The value of sustained ocean observations for sea-ice predictions in the Barents Sea

Details

• Journal Title:
  Journal of Climate
• Personal Author:
  Bushuk, Mitchell ; Yang, Xiaosong ; Winton, Michael ; Msadek, Rym ; Harrison, Matthew ; Rosati, Anthony ; Gudgel, Rich
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
• Description:
  Dynamical prediction systems have shown potential to meet the emerging need for seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice. Observationally constrained initial conditions are a key source of skill for these predictions, but the direct influence of different observation types on prediction skill has not yet been systematically investigated. In this work, we perform a hierarchy of observing system experiments with a coupled global data assimilation and prediction system to assess the value of different classes of oceanic and atmospheric observations for seasonal sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea. We find notable skill improvements due to the inclusion of both sea surface temperature (SST) satellite observations and subsurface conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) measurements. The SST data are found to provide the crucial source of interannual variability, whereas the CTD data primarily provide climatological and trend improvements. Analysis of the Barents Sea ocean heat budget suggests that ocean heat content anomalies in this region are driven by surface heat fluxes on seasonal time scales.
• Source:
  Journal of Climate, 32(20), 7017-7035.
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0179.1
• Format:
  PDF
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  Award no. GC15-504
• Place as Subject:
  Antarctic Peninsula (Antarctica) ; Barents Sea
• Rights Information:
  Other
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29895/noaa_29895_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 6.35 MB]
• Collection(s):
  Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; National Weather Service (NWS) ; National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service (NESDIS)
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:12d0c6b8260599488174ff1a1f4be9b8cc2965e7d659e9e3333ea16d67acc924