Evaluation of Global Wave Probabilities Consistent with Official Forecasts

Sampson, Charles R.; Serra, Efren A.; Knaff, John A.; Cossuth, Joshua H.

doi:10.1175/waf-d-21-0037.1

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Evaluation of Global Wave Probabilities Consistent with Official Forecasts

2021
By Sampson, Charles R. ; Serra, Efren A. ; Knaff, John A. ; ...
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 36(5), 1891-1904

[PDF-3.09 MB]

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Sampson, Charles R. ; Serra, Efren A. ; Knaff, John A. ; Cossuth, Joshua H.

Sampson, Charles R. ; Serra, Efren A. ; Knaff, John A. ; Cossuth, Joshua H. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere)

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) Less -
Description:

The U.S. Navy is keenly interested in analyses and predictions of waves at sea due to their effects on important tasks such as shipping, base preparedness, and disaster relief. U.S. Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecast Centers routinely disseminate wind probabilities consistent with official TC forecasts worldwide, but do not do the same for wave forecasts. These probabilities are especially important at longer leads where TC forecast accuracy diminishes. This work describes global wave probabilities consistent with both the official TC forecasts and their wind probabilities. Real-time runs for 84 TCs between May 2018 and March 2019, with probabilities generated for 12- and 18-ft significant wave heights are used to calculate verification statistics.
Keywords:

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Forecasting Techniques Forecast Verification/Skill Operational Forecasting Probability Forecasts/Models/Distribution
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 36(5), 1891-1904
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-21-0037.1
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Journal Article
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CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:821fd9c1c8fadd5d244d0c6e9b2b22d89333f340b5b57b2bb68654bb331028ea
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/41793/noaa_41793_DS1.pdf
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Evaluation of Global Wave Probabilities Consistent with Official Forecasts

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