Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse

Holsman, K. K.; Haynie, A. C.; Hollowed, A. B.; Reum, J. C. P.; Aydin, K.; Hermann, A. J.; Cheng, W.; Faig, A.; Ianelli, J. N.; Kearney, K. A.; Punt, A. E.

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3

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Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse

2020
By Holsman, K. K. ; Haynie, A. C. ; Hollowed, A. B. ; ...
Source: Nat Commun. 2020 Sep 11;11(1):4579.

[PDF-2.47 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Nature Communications
Personal Author:

Holsman, K. K. ; Haynie, A. C. ; Hollowed, A. B. ; Reum, J. C. P. ; Aydin, K. ; ... More +

Holsman, K. K. ; Haynie, A. C. ; Hollowed, A. B. ; Reum, J. C. P. ; Aydin, K. ; Hermann, A. J. ; Cheng, W. ; Faig, A. ; Ianelli, J. N. ; Kearney, K. A. ; Punt, A. E. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center) ; Integrated Ecosystem Assessment ; CICOES (Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ... More +

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center) ; Integrated Ecosystem Assessment ; CICOES (Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075-2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1-2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change.
Keywords:

[+]

Climatic Changes Fisheries Management
Source:

Nat Commun. 2020 Sep 11;11(1):4579.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3
Pubmed ID:

32917860
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC7486947
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:034433a6015bf9ab5388564e24b4dad927df6e776a2b277c30432513e76c9646
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/27522/noaa_27522_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Available dataset

htm

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