The Role of Internal Variability in Twenty‐First‐Century Projections of the Seasonal Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

For very narrow results

When looking for a specific result

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Dates

to

Document Data
Library
People
Clear All
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i

The Role of Internal Variability in Twenty‐First‐Century Projections of the Seasonal Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature

Filetype[PDF-3.66 MB]


Details Related Documents You May Also Like

Details:

  • Journal Title:
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
  • Description:
    The seasonal cycle is fundamental to the Earth's climate system, accounting for the vast majority of temperature variance. Understanding how the seasonal cycle will change in the future, and by when, is a key question with important implications. Here a 40‐member initial condition climate model ensemble is used to investigate the influence of internal variability on the detection of changes in the amplitude and timing of the seasonal cycle of surface temperature over Northern Hemisphere land in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Internal variability renders the detection of these changes challenging; even by the mid‐twenty‐first century, small ensembles will be insufficient to separate the forced signals from internal variability over many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Despite this, projected changes over Europe, North Africa, and Siberia are large and easily detectable, even in a single member. Specifically, amplitude increases over Europe and North Africa while it decreases over Siberia. On the other hand, the timing of the seasonal cycle is delayed over all three regions. It is found that these changes are remarkably robust across model ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 archive. To understand the mechanisms underlying these robust changes, a simple energy balance model is used to partition changes into contributions arising from changes in the physical parameters that control the seasonal cycle. It is found that future changes in the seasonal cycle over the three regions are most strongly controlled by changes in surface longwave and turbulent heat fluxes.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    JGR Atmospheres 123(23): 13149-13167, 2018
  • DOI:
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Place as Subject:
    Northern Hemisphere
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files
More +

Related Documents

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov

Version 3.27.1