i
Cross–Time Scale Interactions and Rainfall Extreme Events in Southeastern South America for the Austral Summer. Part II: Predictive Skill
-
2016
Source: Journal of Climate, 29(16), 5915-5934
[PDF-4.22 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Journal of Climate
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Potential and real predictive skill of the frequency of extreme rainfall in southeastern South America for the December–February season are evaluated in this paper, finding evidence indicating that mechanisms of climate variability at one time scale contribute to the predictability at another scale; that is, taking into account the interference of different potential sources of predictability at different time scales increases the predictive skill. Part I of this study suggested that a set of daily atmospheric circulation regimes, or weather types, was sensitive to these cross–time scale interferences, conducive to the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in the region, and could be used as a potential predictor. At seasonal scale, a combination of those weather types indeed tends to outperform all the other candidate predictors explored (i.e., sea surface temperature patterns, phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation, and combinations of both). Spatially averaged Kendall’s τ improvements of 43% for the potential predictability and 23% for real-time predictions are attained with respect to standard models considering sea surface temperature fields alone. A new subseasonal-to-seasonal predictive methodology for extreme rainfall events is proposed based on probability forecasts of seasonal sequences of these weather types. The cross-validated real-time skill of the new probabilistic approach, as measured by the hit score and the Heidke skill score, is on the order of twice that associated with climatological values. The approach is designed to offer useful subseasonal-to-seasonal climate information to decision-makers interested not only in how many extreme events will happen in the season but also in how, when, and where those events will probably occur.
-
Source:Journal of Climate, 29(16), 5915-5934
-
Document Type:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:1663428c7dfd270ecb1e6d5771fa55685aa904a75e3ab9bf23abd5f8d81d0c11
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
Personal Author:Fu, Hongli ;Wu, Xinrong...2016 | Advances in Meteorology,2016: 2170746Description:Extracting multiple-scale observational information is critical for accurately reconstructing the structure of mesoscale circulation systems such as t...Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem modelsCitePersonal Author:Laufkötter, C. ;Vogt, M....2015 | Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, 2015Description:Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the mul...Personal Author:Murakami, Hiroyuki ;Vecchi, Gabriel A....2016 | Journal of Climate, 28(23), 9058-9079Description:A new high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model [the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) mo...Personal Author:Crawford, Anna ;Wadhams, Peter...2016 | Oceanography 29(2):254–263Description:In August 2010, a 253 km2 ice island calved from the floating glacial tongue of Petermann Glacier in Northwest Greenland. Petermann Ice Island (PII)-B...Personal Author:Jia, Liwei ;Vecchi, Gabriel A....2016 | Journal of Climate, 29(11), 4121-4135Description:This study investigates the roles of radiative forcing, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and atmospheric and land initial conditions in the summer war...Personal Author:Hiester, J. ;Sergienko, O. V....2016 | J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 121, 497– 510Description:Satellite laser altimetry reveals short timescale changes in Antarctic ice sheet surface elevation that are suggested to be driven by subglacial water...Personal Author:Stern, A. A. ;Adcroft, A....2016 | J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, 5773– 5788Description:Icebergs calved from the Antarctic continent act as moving sources of freshwater while drifting in the Southern Ocean. The lifespan of these icebergs ...Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication riskCitePersonal Author:Lee, Minjin ;Shevliakova, Elena...2016 | Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7520– 7528Description:Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the cr...Personal Author:Yang, Xiaosong ;Vecchi, G. A....2015 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96(12), S25-S28.Description:Over the period Decem-ber 2013–February 2014, there was a pronounced reduction of extratropical storm (ETS) activity over the North Pacific Ocean an...2020 | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12, e2019MS002043.Description:This contribution describes the ocean biogeochemical component of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 4.1 (GFDL‐ESM4.1), ...2020 | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12, e2019MS002032.Description:We describe the baseline model configuration and simulation characteristics of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s Atmosphere Model ver...Personal Author:Ilotoviz, Eyal ;Khain, Alexander P....2016 | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(1), 109-144Description:A midlatitude hail storm was simulated using a new version of the spectral bin microphysics Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM) with a detailed descr...Personal Author:Banerjee, Tirtha ;Li, Dan...2016 | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(1), 145-166Description:A spectral budget model is developed to describe the scaling behavior of the longitudinal turbulent velocity variance with the stability parameter and...2020 | Geophysical Research Letters 47(5): e2019GL086765, 2020Description:We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea su...2021 | Journal of Climate, 34(6), 2107-2126.Description:The current GFDL seasonal prediction system achieved retrospective sea ice extent (SIE) skill without direct sea ice data assimilation. Here we develo...Personal Author:Zhang, Liping ;Delworth, Thomas L.2016 | J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, 5825– 5846Description:The impact of Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation on the Weddell Gyre and its northward propagation characteristics are studied using a 4000 year ...Personal Author:Kam, Jonghun ;Knutson, Thomas R....2015 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96(12), S61-S65.Description:HadCRUT4v3 observed surface tem-perature data (Morice et al. 2012) indicate that during 2014, record annual mean warm anomalies occurred in regions of...Personal Author:Williams, Dean N. ;Balaji, V....2016 | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(5), 803-816.Description:Working across U.S. federal agencies, international agencies, and multiple worldwide data centers, and spanning seven international network organizati...Personal Author:Mellor, George2016 | J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, 4474– 4486Description:The classic theory for the interaction of surface gravity waves and the general ocean circulation entails the so-called wave radiation stress terms in...
More +
You May Also Like
Personal Author:
DeMaria, Mark ;
Franklin, James L.
...
2022 | Weather and Forecasting, 37(11), 2141-2159
Description:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses a variety of guidance models for its operational tropical cyclone track, intensity, and wind structure foreca...
Personal Author:
Shimada, Udai ;
Owada, Hiromi
...
2018 | Weather and Forecasting, 33(6), 1587-1603
Description:
The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) is a multiple regression model for forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity [both cen...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov