Projected Changes in South Asian Monsoon Low-pressure Systems

Dong, Wenhao; Ming, Yi; Ramaswamy, V.

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0168.1

i

Projected Changes in South Asian Monsoon Low-pressure Systems

2020
By Dong, Wenhao ; Ming, Yi ; Ramaswamy, V.
Source Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7275-7287, 2020

Details

Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Dong, Wenhao ; Ming, Yi ; Ramaswamy, V.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; NWS (National Weather Service)
Description:

Monsoon low pressure systems (MLPSs) are among the most important synoptic-scale disturbances of the South Asian summer monsoon. Potential changes in their characteristics in a warmer climate would have broad societal impacts. Yet, the findings from a few existing studies are inconclusive. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model CM4.0 to examine the projected changes in the simulated MLPS activity under a future emission scenario. It is shown that CM4.0 can skillfully simulate the number, genesis location, intensity, and lifetime of MLPSs. Global warming gives rise to a significant decrease in MLPS activity. An analysis of several large-scale environmental variables, both dynamic and thermodynamic, suggests that the decrease in MLPS activity can be attributed mainly to a reduction in low-level relative vorticity over the core genesis region. The decreased vorticity is consistent with weaker large-scale ascent, which leads to less vorticity production through the stretching term in the vorticity equation. Assuming a fixed radius of influence, the projected reduction in MLPSs would significantly lower the associated precipitation over north-central India, despite an overall increase in mean precipitation.
Source:

Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7275-7287, 2020
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0168.1
Format:

PDF
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16NWS4620043 ; Grant no. NA18NWS4620043B ; Grant no. NA18OAR4320123
Place as Subject:

South Asia
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29811/noaa_29811_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.74 MB]
Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; National Weather Service (NWS)
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:3998e4dc6eb9adb188a1d33f6e526781f6e03eb7425cfacea8be773593dfd5b1

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