Advancing Atmospheric RIver Forecasts into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales

Baggett, Cory F.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Maloney, Eric D.; Mundhenk, Bryan D.

doi:10.1002/2017GL074434

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Advancing Atmospheric RIver Forecasts into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales

2017
By Baggett, Cory F. ; Barnes, Elizabeth A. ; Maloney, Eric D. ; ...
Source: Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7528– 7536

[PDF-2.42 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Baggett, Cory F. ; Barnes, Elizabeth A. ; Maloney, Eric D. ; Mundhenk, Bryan D.

Baggett, Cory F. ; Barnes, Elizabeth A. ; Maloney, Eric D. ; Mundhenk, Bryan D. Less -
Corporate Authors:

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ; Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program (U.S.)

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research ; Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program (U.S.) Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) Less -
Description:

Atmospheric rivers are elongated plumes of intense moisture transport that are capable of producing extreme and impactful weather. Along the West Coast of North America, they occasionally cause considerable mayhem—delivering flooding rains during periods of heightened activity and desiccating droughts during periods of reduced activity. The intrinsic chaos of the atmosphere makes the prediction of atmospheric rivers at subseasonal‐to‐seasonal time scales (3 to 5 weeks) an inherently difficult task. We demonstrate here that the potential exists to advance forecast lead times of atmospheric rivers into subseasonal‐to‐seasonal time scales through knowledge of two of the atmosphere's most prominent oscillations, the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). Strong MJO and QBO activity modulates the frequency at which atmospheric rivers strike—offering an opportunity to improve subseasonal‐to‐seasonal forecast models and thereby skillfully predict atmospheric river activity up to 5 weeks in advance.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmosphere Forecasting Madden-Julian Oscillation Rivers Seasonal Variations Atmospheric Rivers Subseasonal‐to‐seasonal Prediction ECMWF QBO
Source:

Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7528– 7536
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074434
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16OAR4310064
Place as Subject:

West Coast ; North America

West Coast ; North America Less -
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Other
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:97d4ca91823ffcea3a1028223bfb1e1b2c83aab05acb9cc47c6d5d177813484d
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/28427/noaa_28427_DS1.pdf
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Advancing Atmospheric RIver Forecasts into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales

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