i
Using Machine Learning to Generate Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance of Severe Weather Hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast System
-
2021
Source: Monthly Weather Review, 149(5), 1535-1557
[PDF-3.22 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Monthly Weather Review
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:A primary goal of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project is to provide rapidly updating probabilistic guidance to human forecasters for short-term (e.g., 0–3 h) severe weather forecasts. Postprocessing is required to maximize the usefulness of probabilistic guidance from an ensemble of convection-allowing model forecasts. Machine learning (ML) models have become popular methods for postprocessing severe weather guidance since they can leverage numerous variables to discover useful patterns in complex datasets. In this study, we develop and evaluate a series of ML models to produce calibrated, probabilistic severe weather guidance from WoF System (WoFS) output. Our dataset includes WoFS ensemble forecasts available every 5 min out to 150 min of lead time from the 2017–19 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments (81 dates). Using a novel ensemble storm-track identification method, we extracted three sets of predictors from the WoFS forecasts: intrastorm state variables, near-storm environment variables, and morphological attributes of the ensemble storm tracks. We then trained random forests, gradient-boosted trees, and logistic regression algorithms to predict which WoFS 30-min ensemble storm tracks will overlap a tornado, severe hail, and/or severe wind report. To provide rigorous baselines against which to evaluate the skill of the ML models, we extracted the ensemble probabilities of hazard-relevant WoFS variables exceeding tuned thresholds from each ensemble storm track. The three ML algorithms discriminated well for all three hazards and produced more reliable probabilities than the baseline predictions. Overall, the results suggest that ML-based postprocessing of dynamical ensemble output can improve short-term, storm-scale severe weather probabilistic guidance.
-
Source:Monthly Weather Review, 149(5), 1535-1557
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:7a124bff28fff1b2c4fce67f53abc0e90081d84e00a2bcc0a37a0e8bb93e6df2
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
Personal Author:Link, Jason S. ;Werner, Francisco E....2021 | Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. 78(1): 1-12Description:Many fisheries and marine science organizations are working to determine how to meet their missions in the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak. As such, it...Personal Author:Tam, Jamie C. ;Link, Jason S....2017 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7): 2040-2052Description:Modern approaches to Ecosystem-Based Management and sustainable use of marine resources must account for the myriad of pressures (interspecies, human ...Personal Author:Link, Jason S. ;Thébaud, Olivier...2017 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7): 1947-1956Description:The World Ocean presents many opportunities, with the blue economy projected to at least double in the next two decades. However, capitalizing on thes...Personal Author:Thébaud, Olivier ;Link, Jason S....2017 | ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74(7): 1965–1980Description:What do you get when a lawyer, a modeller, an economist, a social scientist and an ecologist talk about the ocean? Besides an interesting conversation...Personal Author:Chase, Randy J. ;Nesbitt, Stephen W....2021 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60(3), 341-359Description:With the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM-DPR) in 2014, renewed interest in retrievals of snowfa...2020 | Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 21, e2020GC009360Description:In 2016, temperature recorders were recovered, temperatures were measured, and fluid samples were collected from Vent 1, a high temperature (338°C) h...Personal Author:McFarquhar, Greg M. ;Bretherton, Christopher S....2021 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(4), E894-E928Description:Weather and climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in simulating Southern Ocean (SO) radiative fluxes that trace to a poor understa...2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD032237Description:The bulk microphysical properties and number distribution functions (N(D)) of supercooled liquid water (SLW) and ice inside and between ubiquitous gen...2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032465Description:Focusing on conditions of subsidence when low clouds are present, ground-based observations in both the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean reveal s...Personal Author:Mecikalski, John R. ;Sandmæl, Thea N....2021 | Monthly Weather Review, 149(6), 1725-1746Description:Few studies have assessed combined satellite, lightning, and radar databases to diagnose severe storm potential. The research goal here is to evaluate...Structure of an Atmospheric River Over Australia and the Southern Ocean: II. Microphysical EvolutionCite2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032514Description:An atmospheric river affecting Australia and the Southern Ocean on 28–29 January 2018 during the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport...2020 | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032513Description:An atmospheric river (AR) impacting Tasmania, Australia, and the Southern Ocean during the austral summer on 28–29 January 2018 during the Southern ...2020 | Atmosphere 2020, 11(7), 756Description:Retrievals of ice cloud properties require accurate estimates of ice particle mass. Empirical mass–dimensional (m–D) relationships in the form m=a...Stratiform Cloud-Hydrometeor Assimilation for HRRR and RAP Model Short-Range Weather PredictionCitePersonal Author:Benjamin, Stanley G. ;James, Eric P....2021 | Monthly Weather Review, 149(8), 2673-2694Description:Accurate cloud and precipitation forecasts are a fundamental component of short-range data assimilation/model prediction systems such as the NOAA 3-km...Personal Author:Brook, Jordan P. ;Protat, Alain...2021 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60(3), 237-254Description:A spatial mismatch between radar-based hail swaths and surface hail reports is commonly noted in meteorological literature. The discrepancy is partly ...Personal Author:Tuftedal, Kristofer S. ;French, Michael M....2021 | Monthly Weather Review, 149(8), 2539-2557Description:The time preceding supercell tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis “failure” has been studied extensively to identify differing attributes related to ...Personal Author:Jensen, Anders A. ;Pinto, James O....2021 | Monthly Weather Review, 149(5), 1459-1480Description:Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Tea...Personal Author:Murphy, Amanda M. ;Ryzhkov, Alexander...2020 | Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 37(9), 1623-1642Description:A novel way to process polarimetric radar data collected via plan position indicator (PPI) scans and display those data in a time–height format is i...Personal Author:Flournoy, Matthew D. ;Coniglio, Michael C....2021 | Weather and Forecasting, 36(3), 737-755Description:Although environmental controls on bulk supercell potential and hazards have been studied extensively, relationships between environmental conditions ...Personal Author:Kuster, Charles M. ;Schuur, Terry J....2020 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(6), 2507-2522Description:Research has shown that dual-polarization (dual-pol) data currently available to National Weather Service forecasters could provide important informat...
More +
You May Also Like
2022 | Weather and Forecasting, 37(6), 1027-1047
Description:
A multiscale analysis of the significant nocturnal tornado outbreak in Tennessee on 2–3 March 2020 is presented. This outbreak included several sign...
Personal Author:
Cintineo, John L. ;
Pavolonis, Michael J.
...
2020 | Weather and Forecasting, 35(4), 1523-1543
Description:
Severe convective storms are hazardous to both life and property and thus their accurate and timely prediction is imperative. In response to this crit...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov