescale in current dynamical models' reforec...