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Coastal flooding in Southwest Florida during Hurricanes Irma and Ian



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Details

  • Journal Title:
    npj Natural Hazards
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    NOS (National Ocean Service)
  • Description:
    Collier County, southwest Florida, experienced catastrophic flooding and building losses during Hurricane Ian (Cat-4, 2022) and Hurricane Irma (Cat-3, 2017). This study evaluates how sea level rise (SLR) and hurricane characteristics influenced these events to inform future preparedness. A 3D vegetation-resolving surge-wave model coupled with a parametric hurricane wind and precipitation model was used to simulate flooding for both storms. Estimated structural losses were $126.3 M (Irma) and $1.95B (Ian), with NFIP-insured losses within 7–12% of FEMA claims. Ian’s inundation corresponded to a 100–10,000-year flood, while Irma’s was mostly ~100 years, based on comparison with ~300 synthetic storm simulations. Losses were comparable to those expected from a 100-year flood (Irma) and 3500-year flood (Ian). Sensitivity analyses revealed that SLR, higher intensity, larger size, slower speed, more perpendicular track, northern landfall, and high tide amplified Ian’s impact. Climate change-driven SLR and intensity increases substantially heightened flood risk and damages.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    npj Natural Hazards, 2(1)
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    2948-2100
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
  • License:
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY-NC-ND
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha-512:a322f0c66c050c87cf8a968879af9f6544b80f6e803b735148a4f7ec94581068390d44a425b46b81f429301e0c2410166bd08806b4f08c70565537500f778180
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 13.10 MB ]
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