Test of a Weather-Adaptive Dual-Resolution Hybrid Warn-on-Forecast Analysis and Forecast System for Several Severe Weather Events

Details

• Journal Title:
  Weather and Forecasting
• Personal Author:
  Wang, Yunheng ; Gao, Jidong ; Skinner, Patrick S. ; Knopfmeier, Kent ; Jones, Thomas ; Creager, Gerry ; Heiselman, Pamela L. ; Wicker, Louis J.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)
• Description:
  A real-time, weather adaptive, dual-resolution, hybrid Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) analysis and forecast system using the WRF-ARW forecast model has been developed and implemented. The system includes two components, an ensemble analysis and forecast component, and a deterministic hybrid three-dimensional ensemble–variational (3DEnVAR) analysis and forecast component. The goal of the system is to provide on-demand, ensemble-based, and physically consistent gridded analysis and forecast products to forecasters for making warning decisions. Both components, the WRF-DART system with 36 ensemble members and the hybrid 3DEnVAR system, assimilate radar data, satellite-retrieved cloud water path, and surface observations at 15-min intervals with dual-resolution capability. In the current hybrid configuration, one-way coupling of the two analysis systems is performed: ensemble covariances derived from the WRF-DART system are incorporated into the hybrid 3DEnVAR system with each data assimilation (DA) cycle. This study examines deterministic, 3-h forecasts launched from the hybrid 3DEnVAR analyses every 30 min for three severe weather events in 2017. The performance of the deterministic component is evaluated for four configurations: dual-resolution coupling, single-resolution coupling, forecasts initialized using a cloud analysis for reflectivity assimilation, and forecasts initialized from the WRF-DART ensemble mean. Quantitative and subjective evaluation of composite reflectivity and updraft helicity (UH) swath forecasts for the three events indicate that the dual-resolution strategy without the cloud analysis performs best among the four configurations and provides the most realistic prediction of reflectivity patterns and UH tracks.
• Keywords:
  Numerical weather forecasting
• Source:
  Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (6): 1807–1827.
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0071.1
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  Grant no. NA08OAR4320904
• Rights Information:
  Other
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:e7be0a417032d82c8da89389a41b3c1d5dd537b038cc6f51ad95132d06efef8e47de67b2359dc47143b3b5d84840a3ca3071522b9e6a251682252733a1ada11e
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26167/noaa_26167_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 15.96 MB ]