Multi-decadal simulation of estuarine sedimentation under sea level rise with a response-surface surrogate model

Brand, Matthew W.; Guo, Leicheng; Stein, Eric D.; Sanders, Brett F.

doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103876

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Multi-decadal simulation of estuarine sedimentation under sea level rise with a response-surface surrogate model

2021
By Brand, Matthew W. ; Guo, Leicheng ; Stein, Eric D. ; ...
Source: Advances in Water Resources, 150, 103876

[PDF-2.25 MB]

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Journal Title:

Advances in Water Resources
Personal Author:

Brand, Matthew W. ; Guo, Leicheng ; Stein, Eric D. ; Sanders, Brett F.

Brand, Matthew W. ; Guo, Leicheng ; Stein, Eric D. ; Sanders, Brett F. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NOS (National Ocean Service)
Description:

Multi-decadal prediction of estuarine sedimentation with high-fidelity hydromorphodynamic models presents high computation costs, especially when accounting for stochasticity and uncertainty. A StochAstic model for Multi-decadaL Estuarine Sedimentation (SeAMLESS) is formulated here to support a specific decision-need related to resilience planning and coastal management: estimating future sedimentation and dredging within a sedimentation basin for different scenarios of sea level rise and rules for dredging. SeAMLESS combines a reduced-dimension process model and a response-surface surrogate model to yield an ordinary differential equation that can be integrated over stochastic time series of storm events. Applications show that SeAMLESS can predict probabilities and amounts of future basin sedimentation and dredging with minimal loss of accuracy, compared to a high-fidelity model, while delivering reduction in computational costs.
Keywords:

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Water Science and Technology
Source:

Advances in Water Resources, 150, 103876
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103876
ISSN:

0309-1708
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16NOS4780206
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Accepted Manuscript
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Library
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urn:sha256:84978bcebeafca12dd03ecbe08662ccb176305942de0f0a710d1a3605b841fab
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/57335/noaa_57335_DS1.pdf
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Multi-decadal simulation of estuarine sedimentation under sea level rise with a response-surface surrogate model

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