Predicting coral-reef futures from El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation events

Houk, Peter; Yalon, Anthony; Maxin, Selino; Starsinic, Christy; McInnis, Andrew; Gouezo, Marine; Golbuu, Yimnang; van Woesik, Robert

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-64411-8

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Predicting coral-reef futures from El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation events

2020
By Houk, Peter ; Yalon, Anthony ; Maxin, Selino ; ...
Source: Sci Rep. 2020 May 8;10(1):7735.

[PDF-2.71 MB]

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Journal Title:

Scientific Reports
Personal Author:

Houk, Peter ; Yalon, Anthony ; Maxin, Selino ; Starsinic, Christy ; McInnis, Andrew ; ... More +

Houk, Peter ; Yalon, Anthony ; Maxin, Selino ; Starsinic, Christy ; McInnis, Andrew ; Gouezo, Marine ; Golbuu, Yimnang ; van Woesik, Robert Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OCM (Office for Coastal Management) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; CoRIS (Coral Reef Information System)

OCM (Office for Coastal Management) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; CoRIS (Coral Reef Information System) Less -
Description:

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate oceanographic processes that control temperature and productivity in tropical waters, yet potential interactions with low frequency climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are poorly understood. We show that ENSO and PDO together predicted (i) maximum sea-surface temperatures (SST), which were associated with coral bleaching and declines in coral cover, and (ii) maximum chlorophyll-a concentrations, which were associated with high densities of coral-predatory Acanthaster starfish, across the tropical north Pacific Ocean since 1980. Asynchrony between the positive PDO and negative ENSO (i.e., La Niña) was associated with peaks in annual SST. By contrast, synchrony between the positive PDO and positive ENSO (i.e., El Niño) was associated with peaks in chlorophyll-a. Both conditions led to ecological disturbances and significant loss of coral cover, however, spatial models revealed where impacts to reefs were expected under varying climate scenarios. The 2015/17 ENSO event was coupled with a positive PDO and resulted in high SST and Acanthaster abundances in eastern Micronesia, while positive coral growth occurred in western Micronesia. Our novel approach for forecasting coral growth into the future may be applicable to other oceanic regions with differing oceanographic modulators.
Keywords:

[+]

Coral Reefs And Islands El Niño Current
Source:

Sci Rep. 2020 May 8;10(1):7735.
DOI:

https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64411-8
Pubmed ID:

32385336
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC7210262
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18NOS4820017
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

PMC
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:e7eed13a2d48eaa85f9151497126564e7063fb6e33d11aed7d7200da7837405c
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/27542/noaa_27542_DS1.pdf
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Predicting coral-reef futures from El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation events

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