Multi-month forecasts of marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extremes

Mogen, Samuel C.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Yeager, Stephen G.; Capotondi, Antonietta; Jacox, Michael G.; Bograd, Stephen; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Hazen, Elliot L.; Pozo Buil, Mercedes; Kim, Who; Rosenbloom, Nan

doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0

i

Multi-month forecasts of marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extremes

2024
By Mogen, Samuel C. ; Lovenduski, Nicole S. ; Yeager, Stephen G. ; ...

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Journal Title:

Nature Geoscience
Personal Author:

Mogen, Samuel C. ; Lovenduski, Nicole S. ; Yeager, Stephen G. ; Capotondi, Antonietta ; Jacox, Michael G. ; Bograd, Stephen ; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele ; Hazen, Elliot L. ; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ; Kim, Who ; Rosenbloom, Nan
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; SWFSC (Southwest Fisheries Science Center)
Description:

Marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extreme events are periods during which temperature and acidification reach statistically extreme levels (90th percentile), relative to normal variability, potentially endangering ecosystems. As the threats from marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extreme events grow with climate change, there is need for skilful predictions of events months to years in advance. Previous work has demonstrated that climate models can predict marine heatwaves up to 12 months in advance in key regions, but forecasting of ocean acidification extreme events has been difficult due to the complexity of the processes leading to extremes and sparse observations. Here we use the Community Earth System Model Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble to make predictions of marine heatwaves and two forms of ocean acidification extreme events, as defined by anomalies in hydrogen ion concentration and aragonite saturation state. We show that the ensemble skilfully predicts marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extreme events as defined by aragonite saturation state up to 1 year in advance. Predictive skill for ocean acidification extremes as defined by hydrogen ion concentration is lower, probably reflecting mismatch between model and observed state. Skill is highest in the eastern Pacific, reflecting the predictable contribution of El Niño/Southern Oscillation to regional variability. A forecast generated in late 2023 during the 2023–2024 El Niño event finds high likelihood for widespread marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extreme events in 2024.
Source:

Nature Geoscience, 17(12), 1261-1267
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0
ISSN:

1752-0894 ; 1752-0908
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

Accepted Manuscript
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:1d1d55986d65ffbaa32c60d3488146ce3f0f49585f5091bc952026a8f218cfe7a01952d0e27a0c3a2337b7fb227c79a60677379fbbe4336811862fe6825858f4
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71032/noaa_71032_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 39.06 MB ]

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