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Record warmth… MOS can't cope
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1986
[PDF-1.35 MB]
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Description:January 1986 was the warmest in 115 years of record at Denver. Maximum temperatures exceeded the previous high mean by 1.8°F and were 11.6° above normal. Minimum temperatures were 10.0° above normal.
As the attached Figs. 1 through 4 (produced by Western Region's verification package) show, MOS was generally unable to cope with the persistent unseasonable warmth. The proportion of MOS forecasts that were underforecasts ranged from 67 to 85 percent. The problems were severe in all periods, but in the extreme 32 percent of all 4 the period maximums (from 12Z) were 10 or more degrees too low. (As an editorial comment there probably would have been several more large busts on maximums except for several days when wave clouds depressed maximums. It's doubtful that the MOS forecasts "considered" the probability of wave cloud formation.)
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