i
An Internal Atmospheric Process Determining Summertime Arctic Sea Ice Melting in the Next Three Decades: Lessons Learned from Five Large Ensembles and Multiple CMIP5 Climate Simulations
-
2020
Source: Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7431-7454. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/17/jcliD190803.x
[PDF-6.83 MB]
Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed
Details:
-
Journal Title:Journal of Climate
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Arctic sea ice melting processes in summer due to internal atmospheric variability have recently received considerable attention. A regional barotropic atmospheric process over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean in summer (June–August), featuring either a year-to-year change or a low-frequency trend toward geopotential height rise, has been identified as an essential contributor to September sea ice loss, in both observations and the CESM1 Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) of simulations. This local melting is further found to be sensitive to remote sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Here, we utilize five available large “initial condition” Earth system model ensembles and 31 CMIP5 models’ preindustrial control simulations to show that the same atmospheric process, resembling the observed one and the one found in the CESM-LE, also dominates internal sea ice variability in summer on interannual to interdecadal time scales in preindustrial, historical, and future scenarios, regardless of the modeling environment. However, all models exhibit limitations in replicating the magnitude of the observed local atmosphere–sea ice coupling and its sensitivity to remote tropical SST variability in the past four decades. These biases call for caution in the interpretation of existing models’ simulations and fresh thinking about models’ credibility in simulating interactions of sea ice variability with the Arctic and global climate systems. Further efforts toward identifying the causes of these model limitations may provide implications for alleviating the biases and improving interannual- and decadal-time-scale sea ice prediction and future sea ice projection.
-
Source:Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7431-7454. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/17/jcliD190803.x
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Place as Subject:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:de5590e1fd15b653406713e48b02b531d7a135e5e7a000627eb6129f01a4bdcb
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
Personal Author:Arcodia, Marybeth C. ;Kirtman, Ben P....2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4621-4640. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0448.1.xmlDescription:A composite analysis reveals how the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-troposp...Personal Author:Kim, Dongmin ;Lee, Sang-Ki...2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4927-4939. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0992.1.xmlDescription:This study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on U.S. tornadogenesis using atmospheric reanalysis and model experiments....Personal Author:Malloy, Kelsey M. ;Kirtman, Ben P.2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 215-235. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0103.1.xmlDescription:Warm-season precipitation in the U.S. Corn Belt," the Great Plains, and the Midwest greatly influences agricultural production and is subject to high ...Personal Author:Tseng, Kai-Chih ;Maloney, Eric...2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3471-3486. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/9/jcli-d-19-0510.1.xmlDescription:The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical geopotential heights that modulate extratropical weather, making the ...Personal Author:Orbe, Clara ;Van Roekel, Luke...2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7431-7454.Description:We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six US climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in r...2020 | Remote Sens. 2020, 12(4), 645;Description:Surface albedo has a significant impact in determining the amount of available net radiation at the surface and the evolution of surface water and ene...The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulationCitePersonal Author:Tseng, Kai-Chih ;Barnes, Elizabeth A....2019 | Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2131-2147.Description:The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Many previous...2019 | Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14063– 14071.Description:Recent studies suggest that frequency of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific, that is...2020 | Atmos Sci Lett. 2020; 21:e984. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.984Description:Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of h...2020 | Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Atmospheres,125,e2018JD029375.Description:Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between daily weather forecasts...2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,125, e2019JD031899.Description:Analyzing a long simulation and a set of seasonal reforecasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), this study demonstrates a large model ...Personal Author:Materia, Stefano ;Muñoz, Ángel G....2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 237-254. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0086.1.xmlDescription:Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this...Multi-Year Hybrid Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Predictability SourcesCitePersonal Author:Chang, Chuan-Chieh ;Wang, Zhuo2019 | Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2263-2279. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/6/jcli-d-19-0475.1.xmlDescription:A hybrid statistical-dynamical model is developed to predict multiyear variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A Poisson model takes s...2019 | Geophysical ResearchLetters,46, 13,992–14,002.Description:The intensity and spatial extent of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) often shapes the risk posed by landfalling storms. Here we provide a comprehe...2019 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,124, 11,766–11,782.Description:The impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of tropical intraseasonal convection, including the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJ...2020 | Journal ofAdvances in Modeling Earth Systems,12, e2019MS001878. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001878Description:The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution ...2020 | Commun Earth Environ 1, 9 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0008-8Description:Sea level variability increasingly contributes to coastal flooding and erosion as global sea levels rise, partly due to the thermal expansion of seawa...2019 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 12057– 12077. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031252Description:In this study, the prediction of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity from subseasonal to seasonal timescale in current dynamical models' reforec...Personal Author:Shin, Chul-Su ;Dirmeyer, Paul A....2020 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(9), 2101-2121. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/21/9/jhm-d-20-0024.1.xmlDescription:The NCEP CFSv2 ensemble reforecasts initialized with different land surface analyses for the period of 1979–2010 have been conducted to assess the e...2020 | Geophysical Research Letters,47,e2020GL088851. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088851Description:Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant societal and economic impacts, as 2019's Dorian serves to remind us of these storms' destructiv...
More +
You May Also Like
2020 | Remote Sens. 2020, 12(10), 1582
Description:
This work assesses the AMSR2 (the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) ice extent and ice edge in the Arctic using the ice extent products of NOA...
2020 | Remote Sensing, 12(5), 807
Description:
Arctic sea ice extent has been utilized to monitor sea ice changes since the late 1970s using remotely sensed sea ice data derived from passive microw...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov