Test of a Weather-Adaptive Dual-Resolution Hybrid Warn-on-Forecast Analysis and Forecast System for Several Severe Weather Events

Wang, Yunheng; Gao, Jidong; Skinner, Patrick S.; Knopfmeier, Kent; Jones, Thomas; Creager, Gerry; Heiselman, Pamela L.; Wicker, Louis J.

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-19-0071.1

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i

Test of a Weather-Adaptive Dual-Resolution Hybrid Warn-on-Forecast Analysis and Forecast System for Several Severe Weather Events

2019
By Wang, Yunheng ; Gao, Jidong ; Skinner, Patrick S. ; ...
Source: Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (6): 1807–1827.

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Details:

Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Wang, Yunheng ; Gao, Jidong ; Skinner, Patrick S. ; Knopfmeier, Kent ; Jones, Thomas ; ... More +

Wang, Yunheng ; Gao, Jidong ; Skinner, Patrick S. ; Knopfmeier, Kent ; Jones, Thomas ; Creager, Gerry ; Heiselman, Pamela L. ; Wicker, Louis J. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)

CIMMS (Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) Less -
Description:

A real-time, weather adaptive, dual-resolution, hybrid Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) analysis and forecast system using the WRF-ARW forecast model has been developed and implemented. The system includes two components, an ensemble analysis and forecast component, and a deterministic hybrid three-dimensional ensemble–variational (3DEnVAR) analysis and forecast component. The goal of the system is to provide on-demand, ensemble-based, and physically consistent gridded analysis and forecast products to forecasters for making warning decisions. Both components, the WRF-DART system with 36 ensemble members and the hybrid 3DEnVAR system, assimilate radar data, satellite-retrieved cloud water path, and surface observations at 15-min intervals with dual-resolution capability. In the current hybrid configuration, one-way coupling of the two analysis systems is performed: ensemble covariances derived from the WRF-DART system are incorporated into the hybrid 3DEnVAR system with each data assimilation (DA) cycle. This study examines deterministic, 3-h forecasts launched from the hybrid 3DEnVAR analyses every 30 min for three severe weather events in 2017. The performance of the deterministic component is evaluated for four configurations: dual-resolution coupling, single-resolution coupling, forecasts initialized using a cloud analysis for reflectivity assimilation, and forecasts initialized from the WRF-DART ensemble mean. Quantitative and subjective evaluation of composite reflectivity and updraft helicity (UH) swath forecasts for the three events indicate that the dual-resolution strategy without the cloud analysis performs best among the four configurations and provides the most realistic prediction of reflectivity patterns and UH tracks.
Keywords:

[+]

Numerical weather forecasting
Source:

Wea. Forecasting (2019) 34 (6): 1807–1827.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0071.1
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA08OAR4320904
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:a90d962971cdab82b1cf0f050314bdfb3642c3907e3451dcb8dd0923c6fb490a
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/26167/noaa_26167_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF-15.96 MB]