Storm surge and coastal flooding caused by tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and extratropical cyclones (nor'easters) pose a threat to communities along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Climate change and sea level rise are altering the statistics of these extreme events in a rather complex fashion. Here we use a fully coupled global weather/climate modeling system (GFDL CM4) to study characteristics of extreme daily sea level (ESL) along the U.S. Atlantic coast and their response to global warming. We find that under natural weather processes, the Gulf of Mexico coast is most vulnerable to storm surge and related ESL. New Orleans is a striking hotspot with the highest surge efficiency in response to storm winds. Under a 1% per year atmospheric CO2 increase on centennial time scales, the anthropogenic signal in ESL is robust along the U.S. East Coast. It can emerge from the background variability as soon as in 20 years, or even before global sea level rise is taken into account. The regional dynamic sea level rise induced by the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation facilitates this early emergence, especially during wintertime coastal flooding associated with nor'easters. Along the Gulf Coast, ESL is sensitive to the modification of hurricane characteristics under the CO2 forcing.
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4621-4640. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0448.1.xml
Description:
A composite analysis reveals how the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-troposp...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4927-4939. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0992.1.xml
Description:
This study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on U.S. tornadogenesis using atmospheric reanalysis and model experiments....
2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 215-235. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0103.1.xml
Description:
Warm-season precipitation in the U.S. Corn Belt," the Great Plains, and the Midwest greatly influences agricultural production and is subject to high ...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7431-7454. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/17/jcliD190803.x
Description:
Arctic sea ice melting processes in summer due to internal atmospheric variability have recently received considerable attention. A regional barotropi...
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3471-3486. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/9/jcli-d-19-0510.1.xml
Description:
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical geopotential heights that modulate extratropical weather, making the ...
We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six US climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in r...
Surface albedo has a significant impact in determining the amount of available net radiation at the surface and the evolution of surface water and ene...
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Many previous...
2019 | Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14063– 14071.
Description:
Recent studies suggest that frequency of active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific, that is...
2020 | Atmos Sci Lett. 2020; 21:e984. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.984
Description:
Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of h...
2020 | Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Atmospheres,125,e2018JD029375.
Description:
Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between daily weather forecasts...
2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,125, e2019JD031899.
Description:
Analyzing a long simulation and a set of seasonal reforecasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), this study demonstrates a large model ...
2019 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 237-254. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/1/waf-d-19-0086.1.xml
Description:
Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this...
2019 | Journal of Climate, 33(6), 2263-2279. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/6/jcli-d-19-0475.1.xml
Description:
A hybrid statistical-dynamical model is developed to predict multiyear variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A Poisson model takes s...
The intensity and spatial extent of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) often shapes the risk posed by landfalling storms. Here we provide a comprehe...
2019 | Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,124, 11,766–11,782.
Description:
The impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of tropical intraseasonal convection, including the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJ...
2020 | Journal ofAdvances in Modeling Earth Systems,12, e2019MS001878. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001878
Description:
The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution ...
2020 | Commun Earth Environ 1, 9 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0008-8
Description:
Sea level variability increasingly contributes to coastal flooding and erosion as global sea levels rise, partly due to the thermal expansion of seawa...
In this study, the prediction of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity from subseasonal to seasonal timescale in current dynamical models' reforec...
2020 | Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(9), 2101-2121. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/21/9/jhm-d-20-0024.1.xml
Description:
The NCEP CFSv2 ensemble reforecasts initialized with different land surface analyses for the period of 1979–2010 have been conducted to assess the e...
There is large uncertainty in the simulation of transient climate sensitivity. This study aims to understand how such uncertainty is related to the si...
Bathymetric changes within estuarine and coastal waters can alter the hydrodynamic evolution of sea level and currents, which in turn can influence th...
Links with this icon indicate that you are leaving the NOAA website.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) cannot attest to the accuracy of a non-federal
website.
Linking to a non-federal Website does not constitute an
endorsement by NOAA or any of its employees of the sponsors
or the information and products presented on the website.
You will be subject to the destination website's privacy
policy when you follow the link.
NOAA is not responsible for Section 508 compliance
(accessibility) on other federal or private websites.