Cross–Time Scale Interactions and Rainfall Extreme Events in Southeastern South America for the Austral Summer. Part II: Predictive Skill
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

For very narrow results

When looking for a specific result

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields



Document Data
Clear All
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page


Cross–Time Scale Interactions and Rainfall Extreme Events in Southeastern South America for the Austral Summer. Part II: Predictive Skill

Filetype[PDF-4.22 MB]


  • Journal Title:
    Journal of Climate
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    Potential and real predictive skill of the frequency of extreme rainfall in southeastern South America for the December–February season are evaluated in this paper, finding evidence indicating that mechanisms of climate variability at one time scale contribute to the predictability at another scale; that is, taking into account the interference of different potential sources of predictability at different time scales increases the predictive skill. Part I of this study suggested that a set of daily atmospheric circulation regimes, or weather types, was sensitive to these cross–time scale interferences, conducive to the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in the region, and could be used as a potential predictor. At seasonal scale, a combination of those weather types indeed tends to outperform all the other candidate predictors explored (i.e., sea surface temperature patterns, phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation, and combinations of both). Spatially averaged Kendall’s τ improvements of 43% for the potential predictability and 23% for real-time predictions are attained with respect to standard models considering sea surface temperature fields alone. A new subseasonal-to-seasonal predictive methodology for extreme rainfall events is proposed based on probability forecasts of seasonal sequences of these weather types. The cross-validated real-time skill of the new probabilistic approach, as measured by the hit score and the Heidke skill score, is on the order of twice that associated with climatological values. The approach is designed to offer useful subseasonal-to-seasonal climate information to decision-makers interested not only in how many extreme events will happen in the season but also in how, when, and where those events will probably occur.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Journal of Climate, 29(16), 5915-5934
  • DOI:
  • Document Type:
  • Rights Information:
  • Compliance:
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files
More +

Related Documents

You May Also Like