We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28 different models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model‐analog forecast skill has been demonstrated to match or even exceed traditional assimilation‐initialized forecast skill in a given model. Models with the most realistic mean states and interannual variability for SST, precipitation, and 10‐m zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific also generate the most skillful precipitation forecasts in the central equatorial Pacific and the best SST forecasts at 6‐month or longer leads. These results show direct links between model climatological biases and seasonal forecast errors, demonstrating that model‐analog hindcast skill—that is, how well a model can capture the observed evolution of tropical Pacific anomalies—is an informative El Niño/Southern Oscillation metric for climate simulations.
2020 | Journal of Climate, 33(17), 7275-7287, 2020
Description:
Monsoon low pressure systems (MLPSs) are among the most important synoptic-scale disturbances of the South Asian summer monsoon. Potential changes in ...
2019 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(12), 2589-2606, 2019
Description:
This article introduces the Extratropical–Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (ETIN-MIP), where a set of fully coupled model experime...
2016 | J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 121, 497– 510
Description:
Satellite laser altimetry reveals short timescale changes in Antarctic ice sheet surface elevation that are suggested to be driven by subglacial water...
Icebergs calved from the Antarctic continent act as moving sources of freshwater while drifting in the Southern Ocean. The lifespan of these icebergs ...
2019 | Journal of Climate, 32(20), 7017-7035, 2019
Description:
Dynamical prediction systems have shown potential to meet the emerging need for seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice. Observationally constra...
Extracting multiple-scale observational information is critical for accurately reconstructing the structure of mesoscale circulation systems such as t...
Arid extratropical Asia (AEA) is bisected at the wetter Tian Shan (a northern offshoot of the Tibetan Plateau) into east and west deserts, each with u...
Uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity impedes accurate climate projections. While the intermodel spread is known to arise primarily from diff...
2019 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(12), 2551-2570, 2019
Description:
We present a model intercomparison project, LongRunMIP, the first collection of millennial-length (1,000+ years) simulations of complex coupled climat...
High-latitude phytoplankton blooms support productive fisheries and play an important role in oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In the sub...
We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using...
Sea surface cooling along tropical cyclone (TC) tracks has been well observed, but a complete understanding of the full three-dimensional structure of...
2020 | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12, e2019MS002026.
Description:
The imprint of anthropogenic activities on the marine nitrogen (N) cycle remains challenging to represent in global models, in part because of uncerta...
The preferential dust source (PDS) scheme enables large-scale mapping of geomorphology in terms of importance for dust emissions but has not been inde...
Recently, there has been considerable interest in examining how sea-level extremes due to storm surge may be related to climate change. Evidence of ho...
2021 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(1), S1-S7.
Description:
July 2019 saw record-breaking wildfires burning 3,600 km2 in Alaska. The GFDL Earth system model indicates a threefold increased risk of Alaska’s ex...
The subseasonal predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is examined using two global ensemble prediction systems (ECMWF VarEPS and NCE...
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