Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P. C. D.; Jaffé, Peter R.

doi:10.1002/2016GL069254

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Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

2016
By Lee, Minjin ; Shevliakova, Elena ; Malyshev, Sergey ; ...
Source: Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7520– 7528

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Lee, Minjin ; Shevliakova, Elena ; Malyshev, Sergey ; Milly, P. C. D. ; Jaffé, Peter R.

Lee, Minjin ; Shevliakova, Elena ; Malyshev, Sergey ; Milly, P. C. D. ; Jaffé, Peter R. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr−1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.
Keywords:

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Climate Dry Spells Nitrogen Variability Watershed Modeling
Source:

Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7520– 7528
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069254
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Chesapeake Bay (Md. and Va.)
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CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:51660fc0a1cd67db7f280035532610971ad7f48707dd3c781de4dc29af25368e
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29822/noaa_29822_DS1.pdf
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Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

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