i
Effects of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Inflow Environment on Forecasts of Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis in NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS)
-
2020
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 35(6), 2423-2444
[PDF-4.80 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Weather and Forecasting
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Cyclic mesocyclogenesis is the process by which a supercell produces multiple mesocyclones with similar life cycles. The frequency of cyclic mesocyclogenesis has been linked to tornado potential, with higher frequencies decreasing the potential for tornadogenesis. Thus, the ability to predict the presence and frequency of cycling in supercells may be beneficial to forecasters for assessing tornado potential. However, idealized simulations of cyclic mesocyclogenesis have found it to be highly sensitive to environmental and computational parameters. Thus, whether convective-allowing models can resolve and predict cycling has yet to be determined. This study tests the capability of a storm-scale, ensemble prediction system to resolve the cycling process and predict its frequency. Forecasts for three cyclic supercells occurring in May 2017 are generated by NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) using 3- and 1-km grid spacing. Rare cases of cyclic-like processes were identified at 3 km, but cycling occurred more frequently at 1 km. WoFS predicted variation in cycling frequencies for the storms that were similar to observed variations in frequency. Object-based identification of mesocyclones was used to extract environmental parameters from a storm-relative inflow sector from each mesocyclone. Lower magnitudes of 0–1-km storm-relative helicity and significant tornado parameter are present for the two more frequently cycling supercells, and higher values are present for the case with the fewest cycles. These results provide initial evidence that high-resolution ensemble forecasts can potentially provide useful guidance on the likelihood and cycling frequency of cyclic supercells.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Weather and Forecasting, 35(6), 2423-2444
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:fa416e47b94ea8be040920eb1023c35bfa2c98d6e6088789d5abd3cda8b989e4
-
File Type:
Related Documents
-
Personal Author:Link, Jason S. ;Werner, Francisco E....2021 | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. 78(1): 1-12Description:Many fisheries and marine science organizations are working to determine how to meet their missions in the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak. As such, it...Personal Author:Tam, Jamie C. ;Link, Jason S....2017 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7): 2040-2052Description:Modern approaches to Ecosystem-Based Management and sustainable use of marine resources must account for the myriad of pressures (interspecies, human ...Personal Author:Link, Jason S. ;Thébaud, Olivier...2017 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7): 1947-1956Description:The World Ocean presents many opportunities, with the blue economy projected to at least double in the next two decades. However, capitalizing on thes...Personal Author:Thébaud, Olivier ;Link, Jason S....2017 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7): 1965–1980Description:What do you get when a lawyer, a modeller, an economist, a social scientist and an ecologist talk about the ocean? Besides an interesting conversation...Personal Author:Chase, Randy J. ;Nesbitt, Stephen W....2021 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60(3), 341-359Description:With the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM-DPR) in 2014, renewed interest in retrievals of snowfa...2020 | Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 21, e2020GC009360Description:In 2016, temperature recorders were recovered, temperatures were measured, and fluid samples were collected from Vent 1, a high temperature (338°C) h...Personal Author:McFarquhar, Greg M. ;Bretherton, Christopher S....2021 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(4), E894-E928Description:Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understa...2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD032237Description:The bulk microphysical properties and number distribution functions (N(D)) of supercooled liquid water (SLW) and ice inside and between ubiquitous gen...2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032465Description:Focusing on conditions of subsidence when low clouds are present, ground-based observations in both the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean reveal s...Personal Author:Mecikalski, John R. ;Sandmæl, Thea N....2021 | Monthly Weather Review, 149(6), 1725-1746Description:Few studies have assessed combined satellite, lightning, and radar databases to diagnose severe storm potential. The research goal here is to evaluate...Structure of an Atmospheric River Over Australia and the Southern Ocean: II. Microphysical EvolutionCite2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032514Description:An atmospheric river affecting Australia and the Southern Ocean on 28–29 January 2018 during the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport...2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032513Description:An atmospheric river (AR) impacting Tasmania, Australia, and the Southern Ocean during the austral summer on 28–29 January 2018 during the Southern ...2020 | Atmosphere 2020, 11(7), 756Description:Retrievals of ice cloud properties require accurate estimates of ice particle mass. Empirical mass–dimensional (m–D) relationships in the form m=a...Stratiform Cloud-Hydrometeor Assimilation for HRRR and RAP Model Short-Range Weather PredictionCitePersonal Author:Benjamin, Stanley G. ;James, Eric P....2021 | Monthly Weather Review, 149(8), 2673-2694Description:Accurate cloud and precipitation forecasts are a fundamental component of short-range data assimilation/model prediction systems such as the NOAA 3-km...Personal Author:Brook, Jordan P. ;Protat, Alain...2021 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60(3), 237-254Description:A spatial mismatch between radar-based hail swaths and surface hail reports is commonly noted in meteorological literature. The discrepancy is partly ...Personal Author:Tuftedal, Kristofer S. ;French, Michael M....2021 | Monthly Weather Review, 149(8), 2539-2557Description:The time preceding supercell tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis “failure” has been studied extensively to identify differing attributes related to ...Personal Author:Jensen, Anders A. ;Pinto, James O....2021 | Monthly Weather Review, 149(5), 1459-1480Description:Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Tea...Personal Author:Murphy, Amanda M. ;Ryzhkov, Alexander...2020 | Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 37(9), 1623-1642Description:A novel way to process polarimetric radar data collected via plan position indicator (PPI) scans and display those data in a time–height format is i...Personal Author:Flournoy, Matthew D. ;Coniglio, Michael C....2021 | Weather and Forecasting, 36(3), 737-755Description:Although environmental controls on bulk supercell potential and hazards have been studied extensively, relationships between environmental conditions ...Personal Author:Kuster, Charles M. ;Schuur, Terry J....2020 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(6), 2507-2522Description:Research has shown that dual-polarization (dual-pol) data currently available to National Weather Service forecasters could provide important informat...
More +
You May Also Like
Personal Author:
Bluestein, Howard B. ;
Thiem, Kyle J.
...
2019 | Monthly Weather Review, 147(6), 2045-2066
Description:
This study documents the formation and part of the early evolution of a large, violent tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma, based on data from a mobile, po...
2022 | Monthly Weather Review, 150(11), 2883-2910
Description:
An historic outbreak of tornadoes impacted a large swath of the eastern United States on 26–28 April 2011. The most severe series of tornadoes was a...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov