Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity
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Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity

  • Published Date:

    2020

  • Source:
    Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 247–259, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-247-2020
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Subseasonal midlatitude prediction skill following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden–Julian Oscillation activity
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  • Description:
    The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is knownto force extratropical weather days to weeks following anMJO event through excitation of stationary Rossby waves,also referred to as tropical–extratropical teleconnections.Prior research has demonstrated that this tropically forcedmidlatitude response leads to increased prediction skill onsubseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. Furthermore, theQuasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has been shown to pos-sibly alter these teleconnections through modulation of theMJO itself and the atmospheric basic state upon which theRossby waves propagate. This implies that the MJO–QBOrelationship may affect midlatitude circulation predictionskill on S2S timescales. In this study, we quantify midlatitudecirculation sensitivity and prediction skill following activeMJOs and QBOs across the Northern Hemisphere on S2Stimescales through an examination of the 500 hPa geopoten-tial height field. First, a comparison of the spatial distribu-tion of Northern Hemisphere sensitivity to the MJO duringdifferent QBO phases is performed for European Centre forMedium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interimreanalysis and ECMWF and the National Centers for En-vironmental Prediction (NCEP) hindcasts. Secondly, differ-ences in prediction skill in ECMWF and NCEP hindcastsare quantified following MJO–QBO activity. In both hind-cast systems, we find that regions across the Pacific, NorthAmerica, and the Atlantic demonstrate an enhanced MJO im-pact on prediction skill during strong QBO periods with leadtimes of 1–4 weeks compared to MJO events during neutralQBO periods.
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