i
Circularity in fisheries data weakens real world prediction
-
2020
Source: Sci Rep. 2020 Apr 24;10(1):6977.
Details:
-
Journal Title:Scientific Reports
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:The systematic substitution of direct observational data with synthesized data derived from models during the stock assessment process has emerged as a low-cost alternative to direct data collection efforts. What is not widely appreciated, however, is how the use of such synthesized data can overestimate predictive skill when forecasting recruitment is part of the assessment process. Using a global database of stock assessments, we show that Standard Fisheries Models (SFMs) can successfully predict synthesized data based on presumed stock-recruitment relationships, however, they are generally less skillful at predicting observational data that are either raw or minimally filtered (denoised without using explicit stock-recruitment models). Additionally, we find that an equation-free approach that does not presume a specific stock-recruitment relationship is better than SFMs at predicting synthesized data, and moreover it can also predict observational recruitment data very well. Thus, while synthesized datasets are cheaper in the short term, they carry costs that can limit their utility in predicting real world recruitment.
-
Keywords:
-
Source:Sci Rep. 2020 Apr 24;10(1):6977.
-
Pubmed ID:32332835
-
Pubmed Central ID:PMC7181812
-
Document Type:
-
Rights Information:CC BY
-
Compliance:PMC
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:2ca2c029a9908b21a55d3e0e96e069a6eb06f6bec0a46035817a90f3210e0f0b
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
- File Format:
- RIS
Personal Author:Graham, Neal T. ; Hejazi, Mohamad I. ; ...2020 | Nat Commun. 2020 Jul 20;11(1):3632.Description:Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environm...Personal Author:Holsman, K. K. ; Haynie, A. C. ; ...2020 | Nat Commun. 2020 Sep 11;11(1):4579.Description:Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for k...Daily Satellite Observations of Methane from Oil and Gas Production Regions in the United StatesCitePersonal Author:de Gouw, Joost A. ; Veefkind, J. Pepijn ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Jan 28;10(1):1379.Description:Production of oil and natural gas in North America is at an all-time high due to the development and use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturi...Unique Solid Phase Microextraction Sampler Reveals Distinctive Biogeochemical Profiles among Various Deep-Sea Hydrothermal VentsCitePersonal Author:Grandy, Jonathan James ; Onat, Bora ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Jan 28;10(1):1360.Description:Current methods for biochemical and biogeochemical analysis of the deep-sea hydrothermal vent ecosystems rely on water sample recovery, or in situ ana...A biogenic secondary organic aerosol source of cirrus ice nucleating particlesCitePersonal Author:Wolf, Martin J. ; Zhang, Yue ; ...2020 | Nat Commun. 2020 Oct 1;11(1):4834.Description:Atmospheric ice nucleating particles (INPs) influence global climate by altering cloud formation, lifetime, and precipitation efficiency. The role of ...Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclonesCitePersonal Author:Hassanzadeh, Pedram ; Lee, Chia-Ying ; ...2020 | Nat Commun. 2020 Jul 3;11(1):3319.Description:The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in ...Personal Author:Tagklis , Filippos ; Bracco, A. ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Oct 15;10(1):17489.Description:Submesoscale structures fill the ocean surface, and recent numerical simulations and indirect observations suggest that they may extend to the ocean i...Increased persistence of large-scale circulation regimes over Asia in the era of amplified Arctic warming, past and futureCitePersonal Author:Francis, Jennifer A. ; Skific, Natasa ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Sep 11;10(1):14953.Description:Extreme weather events in Asia have been occurring with increasing frequency as the globe warms in response to rising concentrations of greenhouse gas...On the interchangeability of sea-surface and near-surface air temperature anomalies in climatologiesCitePersonal Author:Rubinon Angelo ; Zanchettin, Davide ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 May 4;10(1):7433.Description:On global and hemispheric scales, sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are assumed to be good surrogates for near-surface marine air temperature (M...Personal Author:Lee, Li Keat ; Lim, Zhen Fei ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Jul 9;10(1):11251.Description:Microhabitats influence the distribution and abundance of benthic harmful dinoflagellate (BHAB) species. Currently, much of the information on the rel...Ecological parameter reductions, environmental regimes, and characteristic process diagram of carbon dioxide fluxes in coastal salt marshesCitePersonal Author:Ishtiaq, Khandker S. ; Abdul-Aziz, Omar I. ;2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Sep 25;10(1):15732.Description:We investigated the ecological parameter reductions (termed "similitudes") and characteristic patterns of the net uptake fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2...Temporal patterns in acoustic presence and foraging activity of oceanic dolphins at seamounts in the AzoresCitePersonal Author:Cascão, Irma ; Lammers, Marc O. ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Feb 27;10(1):3610.Description:Several seamounts have been identified as hotspots of marine life in the Azores, acting as feeding stations for top predators, including cetaceans. Pa...Risk of shoreline hardening and associated beach loss peaks before mid-century: Oʻahu, HawaiʻiCitePersonal Author:Tavares, Kammie-Dominique ; Fletcher, Charles H. ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Aug 12;10(1):13633.Description:Shoreline hardening, which causes beach loss globally, will accelerate with sea level rise (SLR), causing more beach loss if management practices are ...Personal Author:Seeley, Meredith E. ; Song, Bongkeun ; ...2020 | Nat Commun. 2020 May 12;11(1):2372.Description:Microplastics are ubiquitous in estuarine, coastal, and deep sea sediments. The impacts of microplastics on sedimentary microbial ecosystems and bioge...Predicting coral-reef futures from El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation eventsCitePersonal Author:Houk, Peter ; Yalon, Anthony ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 May 8;10(1):7735.Description:El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate oceanographic processes that control temperature and productivity in tropical waters, yet potenti...Morphological, elemental, and boron isotopic insights into pathophysiology of diseased coral growth anomaliesCitePersonal Author:Andersson, Erik R. ; Stewart, Joseph A. ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 May 19;10(1):8252.Description:Coral growth anomalies (GAs) are tumor-like lesions that are detrimental to colony fitness and are commonly associated with high human population dens...Host-symbiont coevolution, cryptic structure, and bleaching susceptibility, in a coral species complex (Scleractinia; Poritidae)CitePersonal Author:Forsman, Z. H. ; Ritson-Williams, R. ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Oct 12;10(1):16995.Description:The 'species' is a key concept for conservation and evolutionary biology, yet the lines between population and species-level variation are often blurr...Persisting volcanic ash particles impact stratospheric SO2 lifetime and aerosol optical propertiesCitePersonal Author:Zhu, Yunqian ; Toon, Owen B. ; ...2020 | Nat Commun. 2020 Sep 10;11(1):4526.Description:Volcanic ash is often neglected in climate simulations because ash particles are assumed to have a short atmospheric lifetime, and to not participate ...Long-term observations from Antarctica demonstrate that mismatched scales of fisheries management and predator-prey interaction lead to erroneous conclusions about precautionCitePersonal Author:Watters, George M. ; Hinke, Jefferson T. ; ...2020 | Sci Rep. 2020 Feb 11;10(1):2314.Description:Low catch limits for forage species are often considered to be precautionary measures that can help conserve marine predators. Difficulties measuring ...Personal Author:Fahimipour, Ashkaan K. ; Gross, Thilo ;2020 | Nat Commun. 2020 Sep 28;11(1):4887.Description:The rise in the availability of bacterial genomes defines a need for synthesis: abstracting from individual taxa, to see larger patterns of bacterial ...
More +
You May Also Like
Personal Author:
Spies, Ingrid ; Nichol, Dan ; ...
2018 | Gulf of Alaska Stock Assessments
Description:
[NOTE: In accordance with the approved assessment schedule, no stock assessment was conducted for this stock this year, however, a full stock assessme...
Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov