Details:

Personal Author:
Hassanzadeh, Pedram ; Lee, Chia-Ying ; Nabizadeh, Ebrahim ; Camargo, Suzana J. ; Ma, Ding ; ... More +
Hassanzadeh, Pedram ; Lee, Chia-Ying ; Nabizadeh, Ebrahim ; Camargo, Suzana J. ; Ma, Ding ; Yeung, Laurence Y. ; Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ;
OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; Less -
Description:
The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but-consistently across models-stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21st century.
Keywords:
[+]
Climatic Changes
Tropical Cyclones

Source:
Nat Commun. 2020 Jul 3;11(1):3319.
DOI:
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7
Pubmed ID:
32620772
Pubmed Central ID:
PMC7334231
Document Type:
Journal Article ;
Funding:
Grant no. NA16OAR4310079 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4310277 ;
Grant no. NA16OAR4310079 ; Grant no. NA18OAR4310277 ; Less -
Rights Information:
CC BY
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:eac935ef5a2e549ab84fcd5f856ee667cd47ff5251f6700d991b079f55c5facd
File Type:

Supporting Files

• 	Dataset available via NOAA (Daily Precipitation)	htm
  	Dataset available via NOAA (NCEP-DOE Reanalysis)	htm
  	LENS	htm
  	Dataset available (CMIP5)	htm
  	cmip5	htm

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