An Ensemble High-Resolution Projection Of Changes In The Future Habitat Of American Lobster And Sea Scallop In The Northeast Us Continental Shelf

Tanaka, Kisei R.; Torre, Michael P.; Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Chen, Yong

doi:10.1111/ddi.13069

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An Ensemble High-Resolution Projection Of Changes In The Future Habitat Of American Lobster And Sea Scallop In The Northeast Us Continental Shelf

2020
By Tanaka, Kisei R. ; Torre, Michael P. ; Saba, Vincent S. ; ...
Source: Diversity and Distributions 26 (8) 987-1001 2020 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13069

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Journal Title:

Diversity and Distributions
Personal Author:

Tanaka, Kisei R. ; Torre, Michael P. ; Saba, Vincent S. ; Stock, Charles A. ; Chen, Yong

Tanaka, Kisei R. ; Torre, Michael P. ; Saba, Vincent S. ; Stock, Charles A. ; Chen, Yong Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center) ; NEFSC (Northeast Fisheries Science Center) ; ... More +

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; AFSC (Alaska Fisheries Science Center) ; NEFSC (Northeast Fisheries Science Center) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; ONMS (Office of National Marine Sanctuaries) ; Sea Grant ; JISAO (Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean) ; CIMES (Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System) Less -
Sea Grant Program:

MEU (Maine Sea Grant)
Description:

Aim To address the uncertainty associated with climate-driven biogeographical changes in commercial fisheries species through an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) approach. Location Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NEUS-LME). Methods We combined an ensemble SDM platform (BIOMOD 2) and a high-resolution global climate model (NOAA GFDL CM2.6) to quantify spatiotemporal changes in habitat of two commercially important species in the Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NEUS-LME); American lobster (Homarus americanus); and sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus). An ensemble SDM was calibrated using multi-decadal fisheries-independent surveys (1984-2016). Statistically weighted species-specific ensemble SDM outputs were combined with 80 years of projected bottom temperature and salinity changes in response to a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (an annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO2). Results Statistically significant changes (p < .05) in habitat suitability for both species were found over a large portion of the study area. Sea scallop undergoes a northward shift over the study period, while American lobster moves further offshore. The ensemble projections showed that several management zones were identified with increases and decreases in species-specific habitat. Uncertainty due to variations in ensemble member models was also found in the direction of change within each management zone. Main conclusions This study provides ensemble estimates of climate-driven changes and associated uncertainties in the biogeography of two economically important species in the United States. Projected climate change in the NEUS-LME will pose management challenges, and our ensemble projections provide useful information for climate-ready management of commercial fisheries.
Keywords:

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American Lobster Bioclimate Envelope Biodiversity BIOMOD Biotic Interactions Climate-change Conservation Ecological Energetics Ecology Environmental Sciences Food Availability Global Climate Model Homarus-americanus Large Marine Ecosystem Placopecten-magellanicus Predictive Models Sea Scallop Spatiotemporal Variability Species Distribution Models
Source:

Diversity and Distributions 26 (8) 987-1001 2020 https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13069
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13069
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Continental shelf--Northeastern States ; Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (Agency : U.S.)

Continental shelf--Northeastern States ; Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (Agency : U.S.) Less -
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:982dd8fa1c0bcf8d132d53bbcbb6a4f4af41ccbb42b1937faa08e6f201c549bd
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/29948/noaa_29948_DS1.pdf
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An Ensemble High-Resolution Projection Of Changes In The Future Habitat Of American Lobster And Sea Scallop In The Northeast Us Continental Shelf

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