Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

Singh, Bohar; Cash, Ben; Kinter III, James L.

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4203-6

i

Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

2019
By Singh, Bohar ; Cash, Ben ; Kinter III, James L.

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Journal Title:

Climate Dynamics
Personal Author:

Singh, Bohar ; Cash, Ben ; Kinter III, James L.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPO (Climate Program Office)
Description:

The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982–2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1. The NMME skillfully predicts seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and some of the teleconnections with seasonal mean rainfall. However, the SST-rainfall teleconnections are stronger in the NMME than observed. The NMME is not able to capture the extremes of seasonal mean rainfall and the simulated Indian Ocean-monsoon teleconnections are opposite to what are observed.
Keywords:

Modellling Monsoons
Source:

Clim Dyn. 2019; 53(12): 7321–7334.
DOI:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4203-6
Pubmed ID:

31929686
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC6934244
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA09OAR4310058 ; Grant no. NA14OAR4310160
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

PMC
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:452b4077813f1fb71b3c0b919ef89089fa3b449c7b3f9134478305f114ac81c32c209bdbafb02f025467bf8614b051d0e69bd32551e9106a1a9cba014e6fc49f
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26312/noaa_26312_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 14.37 MB ]

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