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Beach-level 24-hour forecasts of Florida red tide-induced respiratory irritation
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2022
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Source: Harmful Algae 111 (2022) 102149
[PDF-462.35 KB]
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Journal Title:Harmful Algae
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Description:An accurate forecast of the red tide respiratory irritation level would improve the lives of many people living in areas affected by algal blooms. Using a decades-long database of daily beach conditions, two conceptually different models to forecast the respiratory irritation risk level one day ahead of time are trained. One model is wind-based, using the current days’ respiratory level and the predicted wind direction of the following day. The other model is a probabilistic self-exciting Hawkes process model. Both models are trained on beaches in Florida during 2011--2017 and applied to the red tide bloom during 2018-2019. For beaches where there is enough historical data to develop a model, the model which performs best depends on the beach. The wind-based model is the most accurate at half the beaches, correctly predicting the respiratory risk level on average about 84% of the time. The Hawkes model is the most accurate (81% accuracy) at nearly all of the remaining beaches.
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Source:Harmful Algae 111 (2022) 102149
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Rights Information:Accepted Manuscript
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Compliance:Submitted
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