Wave Probabilities Consistent with Official Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Details

• Journal Title:
  Weather and Forecasting
• Personal Author:
  Sampson, Charles R. ; Hansen, James A. ; Wittmann, Paul A. ; Knaff, John A. ; Schumacher, Andrea
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere)
• Description:
  Development of a 12-ft-seas significant wave height ensemble consistent with the official tropical cyclone intensity, track, and wind structure forecasts and their errors from the operational U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers is described. To generate the significant wave height ensemble, a Monte Carlo wind speed probability algorithm that produces forecast ensemble members is used. These forecast ensemble members, each created from the official forecast and randomly sampled errors from historical official forecast errors, are then created immediately after the official forecast is completed.
• Keywords:
  Ensembles Forecasting Techniques Operational Forecasting Probability Forecasts/Models/Distribution
• Source:
  Weather and Forecasting, 31(6), 2035-2045
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0093.1
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  Other
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:b425db009af02e7b5f513db8a1fb6cb5acb77ac2c92c9a3c912a0e41515cf9dfabd7b873900c0d0aa98eccd57d5cdb95fa6cbddf0d39bfab16303962ef849c12
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/41109/noaa_41109_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.10 MB ]