Climate influences vegetation directly and through climate-mediated disturbance processes, such as wildfire. Temperature and area burned are positively associated, conditional on availability of vegetation to burn. Fire is a self-limiting process that is influenced by productivity. Yet, many fire projections assume sufficient vegetation to support fire, with substantial implications for carbon (C) dynamics and emissions. We simulated forest dynamics under projected climate and wildfire for the Sierra Nevada, accounting for climate effects on fuel flammability (static) and climate and prior fire effects on fuel availability and flammability (dynamic). We show that compared to climate effects on flammability alone, accounting for the interaction of prior fires and climate on fuel availability and flammability moderates the projected increase in area burned by 14.3%. This reduces predicted increases in area-weighted median cumulative emissions by 38.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) and 0.6 Tg particulate matter (PM1), or 12.9% and 11.5%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that after correcting for potential over-estimates of the effects of climate-driven increases in area burned, California is likely to continue facing significant wildfire and air quality challenges with on-going climate change.
Ran, Jiangjun; Vizcaino, Miren; Ditmar, Pavel; van de Broeke, Michiel R.; Moon, Twila; Steger, Christian R.; Enderlin, Ellyn M.; Wouter, Bert; Noël, Brice; Reijmer, Catharina H.; Klees, Roland; Zhong, Min; Liu, Lin; Fettweis, Xavier;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
The Cryosphere, 12, 2981–2999, 2018
Description:
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently losing ice mass. In order to accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry mission Gr...
In the 1970s, the introduced silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (which is indigenous to eastern Asia) escaped from southern U.S. aquaculture to spread throughout the Mississippi River basin, and since has steadily moved northward. This large, pr...
Using observational data and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model outputs [the preindustrial (PI) control run of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and historical simulations of 17 CMIP5 models], India...
Ecosystem services (ES) practitioners (e.g., researchers, policy makers) have been working to better define, measure, and value the ways that nature contributes to society. Because measurement techniques follow the labeling or identification of ES, p...
Williamson, Andrew G.; Banwell, Alison F.; Willis, Ian C.; Arnold, Neil S.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
The Cryosphere, 12, 3045–3065, 2018
Description:
Remote sensing is commonly used to monitor supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS); however, most satellite records must trade off higher spatial resolution for higher temporal resolution (e.g. MODIS) or vice versa (e.g. Landsat). Here, ...
Wadhams, P.; Aulicino, G.; Parmiggiani, F.; Persson, P. O. G.; Holt, B.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
JGR Oceans 123(3): 2213-2237, 2018
Description:
The early autumn voyage of RV Sikuliaq to the southern Beaufort Sea in 2015 offered very favorable opportunities for observing the properties and thicknesses of frazilâ€pancake ice types. The operational region was overlaid by a dense network of ret...
Gray, Harrison J.; Tucker, Gregory E.; Mahan, Shannon A.;
Published Date:
2019
Source:
Reviews of Geophysics, 57(3), 987-1017
Description:
Luminescence holds unique potential as a sediment tracer and provenance method. The tracer application of luminescence has key advantages including ease of measurement, relatively low cost, and applicability to geologically ubiquitous quartz and feld...
Morrison, A. L.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Yettella, V.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
JGR Atmospheres 123(1):473-490, 2018
Description:
While the radiative influence of clouds on Arctic sea ice is known, the influence of sea ice cover on Arctic clouds is challenging to detect, separate from atmospheric circulation, and attribute to human activities. Providing observational constraint...
Goodkin, N. F.; Bolton, A.; Hughen, K. A.; Karnauskas, K. B.; Griffin, S.; Phan, K. H.; Vo, S. T.; Ong, M. R.; Druffel, E. R. M.;
Published Date:
2019
Source:
Geophysical Resource Letters 46(9), 4790-4798
Description:
The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) impacts storms, freshwater availability, wind energy production, coal consumption, and subsequent air quality for billions of people across Asia. Despite its importance, the EAM's longâ€term behavior is poorly understood...
Hamlington, Benjamin D.; Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, R. Steven; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Landerer, F. W.;
Published Date:
2019
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, 46(9), 4844-4853
Description:
The continuous and nearâ€global coverage of satellite altimeters has provided an improved understanding of sea level rise on both global and regional scales. With its relatively short record, however, questions have persisted regarding how well sate...
Nagy, R. Chelsea; Porder, Stephen; Brando, Paulo; Davidson, Eric A.; Figueira, Adelaine Michela e Silva; Neill, Christopher; Riskin, Shelby; Trumbore, Susan;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
JGR Biogeosciences 123(1):18-31, 2018
Description:
Climate and land use models predict that tropical deforestation and conversion to cropland will produce a large flux of soil carbon (C) to the atmosphere from accelerated decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM). However, the C flux from the deep t...
Martin, N. J.; Conroy, J. L.; Noone, D.; Cobb, K. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Rea, S.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
JGR Atmospheres 123(1):261-275, 2018
Description:
The origin of stable isotopic variability in precipitation over time and space is critical to the interpretation of stable isotopeâ€based paleoclimate proxies. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, modern stable isotope measurements in precipitation (Î...
Nathan, B. J.; Lauvaux, T.; Turnbull, J. C.; Richardson, S. J.; Miles, N. L.; Gurney, K. R.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
JGR Atmospheres 123(12): 13611-13621, 2018
Description:
We assimilate multiple trace gas species within a single highâ€resolution Bayesian inversion system to optimize CO2ff emissions for individual source sectors. Starting with carbon monoxide (CO), an atmospheric trace gas with fairly wellâ€known emis...
This paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stat...
Shobe, Charles M.; Tucker, Gergory E.; Rossi, Matthew W.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
JGR Earth Surface 123(8): 1931-1957
Description:
Geomorphologists often rely on simple models of river channel incision for predicting rates of landscape evolution and channel response to perturbations, as well as extracting climatic and tectonic signals from river longitudinal profiles. Recent wor...
Scambos, T. A.; Campbell, G. G.; Pope, A.; Haran, T.; Muto, A.; Lazzara, M.; Reijmer, C. H.; Van den Broeke, M. R.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters 45(12): 6124-6133, 2018
Description:
We identify areas near the East Antarctic ice divide where <−90 °C surface snow temperatures are observed in wintertime satellite thermalâ€band data under clearâ€sky conditions. The lowest temperatures are found in small (<200 km2) topographic b...
O'Dell, C. W.; Eldering, A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Crisp, D.; Gunson, M. R.; Fisher, B.; Frankenberg, C.; Kiel, M.; Lindqvist, H.; Mandrake, L.; Merrelli, A.; Natraj, V.; Nelson, R. R.; Osterman, G. B.; Payne, V. H.; Taylor, T. E.; Wunch, D.; Drouin, B. J.; Oyafuso, F.; Chang, A.; McDuffie, J.; Smyth, M.; Baker, D. F.; Basu, S.; Chevallier, F.; Crowell, S. M. R.; Feng, L.; Palmer, P. I.; Dubey, M.; GarcÃa, O. E.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Hase, F.; Iraci, L. T.; Kivi, R.; Morino, I.; Notholt, J.; Ohyama, H.; Petri, C.; Roehl, C. M.; Sha, M. K.; Strong, K.; Sussmann, R.; Te, Y.; Uchino, O.; Velazco, V. A.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 6539–6576, 2018
Description:
Since September 2014, NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite has been taking measurements of reflected solar spectra and using them to infer atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. This work provides details of the OCO-2 retrieval algorith...
Papanastasiou, Dimitrios K.; Beltrone, Allison; Marshall, Paul; Burkholder, James B.;
Published Date:
2018
Source:
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6317–6330, 2018
Description:
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases that are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, the majority of the 274 HCFCs included in Annex C of the protocol do not have reported global warmin...
Conkling, M.; Hesp, K.; Munroe, S.; Sandoval, K.; Martens, D. E.; Sipkema, D.; Wijffels, R. H.; Pomponi, S. A.;
Published Date:
2019
Source:
Scientific Reports, 9(1)
Description:
Sponges (Phylum Porifera) are among the oldest Metazoa and considered critical to understanding animal evolution and development. They are also the most prolific source of marine-derived chemicals with pharmaceutical relevance. Cell lines are importa...
One of the largest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise prediction is glacial acceleration, of which the surge phenomenon is the least understood type. The surge of the Bering Bagley Glacier System (BBGS), Alaska, in 2011–2013 has provided a ra...
United States, Office of Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research,
Published Date:
2007
Description:
"This report summarizes results from the wildland fire weather needs assessment conducted during 2006-2007 by the Joint Action Group (JAG) for National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA). To conduct the needs assessment, the JAG/NWFW...
"The purpose of the workshop was to take the first step in developing a NOAA research strategy that addresses the impact of climate change on Great Lakes coastal ecosystems that is driven by user needs. The workshop was unique because of its focus on...