Regime shifts in satellite-derived chlorophyll within the Laurentian Great Lakes

Details

• Journal Title:
  Journal of Great Lakes Research
• Personal Author:
  Nezlin, Nikolay P. ; Son, SeungHyun ; Brown, Christopher W. ; Dash, Prasanjit ; Binding, Caren E. ; Elgin, Ashley K. ; VanderWoude, Andrea
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GLERL (Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory) ; NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; CISESS (Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies)
• Description:
  As a result of implementation of nutrient management following the binational Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement in 1972, the ecosystems within the Laurentian Great Lakes were gradually transforming to lower trophic regimes. This transformation dramatically accelerated in the late 1980s after the introduction of two invasive species of filter-feeding mussels of the genus Dreissena. We performed a detailed analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of this transformation using remotely sensed surface chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) from the multi-satellite long-term Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) dataset as a proxy of ecosystem state. We analyzed 25 years (1997–2022) of monthly composites covering most of the Great Lakes’ area detecting regime shifts in Chl-a employing an integrated approach combining Seasonal-Trend decomposition (STL) and Sequential T-test Analysis of Regime Shifts (STARS). The results identified the timings (shift points) when Chl-a stabilized at new lower trophic regimes, the magnitudes of Chl-a decrease across various lake regions and depths, and the changes in Chl-a seasonal cycles. In Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Ontario, the timings and magnitudes of regime shifts and vanishing of spring phytoplankton bloom suggest that dreissenid mussel presence was a primary driving factor of the observed transformation. We demonstrate that the OC-CCI dataset is a reliable source of information that enables the detection of these regime shifts in major lakes, with only minor effects of inconsistencies resulting from the biases between different satellites collecting data during different time periods.
• Keywords:
  Dreissena Remote Sensing Remote Sensing Chlorophyll-a Dreissenid Mussels Laurentian Great Lakes Regime Shift
• Series:
  GLERL Contribution No. 2073
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2025.102573
• Format:
  PDF
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  Grant no. NA24NESX432C0001
• Place as Subject:
  Great Lakes (North America)
• Rights Information:
  Accepted Manuscript
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:7fb640be3fba392905c72881645e9961aa39271760b31a67f629f63c63fc162b94120567b1ef5dd315a838d603c6d8243bf8e6f59479eb1c20e9c07400206e20
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70103/noaa_70103_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 5.92 MB ]