Summer atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Arctic Ocean and their influences on September sea ice extent: A cautionary tale

Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne; Barrett, Andrew P.; Boisvert, Linette N.

doi:10.1002/2016jd025161

i

Summer atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Arctic Ocean and their influences on September sea ice extent: A cautionary tale

2016
By Serreze, Mark C. ; Stroeve, Julienne ; Barrett, Andrew P. ; ...

Select the Download button to view the document

Please click the download button to view the document.

Details

Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Serreze, Mark C. ; Stroeve, Julienne ; Barrett, Andrew P. ; Boisvert, Linette N.
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)
Description:

Numerous studies have addressed links between summer atmospheric circulation patterns and interannual variability and the downward trend in total September Arctic sea ice extent. In general, low extent is favored when the preceding summer is characterized by positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over the central Arctic Ocean north of Alaska. High extent is favored when low pressure dominates. If such atmospheric patterns could be predicted several months out, these links provide an avenue for improved seasonal predictability of total September extent. We analyze detrended September extent time series (1979–2015), atmospheric reanalysis fields, ice age and motion, and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder data, to show that while there is merit to this summer circulation framework, it has limitations. Large departures in total September extent relative to the trend line are preceded by a wide range of summer circulation patterns. While patterns for the four years with the largest positive departures in September extent have below average SLP over the central Arctic Ocean, they differ markedly in the magnitude and location of pressure and air temperature anomalies. Differences in circulation for the four years with the largest negative departures are equally prominent. Circulation anomalies preceding Septembers with ice extent close to the trend also have a wide range of patterns. In turn, years (such as 2013 and 2014) with almost identical total September extent were preceded by very different summer circulation patterns. September ice conditions can also be strongly shaped by events as far back as the previous winter or spring.
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(19)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd025161
ISSN:

2169-897X ; 2169-8996
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:2ba6f566a64b815fc794426406df40032dbdf3b93c31082b84b00d01fc0d85519b68efe72192aaf224277f3da7a6c5b5d8e1b7888477e36fa1a620c84e215fca
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68058/noaa_68058_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 11.72 MB ]

ON THIS PAGE

Details

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.