Seasonality of Interbasin SST Contributions to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

West, Robert; Lopez, Hosmay; Lee, Sang‐Ki; Mercer, Andrew E.; Kim, Dongmin; Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik

doi:10.1029/2021GL096712

i

Seasonality of Interbasin SST Contributions to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

2022
By West, Robert ; Lopez, Hosmay ; Lee, Sang‐Ki
Source Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL096712

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

West, Robert ; Lopez, Hosmay ; Lee, Sang‐Ki ; Mercer, Andrew E. ; Kim, Dongmin ; Foltz, Gregory R. ; Balaguru, Karthik
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; NGI (Northern Gulf Institute)
Description:

Recent studies have demonstrated that the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) between the tropical Atlantic main development region (MDR) and the tropical Pacific (Niño 3) modulates Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This study further explores the seasonality of Pacific and Atlantic contributions to Atlantic hurricane activity. Our analysis shows that while MDR and Niño 3 SSTAs are equally important for late-season (September–November) activity, early-season (June-August) activity is largely modulated by MDR SSTAs. This reflects the increased (reduced) variance of MDR (Niño 3) SSTAs in the early-season due to their phase locking to the seasonal cycle. Further analysis yields skillful forecasts using an MDR-Niño 3 interbasin index derived from hindcasts of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble with May initial conditions. However, the prediction skill for MDR SSTAs is lower than that of Niño 3 SSTAs, suggesting that increasing the prediction skill for MDR SSTAs is key to improving seasonal outlooks.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL096712
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096712
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16OAR4320199 ; Grant no. NA20OAR4320472
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/35789/noaa_35789_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.49 MB]
Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; NOAA Cooperative Institutes
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:c3896c20aba3b0a33b60c8da7c17cf119f36b5085e770eb481f802b5cbba554f

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