Tornadoes cause billions of dollars in damage and over 100 fatalities on average annually. Yet, an indirect cost to these storms is found in lost sales and/or lost productivity from responding to over 2000 warnings per year. This project responds to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, H.R. 353, which calls for the use of social and behavioral science to study and improve storm warning systems. Our goal is to provide an analysis of cost avoidance that could accrue from a change to the warning paradigm, particularly to include probabilistic hazard information at storm scales. A survey of nearly 500 firms was conducted in and near the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area asking questions about experience with tornadoes, sources of information for severe weather, expected cost of responding to tornado warnings, and how the firm would respond to either deterministic or probabilistic warnings. We find a dramatic change from deterministic warnings compared to the proposed probabilistic and that a probabilistic information system produces annual cost avoidance in a range of $2.3–$7.6 billion (U.S. dollars) compared to the current deterministic warning paradigm.
2021 | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. 78(1): 1-12
Description:
Many fisheries and marine science organizations are working to determine how to meet their missions in the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak. As such, it...
2017 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7): 2040-2052
Description:
Modern approaches to Ecosystem-Based Management and sustainable use of marine resources must account for the myriad of pressures (interspecies, human ...
2017 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7): 1947-1956
Description:
The World Ocean presents many opportunities, with the blue economy projected to at least double in the next two decades. However, capitalizing on thes...
2017 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7): 1965–1980
Description:
What do you get when a lawyer, a modeller, an economist, a social scientist and an ecologist talk about the ocean? Besides an interesting conversation...
2021 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60(3), 341-359
Description:
With the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM-DPR) in 2014, renewed interest in retrievals of snowfa...
In 2016, temperature recorders were recovered, temperatures were measured, and fluid samples were collected from Vent 1, a high temperature (338°C) h...
2021 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(4), E894-E928
Description:
Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understa...
2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD032237
Description:
The bulk microphysical properties and number distribution functions (N(D)) of supercooled liquid water (SLW) and ice inside and between ubiquitous gen...
2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032465
Description:
Focusing on conditions of subsidence when low clouds are present, ground-based observations in both the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean reveal s...
Few studies have assessed combined satellite, lightning, and radar databases to diagnose severe storm potential. The research goal here is to evaluate...
2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032514
Description:
An atmospheric river affecting Australia and the Southern Ocean on 28–29 January 2018 during the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport...
2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032513
Description:
An atmospheric river (AR) impacting Tasmania, Australia, and the Southern Ocean during the austral summer on 28–29 January 2018 during the Southern ...
Accurate cloud and precipitation forecasts are a fundamental component of short-range data assimilation/model prediction systems such as the NOAA 3-km...
2021 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60(3), 237-254
Description:
A spatial mismatch between radar-based hail swaths and surface hail reports is commonly noted in meteorological literature. The discrepancy is partly ...
Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Tea...
2020 | Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 37(9), 1623-1642
Description:
A novel way to process polarimetric radar data collected via plan position indicator (PPI) scans and display those data in a time–height format is i...
Although environmental controls on bulk supercell potential and hazards have been studied extensively, relationships between environmental conditions ...
Research has shown that dual-polarization (dual-pol) data currently available to National Weather Service forecasters could provide important informat...
2021 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(10), E1878-E1896
Description:
Uncertainty is everywhere and understanding how individuals understand and use forecast information to make decisions given varying levels of certaint...
2021 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(4), E765-E773
Description:
According to recent Census data, the Hispanic or Latino population represents nearly 1 in 5 Americans today, where 71.1% of these individuals speak Sp...
Links with this icon indicate that you are leaving the NOAA website.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) cannot attest to the accuracy of a non-federal
website.
Linking to a non-federal Website does not constitute an
endorsement by NOAA or any of its employees of the sponsors
or the information and products presented on the website.
You will be subject to the destination website's privacy
policy when you follow the link.
NOAA is not responsible for Section 508 compliance
(accessibility) on other federal or private websites.