i
Projecting the Most Likely Annual Urban Heat Extremes in the Central United States
-
Published Date:
2019
Source:Atmosphere 2019, 10(12), 727.
- File Format:
- RIS
Details:
-
Personal Author:
-
Description:Climate studies based on global climate models (GCMs) project a steady increase in annual average temperature and severe heat extremes in central North America during the mid-century and beyond. However, the agreement of observed trends with climate model trends varies substantially across the region. The present study focuses on two different locations: Des Moines, IA and Austin, TX. In Des Moines, annual extreme temperatures have not increased over the past three decades unlike the trend of regionally-downscaled GCM data for the Midwest, likely due to a “warming hole” over the area linked to agricultural factors. This warming hole effect is not evident for Austin over the same time period, where extreme temperatures have been higher than projected by regionally-downscaled climate (RDC) forecasts. In consideration of the deviation of such RDC extreme temperature forecasts from observations, this study statistically analyzes RDC data in conjunction with observational data to define for these two cities a 95% prediction interval of heat extreme values by 2040. The statistical model is constructed using a linear combination of RDC ensemble-member annual extreme temperature forecasts with regression coefficients for individual forecasts estimated by optimizing model results against observations over a 52-year training period.
-
Document Type:
-
Place as Subject:
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:e72cc3331e1b8315acb7d86feb6e4a6cc370a3b6574bbda47104b9368bf9a074
- File Type:
-
Supporting Files:No Additional Files
Related Documents:
-
-
Personal Author:Fierro, Alexandre O. ; Wang, Yunheng ; ...Published Date:2019Source:Mon. Wea. Rev. (2019) 147 (11): 4045–4069.Description:The assimilation of water vapor mass mixing ratio derived from total lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) within a three-dimen...
Personal Author:Weckwerth, Tammy M., 1966- ; Hanesiak, John ; ...Published Date:2019Source:Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2019) 100 (11): 2223–2239.Description:Nocturnal convection initiation (NCI) is more difficult to anticipate and forecast than daytime convection initiation (CI). A major component of the P...
Personal Author:Zrnić, Dušan S. ; Zhang, Pengfei ; ...Published Date:2020Source:Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 363.Description:Weather surveillance radars routinely detect smoke of various origin. Of particular significance to the meteorological community are wildfires in fore...
Personal Author:Zrnić, Dušan S. ; Zhang, P. ; ...Published Date:2020Source:Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2020) 101 (2): E90–E108.Description:High-sensitivity weather radars easily detect nonmeteorological phenomena characterized by weak radar returns. Fireworks are the example presented her...
Personal Author:Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K. ; Brooks, Harold ;Published Date:2019Source:Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (6): 1999–2015.Description:Deadly tornadoes are rare events, but that level of rarity varies with many factors. In this work, we summarize and update past research on tornado fa...
Personal Author:Stratman, Derek R. ; Yussouf, Nusrat ; ...Published Date:2020Source:Wea. Forecasting (2020) 35 (1): 193–214.Description:A potential replacement candidate for the aging operational WSR-88D infrastructure currently in place is the phased array radar (PAR) system. The curr...
Personal Author:Lai, Anwei ; Gao, Jidong ; ...Published Date:2019Source:Mon. Wea. Rev. (2019) 147 (8): 2877–2900.Description:To improve severe thunderstorm prediction, a novel pseudo-observation and assimilation approach involving water vapor mass mixing ratio is proposed to...
Personal Author:Wang, Yunheng ; Gao, Jidong ; ...Published Date:2019Source:Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (6): 1807–1827.Description:A real-time, weather adaptive, dual-resolution, hybrid Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) analysis and forecast system using the WRF-ARW forecast model has been d...
Personal Author:Hux, Jiaxi ; Rosenfeld, Daniel ; ...Published Date:2020Source:J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. (2020) 59 (6): 1051–1068.Description:This study analyzes the microphysics and precipitation pattern of Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018) in both the eyewall and outer rainband ...
Personal Author:Kerr, Christopher A. ; Wang, Xuguang ;Published Date:2020Source:Mon. Wea. Rev. (2020) 148 (3): 877–890.Description:The potential future installation of a multifunction phased-array radar (MPAR) network will provide capabilities of case-specific adaptive scanning. K...
Personal Author:Lawson, John R. ; Galllus, William A. ; ...Published Date:2020Source:Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 384.Description:The bow echo, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) responsible for much hail and wind damage across the United States, is associated with poor skill in...
Personal Author:Galarneau, Thomas J. ; Xubin, Zeng ;Published Date:2020Source:Mon. Wea. Rev. (2020) 148 (6): 2479–2502.Description:A synoptic analysis and soil moisture (SM) sensitivity experiment is conducted on the record-breaking rainstorm in Texas associated with Hurricane Har...
Personal Author:Jones, Thomas A. ; Skinner, Patrick ; ...Published Date:2020Source:Mon. Wea. Rev. (2020) 148 (5): 1829–1859.Description:The increasing maturity of the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) coupled with the now operational GOES-16 satellite allows for the first time a comprehen...
Personal Author:Dawson, Daniel T. ; Roberts, Brett ; ...Published Date:2019Source:Mon. Wea. Rev. (2019) 147 (11): 3935–3954.Description:In idealized, horizontally homogeneous, cloud model simulations of convective storms, the action of surface friction can substantially modify the near...
Personal Author:Loken, Eric D. ; Clark, Adam J. ; ...Published Date:2019Source:Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (6): 2017–2044.Description:Most ensembles suffer from underdispersion and systematic biases. One way to correct for these shortcomings is via machine learning (ML), which is adv...
Personal Author:Kong, Rong ; Xue, Ming ; ...Published Date:2020Source:Mon. Wea. Rev. (2020) 148 (5): 2111–2133.Description:The recently launched Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite “R-series” (GOES-R) satellites carry the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (G...
Personal Author:Flora, Montgomery L. ; Skinner, Patrick S. ; ...Published Date:2019Source:Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (6): 1721–1739.Description:An object-based verification method for short-term, storm-scale probabilistic forecasts was developed and applied to mesocyclone guidance produced by ...
Personal Author:Davies-Jones, Robert ; Wood, Vincent T. ; ...Published Date:2020Source:J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. (2020) 37 (6): 1117–1133.Description:Formulas are obtained for observed circulation around and contraction rate of a Doppler radar grid cell within a surface of constant launch angle. The...
Personal Author:Krocak, Makenzie J. ; Brooks, Harold E. ;Published Date:2020Source:Wea. Forecasting (2020) 35 (1): 107–112.Description:One of the challenges of providing probabilistic information on a multitude of spatiotemporal scales is ensuring that information is both accurate and...
Personal Author:Ryzhkov, Alexander V. ; Snyder, Jeffrey ; ...Published Date:2020Source:Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 362.Description:The utilization of polarimetric weather radars for optimizing cloud models is a next frontier of research. It is widely understood that inadequacies i...
-
You May Also Like:
-
Personal Author:Baker-Austin, Craig ; Trinanes, Joaquin A. ; ...Published Date:2016Source:Emerg Infect Dis. 2016 Jul; 22(7): 1216–1220.Description:During summer 2014, a total of 89 Vibrio infections were reported in Sweden and Finland, substantially more yearly infections than previously have bee...
Personal Author:Lonhart, S. I. ; Jeppesen, R. ; ...Published Date:2019Source:Marine Biodiversity Records, 12(1)Description:Ongoing global ocean warming and a recent increase in the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves have demonstrably impacted marine ecosystems. Gro...