The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic

Serreze, Mark C.; Meier, Walter N.

doi:10.1111/nyas.13856

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The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic

2018
By Serreze, Mark C. ; Meier, Walter N.
Source: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1436(1), 36-53

[PDF-2.03 MB]

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Journal Title:

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Personal Author:

Serreze, Mark C. ; Meier, Walter N.

Serreze, Mark C. ; Meier, Walter N. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) Less -
Description:

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7–10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice‐free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role.
Keywords:

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General Biochemistry, Genetics And Molecular Biology General Neuroscience History And Philosophy Of Science
Source:

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1436(1), 36-53
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13856
ISSN:

0077-8923;1749-6632;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Wiley
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA15OAR4310171
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Accepted Manuscript
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Library
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:4c76df697f4a271cec3afe7cfdd8b1ae01b771cf991c1c11d23c9f88894c7809
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/56929/noaa_56929_DS1.pdf
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The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic

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