i
An Evaluation of the Impact of Assimilating AERI Retrievals, Kinematic Profilers, Rawinsondes, and Surface Observations on a Forecast of a Nocturnal Convection Initiation Event during the PECAN Field Campaign
-
2019
Source: Mon. Wea. Rev. (2019) 147 (8): 2739–2764.
Select the Download button to view the document
This document is over 5mb in size and cannot be previewed
Details:
-
Journal Title:Monthly Weather Review
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:Numerical weather prediction models often fail to correctly forecast convection initiation (CI) at night. To improve our understanding of such events, researchers collected a unique dataset of thermodynamic and kinematic remote sensing profilers as part of the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) experiment. This study evaluates the impacts made to a nocturnal CI forecast on 26 June 2015 by assimilating a network of atmospheric emitted radiance interferometers (AERIs), Doppler lidars, radio wind profilers, high-frequency rawinsondes, and mobile surface observations using an advanced, ensemble-based data assimilation system. Relative to operational forecasts, assimilating the PECAN dataset improves the timing, location, and orientation of the CI event. Specifically, radio wind profilers and rawinsondes are shown to be the most impactful instrument by enhancing the moisture advection into the region of CI in the forecast. Assimilating thermodynamic profiles collected by the AERIs increases midlevel moisture and improves the ensemble probability of CI in the forecast. The impacts of assimilating the radio wind profilers, AERI retrievals, and rawinsondes remain large throughout forecasting the growth of the CI event into a mesoscale convective system. Assimilating Doppler lidar and surface data only slightly improves the CI forecast by enhancing the convergence along an outflow boundary that partially forces the nocturnal CI event. Our findings suggest that a mesoscale network of profiling and surface instruments has the potential to greatly improve short-term forecasts of nocturnal convection.
-
Source:Mon. Wea. Rev. (2019) 147 (8): 2739–2764.
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:3a7ee63b84a658e75384ff53d6ab035d260ed02263ebf0c1a61dcdbd356b6f59
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
No Additional Files
More +
Related Documents
-
Personal Author:Fierro, Alexandre O. ;Wang, Yunheng...2019 | Mon. Wea. Rev. (2019) 147 (11): 4045–4069.Description:The assimilation of water vapor mass mixing ratio derived from total lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) within a three-dimen...Personal Author:Johnson, Aaron ;Wang, Xuguang...2020 | Wea. Forecasting (2020) 35 (1): 169–191.Description:An object-based probabilistic (OBPROB) forecasting framework is developed and applied, together with a more traditional neighborhood-based framework, ...Personal Author:Weckwerth, Tammy M., 1966- ;Hanesiak, John...2019 | Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2019) 100 (11): 2223–2239.Description:Nocturnal convection initiation (NCI) is more difficult to anticipate and forecast than daytime convection initiation (CI). A major component of the P...The Impact of Elevation Sidelobe Contamination on Radar Data Quality for Operational InterpretationCitePersonal Author:Nai, Feng ;Boettcher, Jami...2020 | J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. (2020) 59 (4): 707–724.Description:To fulfill the evolving observational needs of the National Weather Service (NWS), future weather radar systems will have to meet demanding requiremen...Personal Author:Kerr, Christopher A. ;Wang, Xuguang2020 | Mon. Wea. Rev. (2020) 148 (3): 877–890.Description:The potential future installation of a multifunction phased-array radar (MPAR) network will provide capabilities of case-specific adaptive scanning. K...Personal Author:Rickenbach, Thomas M. ;Ferreira, Rosana Nieto...2020 | Mon. Wea. Rev. (2020) 148 (3): 891–906.Description:This study examines the geographic and temporal characteristics of the springtime transition to the summer precipitation regime of isolated convection...Personal Author:Cornforth, Rosalind ;Parker, Douglas J., 1967-...2019 | Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2019) 100 (11): 2343–2351.Description:Bridging the gap between rapidly moving scientific research and specific forecasting tools, Meteorology of Tropical West Africa: The Forecasters’ Ha...Personal Author:Miller, Rachel L. ;Ziegler, Conrad L....2020 | Mon. Wea. Rev. (2020) 148 (1): 211–240.Description:This case study analyzes a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS) that was observed on 25–26 June 2015 in northeastern Kansas during the Plains...Simulated Evolution and Severe Wind Production by the 25–26 June 2015 Nocturnal MCS from PECANCitePersonal Author:Parker, Matthew D. ;Borchardt, Brett S....2019 | Mon. Wea. Rev. (2020) 148 (1): 183–209.Description:The 25–26 June 2015 nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS) from the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field project produced severe w...Personal Author:Hu, Junjun ;Fierro, Alexandre O....2020 | Mon. Wea. Rev. (2020) 148 (3): 1005–1028.Description:The recent successful deployment of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on board the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R series (...Personal Author:Stratman, Derek R. ;Yussouf, Nusrat...2020 | Wea. Forecasting (2020) 35 (1): 193–214.Description:A potential replacement candidate for the aging operational WSR-88D infrastructure currently in place is the phased array radar (PAR) system. The curr...Personal Author:Davies-Jones, Robert ;Wood, Vincent T....2020 | J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. (2020) 37 (6): 1117–1133.Description:Formulas are obtained for observed circulation around and contraction rate of a Doppler radar grid cell within a surface of constant launch angle. The...Personal Author:Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K. ;Brooks, Harold2019 | Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (6): 1999–2015.Description:Deadly tornadoes are rare events, but that level of rarity varies with many factors. In this work, we summarize and update past research on tornado fa...Personal Author:Lee, Temple R. ;Buban, Michael2020 | J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. (2020) 59 (6): 1091–1107.Description:The Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE) was a field campaign to investigate influences of different land surface types on the atmospheric bou...Personal Author:Krocak, Makenzie J. ;Brooks, Harold E.2020 | Wea. Forecasting (2020) 35 (1): 107–112.Description:One of the challenges of providing probabilistic information on a multitude of spatiotemporal scales is ensuring that information is both accurate and...Personal Author:Flora, Montgomery L. ;Skinner, Patrick S....2019 | Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (6): 1721–1739.Description:An object-based verification method for short-term, storm-scale probabilistic forecasts was developed and applied to mesocyclone guidance produced by ...Personal Author:Lai, Anwei ;Gao, Jidong...2019 | Mon. Wea. Rev. (2019) 147 (8): 2877–2900.Description:To improve severe thunderstorm prediction, a novel pseudo-observation and assimilation approach involving water vapor mass mixing ratio is proposed to...2020 | Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 363.Description:Weather surveillance radars routinely detect smoke of various origin. Of particular significance to the meteorological community are wildfires in fore...Personal Author:Dawson II, Daniel T. ;Roberts, Brett...2019 | Mon. Wea. Rev. (2019) 147 (11): 3935–3954.Description:In idealized, horizontally homogeneous, cloud model simulations of convective storms, the action of surface friction can substantially modify the near...Personal Author:Ryzhkov, Alexander V. ;Snyder, Jeffrey...2020 | Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 362.Description:The utilization of polarimetric weather radars for optimizing cloud models is a next frontier of research. It is widely understood that inadequacies i...
More +